College Football Playoff Projections after Week 12
Two losses in the top seven opened the door for the Big 12 if its champion makes it through the gauntlet with just one loss. Though the Oklahoma Sooners haven’t been impressive, they and the Oklahoma State Cowboys represent an outside shot for the conference to make the playoff depending on how the next couple of weeks go.
Oregon and Michigan State losing clear the path for Cincinnati, as well as that’s one less Power Five champion they’ll have to contend with for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
After dominant performances in week 12, the Michigan Wolverines and the Ohio State Buckeyes will lock up for what could be an offensive explosion next week. The winner goes onto the Big 10 championship and has the inside track at a College Football Playoff berth. The loser is likely eliminated, but depending on the story of that game, could find itself still in the mix depending on what happened elsewhere.
Just Missed the Cut
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The Clemson Tigers looked like the Tigers of old in their dominant performance over No. 10 Wake Forest. Had someone in the 18-25 range lost or in Arkansas’ case, lost more emphatically, they would have made their debut in the College Football Playoff rankings.
25-21
Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs
24. Houston Cougars
23. Arkansas Razorbacks
22. UTSA Roadrunners
21. NC State Wolfpack
Though Arkansas fell to the Alabama Crimson Tide, the close loss on the road shouldn’t hurt them that much. The College Football Playoff committee has shown us that they’ll allow for some context and the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide to a razor-thin margin.
20-16
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20. San Diego State Aztecs
19. Pittsburgh Panthers
18. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
17. Iowa Hawkeyes
16. Utah Utes
Utah’s emphatic win over the Oregon Ducks gives them the biggest bump in the rankings, helping them jump from No. 23 to No. 16 while Wake Forest takes a slide after their loss to Clemson. That’s two losses in the last three weeks for Wake Forest. At the same time, their losses look better on paper to fellow ACC member Pitt.
15-11
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
15. Texas A&M Aggies
14. Michigan State Spartans
13. BYU Cougars
12. Wisconsin Badgers
11. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks take a great fall from their previous perch within the top three of the College Football Playoff rankings. The only thing they had going for them was their week one win over the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Ducks laid an egg in a game that they needed to solidify their standing in the College Football Playoff’s top four.
10. Oklahoma Sooners
Nov 20, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Kennedy Brooks (26) runs as Iowa State Cyclones defensive back Craig McDonald (27) defends during the second half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
The Oklahoma Sooners responded to their loss last week at the hands of the Baylor Bears and put on a nice defensive performance. What once seemed like a long shot to make the College Football Playoff, the Sooners now have a chance to close the season with two top 10 wins if they can knock off the Cowboys the next two weeks.
Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Ole Miss continues to enjoy the fruits of Matt Corral’s labor. The Heisman candidate threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in a game that was 24 to 9 at halftime. It’ll go down as a 14 point win, but the Rebels were up by 22 points before Vanderbilt scored to make it 31-17.
8. Baylor Bears
Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
It wasn’t a dominating performance for Baylor in their win over Kansas State, but they took care of business despite losing Gerry Bohanon in the first half to a hamstring injury. The Bears rushing attack piled up 174 yards on the ground.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
The Oklahoma State Cowboys continued their season of defensive dominance in their 23-0 shutout win over Texas Tech. A Texas Tech team that had put 41 points on the board against another solid defense in Iowa State. The Cowboys have been impressive and if they’re able to knock off Oklahoma this week, could put themselves in position to make a push for the College Football Playoff.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Georgia Tech had no answers on either side of the ball for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish were up 45-0 at halftime as Jack Coan went 15 of 20 for 285 yards and two touchdowns in the blowout. The Irish defense held Georgia Tech to 3 of 15 on third down. Notre Dame has put itself in a position for strong consideration for a berth in the College Football Playoff depending on how the rest of the season plays out.
5. Michigan Wolverines
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
While one of the top teams from Michigan was dominated (Michigan State), the other was dominant. Michigan put on a clinic offensively as Cade McNamara completed 75% of his passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Donovan Edwards had 10 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats
Albert Cesare, The Enquirer
The road for the Cincinnati Bearcats just got a bit clearer with the Oregon Ducks loss. As things stand, if they win, there’s a strong likelihood that they’re in the playoff as long as a Big 12 champion doesn’t make a push or the committee favors the Big 10 east runner up.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
The Alabama Crimson Tide got a solid win over ranked Arkansas, but it wasn’t an easy win. The defense looked vulnerable, allowing K.J. Jefferson and Treylon Burks to put up big numbers. At the same time, Bryce Young continued to cement his frontrunner status for the Heisman with 559 yards passing and five touchdowns. Alabama still has a tough road to the playoff ahead with matchups against Auburn (rivalry game) and Georgia (SEC Championship). With Oregon’s loss, there’s a chance that a two-loss Bama could find a way into the playoff depending on how the rest of the field plays out.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Adam Cairns, Columbus
Dominating. That’s really all that needs to be said about Ohio State’s 56-7 romp of Michigan State. The Buckeyes were up 21-0 after the first quarter and then 49-0 at halftime and it was over. They look like a completely different team that dropped their season opener to Oregon. Of all the teams in the top 10 in the College Football Playoff rankings, Ohio State might have the most impressive win all season.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The Georgia Bulldogs did exactly what a team of their caliber is supposed to do against a 4-6 Charleston Southern team from the FCS. Dominate. They played four quarterbacks and rushed for 233 yards on the ground on their way to the 56-7 win.
Georgia looks to be a lock for the College Football Playoff at this point. They finish the season with Georgia Tech, who just lost 55-0 to Notre Dame. Then they’ll play Alabama in the SEC title game, but a loss there likely wouldn’t eliminate the Bulldogs from playoff contention, just drop their seeding.
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