CFB best bets Week 5: 'Bama, OK State make statements on the road originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Week 5 of the college football season features a fantastic slate of games that will have a huge impact on the outcome of conference title races.
There are five (!) conference games on Saturday's schedule featuring two teams ranked inside the top 25 of the latest AP poll.
Here are our against-the-spread picks for the must-watch games of Week 5, with betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook (Season best bets record: 5-9)
No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss
Time/TV channel: Saturday, Oct. 1 at noon ET on ESPN
Spread: Ole Miss -7
The Wildcats are sizable road underdogs despite being higher ranked and having already beaten one decent SEC team in Florida earlier this season. Kentucky's defense has played fantastic in 2022, allowing just 13 points and 272.2 yards per game.
The Wildcats are 5-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus SEC opponents. Kentucky also has won eight consecutive games overall.
Here are some other interesting trends to consider:
Kentucky might lose this game, but it won't be by a touchdown or more.
Pick: Kentucky +7
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 20 Arkansas
Time/TV channel: Saturday, Oct. 1 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Spread: Alabama -17.5
The Crimson Tide are a really good team, obviously, but they have played only one decent opponent in four games and barely survived an upset to Texas in a 20-19 win. Arkansas lost its first game of the season in a 23-21 defeat to Texas A&M on a neutral field last week.
This matchup also features two of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. Bryce Young is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and having a spectacular season for Alabama. KJ Jefferson is a super-talented dual-threat quarterback who's tallied 1,215 total yards and 12 total touchdowns through four games.
It's still hard to bet against Alabama here. The Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and they have won 10 consecutive against the Razorbacks. Alabama also has a seven-game win streak on the road versus Arkansas. The Crimson Tide have won nine of their last 10 road matchups, too.
Young dominated Arkansas last season, throwing for 559 yards with five touchdowns and zero interceptions in an Alabama victory. He will lead the Crimson Tide to a double-digit win in Arkansas this weekend.
Pick: Alabama -17.5
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor
Time/TV channel: Saturday, Oct. 1 at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Spread: Baylor -2.5
Revenge will be on the mind of Mike Gundy's Oklahoma State squad this weekend. It was Baylor that defeated Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game last season.
Oklahoma State's offense is firing on all cylinders, leading the nation with 51.7 points scored per game, while racking up an average of 511.3 yards in those matchups. Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders is completing 65.3 percent of his pass attempts for 916 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception. Baylor has a good defense, but Oklahoma State has too many weapons at the skill positions.
The Cowboys are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games and 9-1 overall in their last 10 matchups. They will send a message to the rest of the Big 12 with a statement victory in Waco on Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5