College football odds: Let’s fade undefeated USC and back undefeated Kansas

There are more than a few enticing matchups for Week 6 of college football. I don’t, however, like to have a card that consists of a dozen plays. I want to really try to hone in on some matchups and stick to high-conviction wagers.

Here’s what I like for Week 6.

Ball State at Central Michigan OVER 63.5

The Cardinals and the Chippewas are pass-heavy offenses with really bad secondaries. You can hear my full reasoning for taking the over in the video above.

Arizona +13 vs. Oregon

I’m backing a heavy passing offense in Arizona against a horrendous Oregon secondary. You can read my full reasoning here.

Kansas +7 vs. TCU

The line opened at 4.5 but now that it’s at 7, it’s a buy. The Horned Frogs are getting so much respect after smashing the Oklahoma defense last week in a huge 55-24 win. TCU should have exploited the Sooners defense the way it did, with OU having had similar results the week prior against Kansas State. But now, TCU gets a mobile quarterback in Kansas’ Jaylon Daniels. The Jayhawks choose to be a run-heavy offense but actually, Daniels has a higher passing average and the same number of passing scores as TCU’s QB Max Duggan with way more mobility (over 300 rushing yards).

What makes this Kansas offense so strong is the offensive line, top five in the country. With both secondaries susceptible, I’m looking to Daniels to keep this competitive on the ground. Let’s not forget, TCU scored a last-second field goal to beat Kansas last year 31-28 as 21.5-point favorites. Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold has a stronger Kansas team this year and will continue to surprise.

Washington State +13 at USC

The spread opened at 11 with a lot of love coming in for the Trojans. USC is 5-0 straight-up but only 3-2 against the spread, failing to cover in back-to-back weeks. This will be the best passing offense the Trojans have faced all season. The Cougars are top 20 in passing yards with QB Cameron Ward throwing for 69% completion on over 1,400 yards. The USC defense is not ironclad, giving up 7.6 yards per pass to Arizona State, and surrendered 28 points and 441 yards of total offense to Stanford. I like the OVER in this matchup, but with the line jumping from 60.5 to 65, I’ll bite on Washington State to cover. Keep the turnovers to a minimum and the Cougars could pull the upset.