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College football betting: Plenty of opportunities to win with Colorado

Karl Dorrell could not have asked for a better start in his first year as head coach at Colorado.

The Buffaloes surprised everyone by starting the season with two upset victories against UCLA and at Stanford. They carried the momentum to a 4-0 start before losing to Utah. Their season ended at the Alamo Bowl where they were handily defeated 55-23 by Texas. The season didn't start how anyone expected, and it didn't end the way anyone wanted. It's hard to imagine having six games feeling like two seasons, but there was a stark contrast between the first four and the last two games.

Which Colorado team should we expect to see in 2021?

It's a hard question to answer because there is something to be said about Dorrell's ability to get the most of his group. The quarterback battle between Brendon Lewis and JT Shrout is something to pay close attention to. A new starting quarterback splitting reps isn't ideal for an offense even if the passing game isn't the focal point.

Colorado's offense runs through Jarek Broussard. The Pac-12 offensive player of the year ran for 895 yards averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. The wideouts include Brenden Rice (son of Jerry) and La'Vonte Shenault (brother of Laviska). Rice looks to earn an expanded role after making a big impact in limited snaps last season. It's going to take solid play at the quarterback position to put it all together.

The defense is led by a rock-solid secondary that ranked in the top 10. It's important to note, trouble came in a big way when they played tougher competition. This is a legitimate concern considering this year's schedule. They were trounced upfront allowing 495 yards rushing in those last two losses to Utah & Texas.

BOULDER, COLORADO - DECEMBER 12: Brenden Rice #2 of the Colorado Buffaloes returns a punt for 81 yards for a touchdown against the Utah Utes in the second quarter at Folsom Field on December 12, 2020 in Boulder, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Colorado's path to five wins

The first thing I noticed when I dove into the Buffaloes' schedule is the level of difficulty. Their non-conference opponents, Minnesota and Texas A&M, are very tough. Outside of Northern Colorado in the opener, Arizona might be the only other team they hold an edge in talent over. The win total for Colorado this season is 4.5 and the odds are +100 to the over, and -120 to the under at BetMGM.

Karl Dorrell's group proved to us last season they can deliver in the underdog role. Let's identify some critical games that will have a huge impact on whether Colorado can go over the 4.5 win total.

Sept. 18 vs. Minnesota: Typically a non-conference game isn't viewed as critical but the Buffs will most likely enter this game 1-1 on the season. A loss here followed up by likely losses at Arizona State and USC would have the Buffaloes hitting the bye week at 1-4. A win in this spot would put them at 2-3 with a chance to hit .500 hosting Arizona after the bye. Two vastly different scenarios from a team morale standpoint.

Oct. 30 at Oregon State: One of few soft spots on the backend of the schedule. Colorado must take advantage and capture win No. 4 here.

Oct 23 at Cal or Nov 13 at UCLA: The Buffaloes are going to have to steal one on the road to get five wins. The opportunity closes at UCLA as they finish the season against Washington and Utah.

How to bet a Colorado team with so much variance?

The Colorado football program is on the right path with Karl Dorrell but that doesn't guarantee it will be reflected in the team's final record. Per Phil Steele, Colorado's schedule is the ninth strongest in the country. The questions and lack of continuity at the quarterback position only add to the likelihood this will be a step back in the standings. Dorrell's ability to overachieve in 2020 should be commended, but I can't recommend betting on a repeat. The under 4.5 at -120 is the bet to make on the Buffaloes. If betting unders is not your thing, a more exciting approach is to wager on Colorado game by game and see how it fares in the pivotal matchups we discussed.

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