Advertisement

College Best Bets, Feb. 28: Iowa State vs Oklahoma, St. John's vs Butler, and More!

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for Wednesday, including Oklahoma at Iowa State, St. John's visiting Butler, plus Virginia versus Boston College.

Oklahoma at Iowa State (-9): O/U 136.0

Oklahoma beat Iowa State earlier in the season (71-63), so this is a home revenge spot for the Cyclones.

Oklahoma is coming off an emotional buzzer-beater OT win at rival Oklahoma State on Saturday, so this is a spot I do not expect to carry over at Iowa State.

West Virginia got out to a quick start at Iowa State on Saturday, so the Cyclones will be better prepared out the gate for Oklahoma.

The Sooners scored 30, 27, and 27 first-half points in the past three road games and when Oklahoma and Iowa State met earlier this season, Oklahoma led 32-28 at halftime.

Oklahoma plays at the 335th-quickest tempo on the road while shooting 29.6% from three (306th), 72.3% from the free-throw line (156th) and not forcing turnovers (351st). Not a remedy for success in what should be a grind every offensive possession.

Iowa State is 16-0 at home and dominated with the second-best ranked defense in the country. I think that defense stands up against Oklahoma.

I played Oklahoma's First Half Team Total Under 29.5 at -125 odds on DraftKings. I'd go down to 28.5 on FanDuel.

Pick: Oklahoma 1H Team Total Under 29.5 (1.5u)

St. John’s at Butler (-1.5): O/U 153.0

St. John's is coming off an emotional win at Madison Square Garden against Creighton after beating Georgetown following head coach Rick Pitino's postgame comments.

This is a letdown spot as St. John's heads to Butler to face a Bulldogs team that has lost four straight. In those four losses, Butler lost home games to Marquette and Creighton, plus added road losses at Villanova and Seton Hall.

While the record and the four-straight losses isn't encouraging, this is a similar spot as to our UCF ML play versus Texas Tech this past Saturday. This is a great buy-low spot on Butler.

St. John's beat Butler 86-70 at home earlier in the season with the Red Storm leading the entire 40 minutes. However, Butler has won eight of the past nine meetings at home versus St. John's dating back to 2015 (lone loss in 2022).

The Bulldogs have the edge on the glass and from three-point land (35.9% to 30.9%), but one area that stands out is the free-throw discrepancy. Butler shoots 85% at home in conference play from the charity stripe compared to St. John's hitting 71.1% in Big East road games.

I played Butler's ML at -118 odds and would play out to -130 by risking 1.5 units. I like this spot for the Bulldogs to avoid five straight losses and three consecutive at home.

Pick: Butler ML (1.5u)

Virginia at Boston College (-1): O/U 125.5

In the last three games, Virginia has scored 49, 41, and 44 points against Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina.

The Cavaliers offense went 8-of-39 from three (20.5%), 16-of-33 from the free-throw line (48.4%), and 47-of-125 from two (37.6%) during that three-game span.

While Boston College might not be the most threatning defense, this is a road game for Virginia, and the two have history of low-scoring games.

Boston College beat Virginia 63-48 at home last year (led 28-21 at half) and lost 61-49 in the previous home game in Boston, 61-49 (UVA led 29-26 at half).

In the last two games, Boston College just gave up 81 and 84 points on the road to NC State and Florida State, the Eagles play at a much slower tempo at home.

Boston College ranks 10th out of 15 in ACC in tempo and 226th nationally over the last 10 overall games, while Virginia is the second-slowest paced team in the country.

I will go Under 29.5 for Virginia's First Half Team Total at -110 odds on FanDuel. I have to see this offense break 30 points in 20 minutes to believe it. I would go down to 28.5.

Pick: Virginia 1H Team Total Under 29.5 (1u)

Season Record: 52-41 (55.9%) +5.9 units

Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.