Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he's betting on the Dayton Flyers versus Houston Cougars.
Dayton at Houston (-12.5): O/U 130.5
Dayton and Houston play at the 297th and 322nd ranked overall paces, so with both defenses hovering around 300th in terms of opponents' average possession length we should expect a lot of long possessions as defense should reign supreme.
Houston owns the No. 1 ranked defense through five games, forcing the fourth-highest turnover percentage (27.2%), owning the sixth-best two-point defensive percentage (37.7%), and top 30 ranks in blocks, steals, and defensive effective field goal percentage (41.5%).
Dayton is turning the ball over 18.7% of the time (204th) and ranks 226th in offensive rebounding (27.6%), so I expect one-and-done's for the Flyers' offense a majority of the time.
The Flyers scored 63 or more points in every game this season, while Houston held its first four opponents to 50 points or fewer until Utah posted 66 points.
Dayton scored 63, 66, and 70 points against SIU Edwardsville, Northwestern, and LSU, so they have played against slower-paced opponents, but none as talented as Houston's.
Additionally, this will be Dayton's fourth straight road or neutral court game going from Northwestern to facing LSU and St. John's back-to-back days. I don't like this spot for Dayton even with its fans going hard.
I think Houston's defense can lock Dayton up and the tempo of this game fits an Under in general, but especially for the team total on the underdog playing up in competition. Give me the Flyers' Team Total Under 58.5 at -115 odds down to 57.5.
Pick: Dayton Team Total Under 58.5 (1u)
*game odds courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 9-1 (90%) +7.85 units
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