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In the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast, Liz Loza and Andy Behrens look at the Chicago Bears tight end in his third NFL season
ANDY BEHRENS: You know, I actually thought, when we were talking tight ends, you might bring up Cole Kmet. He's problematic for me is what I'll say. I see a lot of hype about him, a lot of hype about him. I would love to be able to join in.
He has not distinguished himself. Like, they've tried to make him a thing in the past.
LIZ LOZA: No. No, no.
ANDY BEHRENS: Granted, not with great quarterbacks. He's had long stretches where he gets decent target totals. They've thrown the ball to him in goal-to-go situations, in red zone situations. And to this point in his career-- and, as I say this, I can hear Matt Harmon in my head telling me that drops don't matter.
But he's not-- like, this is not some sticky-fingered tight end, right? Like, this is not the best hands in the business sort of tight end. I think he could be a thing.
I think there's a lot of targets available here. Granted, it's going to be, presumably, I think, a maybe slower-paced, run-heavy offense. But he could still see 90, 100, 110 targets, something like that. And that is really useful at the tight end position.
I just have not been-- he's not one of those guys that's really flashed for me in the past. And, obviously, I either watch or I rage-watch the Bears every week. And he just hasn't jumped out to me.
I can see the volume argument for Kmet. I'm probably-- there's almost always gonna be somebody who wants to reach for Kmet ahead of me, though. I will say that.
LIZ LOZA: So I love this cogent, fair, and balanced analysis. My issue with Kmet and not wanting to make him a thing is that I don't think that that's being fully fair. When we look at how Nagy decided to call a play, and then, when there was an end zone opportunity, it was Graham who got the snap, right? Like, there was a rotation, and Jimmy Graham caught 14 flipping balls last year, and three of them were touchdowns.
Like, I don't need to be a calculus major to understand what that ratio looks like. So I do think that Kmet-- it isn't a volume-- it is a volume argument. My fear, which I'm not hearing a lot of people talking about, is that, like, last year, we were all Super high on TJ Hockenson, which we can all agree is a better talent coming out of your Iowa, University of Iowa, right?
You know TJ Hockenson-- incredible talent, one of the first, like, I remember, oh, my god, he's a baby Gronk. He can do all the things, oh, why [INAUDIBLE]. And yet-- so we were excited, like, myself included, about him in Detroit because it was the volume argument.
And then defenses adjusted. So defenses--
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah.
LIZ LOZA: --are gonna adjust. And if Kmet doesn't have the hands that even Hockenson has, what good is the volume if the efficiency is so mediocre? And I guess the answer is it doesn't matter because you're taking Kmet in double-digit rounds, maybe nine--
ANDY BEHRENS: Yeah.
LIZ LOZA: --maybe the ninth round if somebody really reaches right. But you were having to take Hockenson in the fourth or fifth. And so given the value, like, I have Kmet projected for 55 grabs, 550 yards, and five touchdowns. That's top 15 territory.
If I'm getting him in the 10th round, I'm OK with that. But I do think you make an excellent point about people being very excited about him for the third year running, second year running, and maybe oversupposing.