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Chiefs-Giants DFS Picks: Patrick Mahomes set for monster bounce-back game

·7 min read
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By Jeff Hicks, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

Yahoo is expanding its daily fantasy football options in 2021 with a single-game offering. Yahoo has a roster construction of one "Superstar" that scores at a 1.5 multiplier, while the remaining four FLEX roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the "Superstar" salary does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.

Two teams at a crossroads halfway through the season meet up Monday night. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will try to get back to .500 against Daniel Jones and a shorthanded New York Giants squad.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players who can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players who could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Vegas Total and Spread

Kansas City is a 10.5-point home favorite with an over/under of 52.5 points. The Chiefs have an implied team total of 31.5 points, while the Giants implied team total is 21 points.

[Visit 4for4, where 92% of subscribers made the playoffs, for more]

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

The is an opportunity for both offenses to make their mark. The Chiefs get to reset after last week’s debacle that appeared to almost cost the offense Patrick Mahomes ($41) to a concussion. Aside from Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR), the offensive weapons are healthy and ready to roll. The offensive line will have to show more signs of chemistry and competence after folding to the Tennessee Titans front-four eight days ago. Mike Remmers (knee) is the only lineman questionable for Monday.

The Giants defense ($10) allows the 20th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses according to aFPA. The defense is best against quarterbacks (13th) and tight ends (14th) but has not faced a 1-2 tandem at those positions like Mahomes and Travis Kelce ($30). The Giants can be had by wide receiver depth. Their defense has allowed a touchdown to multiple receivers in two of the past three games. Tyreek Hill ($31) is the clear alpha among Chiefs receivers, so it is up for grabs between Demarcus Robinson ($10), Mecole Hardman ($13), and Byron Pringle ($12) to show up and take what the Giants are giving. Adoree Jackson and James Bradberry combine to make one of the better cornerback tandems in the NFL but will have their hands full with the speed coming from K.C.’s receiving corps.

Darrel Williams ($20) has the best matchup among Kansas City offensive players and one of the best at the running back position this week. The Giants are 24th in aFPA and Williams is the clear backfield touch leader without CEH. Williams has out-carried Jerick McKinnon ($13) 26-3 in the two weeks since Edwards-Helaire went on IR. McKinnon has the edge in passing game work as we saw in the most negative of game scripts Week 7.

The Giants have had some of the worse injury luck and will be without Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Kenny Golladay (ankle). Wideouts Sterling Shepard ($17) and Kadarius Toney ($18) are questionable but Shepard is expected to play. Toney traveled with the team and is truly iffy. His speed would be sorely missed against one of the worst defenses against receivers. Daniel Jones ($28) should have enough time to work and pick apart the Chiefs defense ($12). Only three teams are worse at allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Chiefs.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 24: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants in action against the Carolina Panthers at MetLife Stadium on October 24, 2021 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. New York Giants defeated the Carolina Panthers 25-3. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Daniel Jones has a juicy matchup against the Chiefs and is just $28 in Yahoo's single-game DFS contest. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

Evan Engram ($14) is off the injury report for the Giants and will face a linebacking crew without Anthony Hitchens (triceps) and potentially without cornerback Charvarius Ward (foot). The Giants are without arguable two of their best pass-catchers in Golladay and Barkley, and a throwback performance from Engram would help open the second level for Devontae Booker ($15). He has 26 carries and six catches in two games without Barkley.

[Play in Yahoo's $100K Single Game Baller for NYG vs. KC]

Close, low-scoring game

  • Patrick Mahomes

  • Darrel Williams

  • Travis Kelce

  • Chiefs defense

  • Daniel Jones

  • Devontae Booker

  • Giants defense

Close, high-scoring game

  • Patrick Mahomes

  • Darrel Williams

  • Tyreek Hill

  • Travis Kelce

  • Daniel Jones

  • Devontae Booker

  • Darius Slayton

  • Sterling Shepard

  • Kadarius Toney (if active)

  • Evan Engram

Blowout for home team

  • Patrick Mahomes

  • Darrel Williams

  • Tyreek Hill

  • Mecole Hardman

  • Byron Pringle

  • Demarcus Robinson

  • Travis Kelce

  • Chiefs defense

  • Daniel Jones

  • Devontae Booker

  • Sterling Shepard

Blowout for road team

  • Daniel Jones

  • Devontae Booker

  • Sterling Shepard

  • Darius Slayton

  • Kadarius Toney

  • John Ross

  • Evan Engram

  • Giants defense

  • Patrick Mahomes

  • Jerick McKinnon

  • Tyreek Hill

  • Travis Kelce

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Byron Pringle ($12) and John Ross III ($10)

Aggression on offense is something both offenses need to do Monday. Pringle’s ceiling on Yahoo’s platform is 15.2 fantasy points according to 4for4’s Floor & Ceiling projections. Pringle and Ross both lead their teams in average target depth among active players (min. two targets per game).

Low-Salary Volatile Plays

Demarcus Robinson ($10)

Robinson only trails Pringle in average target depth among Chiefs pass-catchers. He only has two red zone targets, but that is more than Pringle if you pay down for a secondary Chiefs receiver.

Dante Pettis ($11)

Since being activated prior to Week 6, Pettis is third on the Giants in targets, expected touchdowns (xTD), and air yards. Pettis is the anti-John Ross with a 6.4 average target depth.

Eli Penny ($10)

Penny received nine carries in Week 7’s 25-3 win over the Carolina Panthers. If the Giants do to the Chiefs what the Titans did last week, Penny fits in a garbage time narrative as the Giants preserve Booker until Saquon Barkley returns.

Josh Gordon ($10)

Is this the week Gordon gets involved as a regular in the Chiefs offense?

Superstar Picks

Patrick Mahomes ($41)

If there is one player looking to bounce back the most from Week 7’s embarrassment, it is Mahomes. His yards per attempt have been under 6.0 two of the past three weeks, both losses. That jumps to 9.0 in wins this season.

Daniel Jones ($28)

Quarterbacks with a rushing floor always stick out. After two down weeks on the ground, Jones rushed for 28 yards in Week 7’s win. If Jones keeps his powder dry and does not throw an interception, he would be the fourth signal-caller to leave with a clean sheet through the air against Kansas City. The Chiefs have not picked off an opposing QB twice in three home games.

Sterling Shepard ($17)

Shepard is the only Giants wideout to reach double-digit targets twice this season. He also turned in double-digit half-point PPR performances in both those games. Dante Pettis is the only other Giants receiver to top 20% in air yard and target market share when active.

Travis Kelce ($30)

I struggled between Kelce and Darrel Williams because of Williams’s matchup and the Chiefs' offensive line concerns on pass protection, but I chose Kelce because I expected Mahomes to come out firing. Tyreek Hill can only avoid one of Adoree Jackson and James Bradberry on the outside, leaving Kelce to match up against a linebacker or safety. Among 85 graded safeties on Pro Football Focus, only one active Giants safety is in the top 50. Asking a linebacker to cover Kelce is as good as waving a white flag on defense. Kelce is also one of 4for4's top Week 8 breakout receiving options.

This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com

Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.

More from 4for4.com: The Training Room: Week 8 Injury Updates

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