Cheap speed: Late-round stolen base options for 2020 fantasy baseball drafts
Not so long ago, a player needed to swipe at least 30 bags (and often more) to have any hope of getting his name on the back of the stolen base leaders’ baseball card. Leading either league in steals required 70, minimum. It was simply not possible to challenge Rickey Henderson, Vince Coleman, Willie Wilson or Tim Raines with, like, 50 stolen bases. Those burners could easily race past such a modest total by mid-season, on their way to 80 or 90 or 100.
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But today, no one is threatening triple-digit steals. In fact, no player has made a serious run at 50 over the past two seasons. Last year's stolen base leader, Mallex Smith, swiped 46 bags. Only seven other players even reached 30.
So ... we are not exactly living in the golden age of base-stealing.
Still, stolen bases remain one of the five standard fantasy categories for position players, which means we need to address them — either on draft day or via the wire. Ideally, you will get your steals not from single-stat specialists like Smith, but from players who can actually contribute across multiple categories. Of course, not everyone can land, say, Ronald Acuna Jr. or Francisco Lindor or Trevor Story in the first round. You may need to address stolen bases in the end-game, in the final round or two of your draft.
Thus, our mission today is to identify the cheapest of cheap speed. Dirt-cheap speed, if you will.
We're looking for potential stolen base sources going outside the top-200 picks. Among the names who just miss the cut here are Cavan Biggio (ADP 161.8), Byron Buxton (188.0), Kyle Tucker (192.5), Garrett Hampson (194.9) and Scott Kingery (196.0). Nice options, all, but we're digging a bit deeper.
We should also mention that none of the players listed here are serious candidates to steal 30 or 40 bases. These days, you don't really need to address the category with high-volume runners. It's enough to simply find a few usable players who can swipe 15-20 bags, assuming good health. Every name here has a clear path to playing time, with speed enough to help the fantasy community.
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres (ADP 262.2)
Grisham swiped 38 bases in the Carolina league back in 2017 and he stole a dozen last season in the high minors before his promotion to the majors. Milwaukee shipped him to the Padres in the Luis Urias deal this offseason, so an everyday role awaits. Batting average is a small concern, but he demonstrated on-base skills in the minors (.376 OBP) and he's a clear 20/20 threat.
Jon Berti, 3B/SS/OF, Miami Marlins (ADP 245.4)
OK, it's possible the 30-year-old Berti is going to end up as a one-category speed specialist, which is not ideal. But at least he brings positional flexibility to the table. He never hit for average in the minors until 2018, when he cracked the code and slashed .296/.384/.446 across multiple levels. He's stolen 270 bases over the course of his minor league career, with two seasons of 40-plus. If he hits, he should get regular plate appearances in a super-utility role, which should lead to being an asset in the steals department.
Kevin Newman, 2B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (212.3)
Eligibility at both middle-infield spots is one of Newman's best fantasy traits, and respectable speed is another. He swiped 28 bags at Triple-A in 2018 and 16 in the bigs last year. Newman also cleared the fence 12 times last season while batting .308, and he's expected to hit at the top of the lineup this year.
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (248.2)
Before the sports world stopped, Carlson was loudly making his case for an early-season role with the Cards. He slashed .313/.436/.469 this spring, coming off a monster season in the high minors. Carlson established himself as an elite fantasy prospect last year, batting .292 with 26 homers, 62 XBHs, and 20 steals. Whenever he arrives in St. Louis, you’ll want him.
Sam Hilliard, OF, Colorado Rockies (250.5)
Drafting Hilliard has been my finishing move in multiple leagues so far. He should be something like an everyday player for the Rockies, coming off a promising 2019 cameo. Hilliard hit 35 homers and swiped 22 bags at Triple-A Albuquerque last season, then delivered another seven bombs and two steals for Colorado. His power potential is clear enough, plus he stole 20-plus bases in four straight minor league seasons. He's precisely the sort of high-upside flier you should take in every league.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays (241.8)
Hat-tip to The Athletic's Mike Salfino for unearthing tracking data on Hernandez, revealing that, um ... wow, is this dude fast. According to Statcast, Hernandez's sprint speed last season was in the 94th percentile, a blistering 29.1 feet per second. We shouldn't need to tell you there's more to base-stealing than pure speed, but wheels are clearly required. Hernandez has hit 48 bombs over the past two seasons (striking out a zillion times), so he's already an asset in one stat. He has the skillset to reach double-digit steals if he's allowed to run. In the minors, Hernandez produced three straight 30-steal seasons (2014-16).
Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Cleveland Indians (251.5)
Here's the sort of boring vet who costs next-to-nothing at the draft table, yet helps in a big way in deep leagues. Hernandez has landed on a team that's willing to run (103 SB in 2019) and he has multiple double-digit speed seasons on his resume. He's also a .277 career hitter who's homered 29 times over the past two seasons. You don't need to consider Hernandez in shallower mixed formats, but if you're in a larger league with a middle-infield spot to fill, he's a preferred final round option.
[Yahoo Rankings: Overall | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
Nick Madrigal, 2B/SS, Chicago White Sox (247.2)
Madrigal rose from High-A to Triple-A last season, raking at every stop. He slashed .311/.377/.414 across three levels, including a .331/.398/.424 stint at Triple-A Charlotte. Somehow, he struck out just 16 times in 532 plate appearances. Sixteen. Ridiculous. Madrigal also stole 35 bags last year, so he profiles as a multi-category contributor. It won't be long before he's hitting at the top of a fun/frisky Chicago lineup.
