CFB Week 5 DFS Optimizer Lineup Breakdown

·8 min read

NBC Sports Edge Optimizer Draft Kings Lineup

QB - Matt Corral, Ole Miss | $9,200 | 35 Points = 3.80 Points Per Thousand

RB - Kyren Williams, ND | $5,000 | 20.3 Points = 4.06 PPT

WR - Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss | $4,800 | 26.7 Points = 5.56 PPT

WR - Drake London, USC | $8,500 | 28.7 Points = 3.38 PPT

WR - Bo Melton, Rutgers | $4,900 | 17.1 Points = 3.49 PPT

Flex - C’Bo Flemister, ND | $3,000 | 13.6 Points = 4.53 PPT

S-Flex -Jack Coan, ND | $6,000 | 20.1 Points = 3.35 PPT

Projected Total Points = 187.3


NBC Sports Edge Optimizer FanDuel Lineup

QB - Matt Corral, Ole Miss | $10,500 | 32 Points = 3.05 PPT

RB - Tyler Badie, Missouri | $10,300 | 23.4 Points = 2.27 PPT

RB - Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State | $9,000 | 21.2 Points = 2.36 PPT

WR - Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss | $6,400 | 20.6 Points = 3.22 PPT

WR - Ty Fryfogle, Indiana | $6,900 | 13.8 Points = 2.00 PPT

WR - Bo Melton, Rutgers | $6,800 | 13.9 Points = 2.04 PPT

S-Flex - Emory Jones, Florida| $10,000 | 25.5 Points = 2.55 PPT

Projected Total Points = 150.4


Fade the Ole Miss/Alabama game at your own peril, as their 63-48 game went nuclear with an astounding 1,370 yards of total offense between the two programs. Accordingly, The Optimizer loves Corral and also is strongly backing preseason Ole Miss projected WR1, Braylon Sanders, as his $4,800 price ranks just 32nd on the Draft Kings wide receiver salary chart and 39th on FanDuel. Though he started slow, Sanders has a TD reception in each of his last two games…..Despite the matchup @ Penn State, Ty Fryfogle has received at least 8 targets in all four games this season, culminating with his game against WKU last week when he caught 10-of-16 passes for 98 yards. The issue with Fryfogle is he dropped 5 of his 26 catchable targets for a ghastly 19% drop rate which ranks third-worst in the country….Drake London leads the country in targets with 55, so if you’re going for security in your DK wide receiver build, you could do a helluva lot worse despite his hefty price tag. He is getting a Michael Pittman-esque workload in SoCal….Bo Melton is the unquestioned WR1 for Rutgers, receiving an average of 9 looks per game and scoring a minimum of 14.1 fantasy points over his first three contests. He is priced just above the aforementioned Sanders at $4,900, which feels like recency bias coming off a four catch, 26-yards showing against Michigan last week in a slow-paced affair. With Ohio State struggling to suppress explosiveness, ranking 64th in EPA/Play and allowing 6.9 yards per pass, Melton’s production will be closer to his first three weeks…..Kyren Williams’ $5K cost is borderline insulting. He will be ridden hard and put away wet in a huge matchup against Cinci. Williams saw 18 carries for 33 yards in a game played at a snail’s pace with a backup QB in the game. Even more surprisingly, he didn’t see a single target after reeling in 11-of-12 catch opportunities in his first three games. He’s bound to be heavily rostered at his current rate…..Emory Jones carries a steep $10K price tag on FanDuel, but after the Florida signal caller ran for 144 yards and completed 21-of-27 passes with two touchdowns last week in a 38-14 rout of Tennessee, he is back in The Optimizer’s good graces. It will be interesting to see how they fare against a strong Kentucky defense that ranks sixth in yards per play allowed (3.96) and seventh in yards per pass allowed (5.2)....Deuce Vaughn continues to be the engine of the Kansas State offense, posting at least 20.5 points in each of his four games this year. Even when he was bottled up on the ground by a stout Oklahoma State front after Will Howard got hurt and they stacked the box on him, Vaughn still caught five passes for 73 yards and a touchdown. He’s not just matchup proof, he’s gameplan-proof. To quote the band KISS’ classic 70’s tune of the same name - ”So baby if you’re feeling good, and baby if you’re feeling nice. You know your man is working hard...He’s worth a DEUCE!” (That's for you JL!)

Froton Adjusted Draft Kings Optimizer Lineup

QB - Matt Corral, Miss | $9,200 | 35 Points = 3.80 PPT

RB - TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio St. | $6,600 | 23.1 Points = 3.50 PPT

RB - Kyren Williams, ND | $5,000 | 20.3 Points = 4.06 PPT

WR - Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest | $5,200 | 12 Points = 2.31 PPT

WR - Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss | $7,500 | 23.5 Points = 3.13 PPT

WR - Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss | | $4,800 | 9.5 Points = 1.98 PPT

Flex - Josh Johnson, Louisville | $3,600 | 7.1 Points = 1.97 PPT

S-Flex - Sam Hartman, Wake Forest | $7,500 | 19.5 Points = 2.60 PPT

Projected Total Points = 150


Froton Adjusted FanDuel Optimizer Lineup

QB - Matt Corral, Ole Miss | $10,800 | 32 Points = 3.05 PPT

RB - Tiyon Evans, Tennessee | $7,400 | 12.8 Points = 1.73 PPT

RB - Pat Garwo, BC | $6,100 | 12.2 Points = 2.00 PPT

WR - John Metchie, Alabama | $8,500 | 14.7 Points = 1.73 PPT

WR - Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss | $8,800 | 20.3 Points = 2.31 PPT

WR - Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss| | $7,900 | 13.7 Points = 1.73 PPT

S-Flex - C.J. Stroud, Ohio State | $10,800 | 21.6 Points = 2.00 PPT

Projected Total Points = 127.2


I kicked around rostering Bryce Young instead of Corral, since he is deservedly the most expensive QB on each slate. However, going with the Ole Miss signal caller allows me to produce a more complete roster with the $800 savings on DK and $700 on FanDuel. I wouldn’t blame someone for paying the premium, as I think Young probably leads the main slate in QB points. Accordingly, i’m going all-in on the Ole Miss passing attack by also rostering Drummond and Mingo…..TreVeyon Henderson has been a monster for the Buckeyes, posting a gaudy 71.5 points over his past two games. Though Henderson is priced as the 10th most expensive running back, The Optimizer thinks he puts up 23.1 points which is the third highest estimate on the DK main slate, behind only Bijan Robinson ($8,700) and Tyler Badie ($8,200) who are both significantly more expensive. He’s a terrific play at $6,600…..Wake Forest WR Jaquarii Roberson was wildly productive last year, with PFF College bestowing a 92.9 receiving grade on him in 2020 which ranked second in the nation. Only Alabama first-round selection DeVonta Smith ranked higher. This year, undefeated Wake Forest has spread the ball around more than last season with A.T. Perry (81%) and Taylor Morin (93%) eclipsing Roberson’s 67% catch rate. As the team’s primary slot receiver, Roberson is still leading the team in targets and looked excellent against Virginia last game, reeling in four passes for 91 yards in the contest. With Wake Forest averaging the ninth most points per drive in the country and operating as the 12th most efficient passing offense according to CFB Winning Edge’s analytics model, Roberson presents a significant value at his $5,200 investment….I learned my lesson last week backing a punchless Missouri defense against Boston College in the wake of losing their star QB Phil Jurkovec to a hand injury. BC went on to pummel the Tigers for 275 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry with Pat Garwo serving as their battering ram, accounting for 175 yards and two touchdowns. With BC returning four All-ACC caliber offensive linemen, they’ve pivoted from a pass-first offense that posted just 104 rushing yards per game in 2020 to a power-run scheme that ranks 19th in success rate and 14th in overall rushing efficiency. With Clemson losing both starting defensive tackles, Bryan Bresee and Tyler Davis, in addition to starting ILB and team captain James Skalski missing the second half against NC State, the BC run game should continue to prosper, making Garwo an attractive low-cost RB on the FanDuel slate at his current RB37 rate…..Tennessee running back Tiyon Evans is this week’s beneficiary of Missouri’s 126th ranked rush defense, as Evans is averaging 14 carries per game in addition to being a contributor in the passing game by securing 3-of-5 passes for 71 yards last game. The five-foot-eleven, 220-pound tailback should have his way with the porous Tigers defensive front….With Louisville WR Braden Smith confirmed out for the remainder of the year, that will mean more snaps for Josh Johnson, who logged a season high 44 snaps against Florida State last week. With the Cardinals’ primary slot receiver priced at the bargain basement price of $3,600, i’m rolling the dice that he receives 7+ targets in a game where Louisville will need to score to keep pace with the Demon Deacons.