HITTING THEIR STRIDE
The Buffalo Bulls are coming off a heart-stomping loss to Kent State – but they're in great position to bounce back as they host the Toledo Rockets in Wednesday night MACtion. The Bulls watched a 27-6 fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 30-27 loss to the Golden Flashes, but can take solace in the fact that their elite rush attack remained stout. Buffalo had 245 yards on the ground vs. Kent State (4.8 YPC) and now boasts the No. 17 rush attack in the nation at 226.5 yards per contest. And that's bad news for a Rockets defense that has allowed opposing teams to gain an average of 200.6 yards per game on the ground.
Add in the fact that Buffalo's run defense (88.7 YPG against, fifth-best in FBS) could make things a lot more difficult on Toledo's No. 14 rush attack, and we see the Bulls riding their ground advantage to a comfortable cover.
ZIP FOR AKRON?
You could hardly be blamed for wondering if the Akron Zips know which way the end zone is. The Zips come into Wednesday's MAC encounter with host Miami (Ohio) with the distinction of being the lowest-scoring team in the country at 10.6 points per game. Their 2019 lowlight reel includes a pair of shutout losses and four other games in which they scored seven or fewer points. The Redhawks are salivating at the prospect of facing such an anemic offense, especially after having built plenty of momentum on the defensive end by limiting Bowling Green to 275 total yards in last week's 44-3 victory.
The safest play here is to take the Under on Akron's team total – but if you get a prop option on a Miami (Ohio) shutout, you should consider throwing a few bucks on it. This one could be ugly.
WHOP UPSIDE THE HEAD
The Indiana Hoosiers might be without one of the top receiving threats in the nation for Saturday's Big 12 encounter with the visiting Michigan Wolverines. Whop Philyor's status is in doubt after the junior wideout suffered a head injury and was forced out of last weekend's loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions. Head coach Tom Allen wouldn't comment on Philyor's status following practice earlier in the week, and he could be headed for a game-time designation. Philyor's absence would be a massive one for the Hoosiers; he ranks second in the Big Ten in receptions (61) and third in receiving yards (863).
Indiana is already behind the 8-ball against the powerhouse Wolverines, and not having Philyor at full strength – or at all – makes Michigan a strong ATS pick.
MOORE TIME OFF?
Purdue has fared well from a cover perspective in Rondale Moore's absence – and they'll probably have to face that reality for at least one more game. Moore has been out since suffering a hamstring injury Sept. 28 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm told reporters he wasn't "truly optimistic" that Moore would return for Saturday's game against the host Wisconsin Badgers. Moore got off to a blistering start to the 2019 season with 24 receptions for 344 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games, but has just five catches for 43 yards since.
Purdue is 5-1 ATS in six games with Moore sidelined, but will likely struggle against a Wisconsin defense that ranks third in the nation in pass defense and sixth in scoring defense. We like the Badgers to keep Purdue below its team point total.