CFB futures market: Week 12

Thor Nystrom
·7 min read

Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.

Heisman odds

Player

Position

Team

This week

Last week

Justin Fields

QB

Ohio State Buckeyes

225

150

Mac Jones

QB

Alabama Crimson Tide

250

160

Trevor Lawrence

QB

Clemson Tigers

250

180

Kyle Trask

QB

Florida Gators

250

750

Zach Wilson

QB

BYU Cougars

2700

2500

Ian Book

QB

Notre Dame Irish

8000

2500

D’Eriq King

QB

Miami Hurricanes

8000

2500

DeVonta Smith

WR

Alabama Crimson Tide

10000

2500

Najee Harris

RB

Alabama Crimson Tide

10000

4000

Spencer Rattler

QB

Oklahoma Sooners

10000

10000

Travis Etienne

RB

Clemson Tigers

10000

10000

Kellen Mond

QB

Texas A&M Aggies

10000

10000

Sam Ehlinger

QB

Texas Longhorns

N/A

10000

  • Ohio State QB Justin Fields remained the frontrunner on PointsBets’ Heisman board this week, but interestingly he can be had for a better price this week -- and he didn’t necessarily separate himself any from the field.

  • Fields, who was the +150 frontrunner last week, remains atop the board at +225 this week. Fields’ game against Maryland last Saturday was canceled due to COVID. If Fields played in, for instance, the SEC, the game would have been rescheduled -- but the Big 10 rules games disrupted by COVID as no-contest cancelations. That’ll deprive Fields of stats from one game against a cake defense.

  • Speaking of the differences with SEC COVID policies, Mac Jones’ game was also disrupted last Saturday, but whereas Ohio State-Maryland was canceled, Alabama-LSU has been postponed with no replay date. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said the conference hopes to figure out a way to get the game played. Jones was listed at +160 last week. He checks in at +250 this week.

  • Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is also listed at +250 this week. Lawrence, who missed his second-consecutive game last Saturday due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, a Clemson win over Boston College, was listed at +180 last week, No. 3 on the board.

  • Lawrence and Jones are now listed aside Florida QB Adam Trask at +250 on the PointsBet board. Trask’s odds were slashed by a third this week from +750 after he threw for 356 yards and six touchdowns in last Saturday’s 63-35 win over Arkansas. He did that without stud TE Kyle Pitts, who missed the game with a concussion and nose surgery.

  • Fields, Lawrence, Trask and Jones have emerged as 2020’s four-clear Heisman frontrunners. The next-highest listed player on the PointsBet board is BYU’s Zach Wilson at +2700.

  • Beyond Wilson, every other player on the board garners 800-to-1 or higher odds.

  • I'll just repeat what I've been saying for weeks: Fields is the only bet on the board I'd make.

Championship odds

Team

This week

Last week

Alabama Crimson Tide

115

175

Ohio State Buckeyes

225

225

Clemson Tigers

300

300

Florida Gators

1250

1300

Notre Dame Irish

1700

2000

Texas A&M Aggies

5300

4000

Cincinnati Bearcats

5300

5300

BYU Cougars

7000

7000

Indiana Hoosiers

8000

8000

Miami Hurricanes

8000

10000

Wisconsin Badgers

9000

10000

Oklahoma Sooners

10000

7000

Georgia Bulldogs

10000

8000

Northwestern Wildcats

12000

N/A

USC Trojans

12000

10000

Oregon Ducks

15000

8000

Iowa State Cyclones

17000

15000

Oklahoma State Cowboys

17500

12500

Auburn Tigers

25000

25000

Washington State Cougars

25000

25000

Texas Longhorns

25000

10000

Missouri Tigers

25000

25000

SMU Mustangs

25000

20000

Washington Huskies

25000

25000

Iowa Hawkeyes

25000

25000

North Carolina Tar Heels

27000

25000

Utah Utes

30000

25000

Marshall Thundering Herd

30000

25000

Pittsburgh Panthers

30000

30000

Purdue Boilermakers

30000

15000

Kansas State Wildcats

30000

25000

Colorado Buffaloes

50000

75000

Maryland Terrapins

50000

50000

West Virginia Mountaineers

50000

50000

Memphis Tigers

50000

50000

UCLA Bruins

50000

50000

Arizona Wildcats

75000

20000

Virginia Tech Hokies

75000

25000

Stanford Cardinal

75000

25000

UCF Knights

75000

25000

Arizona State Sun Devils

75000

25000

NC State Wolfpack

75000

35000

TCU Horned Frogs

75000

50000

Virginia Cavaliers

75000

50000

Arkansas Razorbacks

75000

50000

Kentucky Wildcats

75000

50000

Florida Atlantic Owls

75000

50000

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

75000

50000

Army Knights

75000

50000

Michigan State Spartans

75000

50000

Nebraska Cornhuskers

75000

75000

Minnesota Golden Gophers

N/A

25000

LSU Tigers

N/A

25000

Tennessee Volunteers

N/A

25000

Michigan Wolverines

N/A

15000

South Carolina Gamecocks

N/A

75000

Oregon State Beavers

N/A

75000

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

N/A

100000

Appalachian State Mountaineers

N/A

100000

Charlotte 49ers

N/A

100000

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

N/A

100000

Boston College Eagles

N/A

100000

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

N/A

100000

Georgia Southern Eagles

N/A

100000

  • As the Heisman board depicts a clear four-horse race for the trophy, PointsBet’s title board paints the championship as a five-man race. Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson are the three clear front-runners, with Florida and Notre Dame within shouting distance.

  • Alabama saw its price inflate from +175 to +115 this week despite the postponement of the LSU game.

  • Ohio State remained at +225 after the cancellation of its game with Maryland, and Clemson remained at +300 after spending last week on bye.

  • The Texas A&M Aggies and Cincinnati Bearcats are lingering outside that top-five with matching price-tags of +5300. A&M’s huge impediment to making it into the field as a one-loss team is they’ll almost assuredly finish No. 2 in their division and miss the SEC title game. Cincy’s huge impediment is playing in the G5.

  • The only other teams priced more expensive than 100-to-1: the BYU Cougars, Indiana Hoosiers, Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers.

  • Miami is the sucker bet of those long-shots, as a one-loss team that is going to get boxed out of the ACC title game by Notre Dame and Clemson.

  • BYU, like Cincinnati, will need mass chaos to earn the first-ever non-P5 playoff invite.

  • Indiana and Wisconsin remain undefeated. We’re going to find out if Indiana is for real this weekend, when they travel to Ohio State for an early Saturday kickoff. The Badgers will also be challenged with a date at ranked Northwestern.

  • The Badgers have only played two games after having two others canceled by COVID complications. One more cancelation and they’ll be eliminated from Big 10 title game consideration. It’s unclear how cancelations/no-contests could effect this year’s playoff race. But it feels pretty safe to say that the Badgers will have to run the table to get in.

  • Below are my updated estimated spreads for potential playoff matchups on neutral sites, listed in order of spread discrepancy. This week, for fun, I tossed in BYU and Cincinnati so you can get a sense for those cinderella's potential matchups if all hell breaks loose around them the next few weeks.

Dog

Fav

ATL

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Florida Gators

Pk

Georgia Bulldogs

Florida Gators

-1.0

Texas A&M Aggies

Cincinnati Bearcats

-1.0

Ohio State Buckeyes

Alabama Crimson Tide

-1.0

Georgia Bulldogs

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

-1.0

Cincinnati Bearcats

BYU Cougars

-1.0

Texas A&M Aggies

BYU Cougars

-1.5

Clemson Tigers

Ohio State Buckeyes

-3.0

BYU Cougars

Florida Gators

-3.0

BYU Cougars

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

-3.5

Clemson Tigers

Alabama Crimson Tide

-3.5

Cincinnati Bearcats

Florida Gators

-4.0

Texas A&M Aggies

Georgia Bulldogs

-4.0

Cincinnati Bearcats

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

-4.0

Texas A&M Aggies

Florida Gators

-4.5

Texas A&M Aggies

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

-4.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Clemson Tigers

-5.5

Florida Gators

Clemson Tigers

-6.0

Georgia Bulldogs

Clemson Tigers

-6.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ohio State Buckeyes

-8.5

Florida Gators

Ohio State Buckeyes

-8.5

BYU Cougars

Clemson Tigers

-8.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Alabama Crimson Tide

-9.0

Georgia Bulldogs

Ohio State Buckeyes

-9.0

Florida Gators

Alabama Crimson Tide

-9.0

Cincinnati Bearcats

Clemson Tigers

-9.5

Georgia Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide

-9.5

Texas A&M Aggies

Clemson Tigers

-10.0

BYU Cougars

Ohio State Buckeyes

-11.5

BYU Cougars

Alabama Crimson Tide

-12.0

Cincinnati Bearcats

Ohio State Buckeyes

-12.1

Texas A&M Aggies

Ohio State Buckeyes

-13.0

Cincinnati Bearcats

Alabama Crimson Tide

-13.0

Texas A&M Aggies

Alabama Crimson Tide

-13.5

Week 12 games of note:

No. 9 Indiana at No. 3 Ohio State

Kentucky at No. 1 Alabama

No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma

Ole Miss at No. 5 Texas A&M

No. 10 Wisconsin at No. 19 Northwestern

Appalachian State at No. 15 Coastal Carolina

No. 7 Cincinnati at UCF

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