CFB futures market: Week 11

Thor Nystrom
·9 min read

Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.

Heisman odds

Player

Position

Team

This week

Last week

Justin Fields

QB

Ohio State Buckeyes

150

150

Mac Jones

QB

Alabama Crimson Tide

160

150

Trevor Lawrence

QB

Clemson Tigers

180

250

Kyle Trask

QB

Florida Gators

750

4000

Ian Book

QB

Notre Dame Irish

2500

20000

D’Eriq King

QB

Miami Hurricanes

2500

6500

Zach Wilson

QB

BYU Cougars

2500

3000

DeVonta Smith

WR

Alabama Crimson Tide

2500

4000

Najee Harris

RB

Alabama Crimson Tide

4000

5000

Spencer Rattler

QB

Oklahoma Sooners

10000

15000

Travis Etienne

RB

Clemson Tigers

10000

5000

Kellen Mond

QB

Texas A&M Aggies

10000

7000

Sam Ehlinger

QB

Texas Longhorns

10000

10000

Chuba Hubbard

RB

Oklahoma State Cowboys

N/A

8000

Sean Clifford

QB

Penn State Nittany Lions

N/A

5000

Zamir White

RB

Georgia Bulldogs

N/A

20000

  • Despite an extremely frenetic Saturday of college football, the top of the Heisman odds board didn’t change much this week.

  • Justin Fields remained at +150, but became the lone favorite at the top of the board when PointsBet dropped Mac Jones from +150 to +160 (Jones was idle this week). Fields accounted for 321 total yards and threw for five touchdowns and ran for another score in a 49-27 win over Rutgers. He’s completed 86.7% of his passes for 908 yards and a 11/0 TD/INT through three games while providing plenty of additional value on the ground.

  • Fields has been the Heisman front-runner since the day Trevor Lawrence’s COVID diagnosis was announced. I continue to think Mac Jones bets are misguided at this price point.

  • Trevor Lawrence’s now sits at +180 (from last week's +250) despite Lawrence missing his second-consecutive game, a 2OT loss to Notre Dame last Saturday. He is not a play at this price. Lawrence still has a shot at the award, but that might require a Fields injury at this point. Missing two games during a normal season would kill almost any Heisman campaign -- and Lawrence’s two missed games are coming during what is already a truncated season. I don’t know that he’ll take enough snaps to justify the award for what will be, at best, a one-loss team at the time voting takes place.

  • Trask’s odds went from 40-to-1 to 7.5-to-1, over a five-multiples inflation in price. Warranted recognition for trashing Georgia’s vaunted defense for 474 passing yards, a 4/1 TD/INT rate and 11.0 YPA on 30-of-43 passing. What made that performance all the more impressive was Trask’s most dynamic target, Kyle Pitts, had to exit early after taking a brutal hit from Georgia S Lewis Cine. Trask decimated Georgia's No. 1 ranked defense without him for three quarters.

  • Book’s odds saw an even steeper inflation following Notre Dame’s upset win over Clemson, going from a +20,000 darkhorse to +2,500, tied for the fifth-highest listed player. Book was sensational against the Tigers, going 22-of-39 for 310 yards and a TD. His slippery brand of mobility also allowed him to escape multiple sure-fire sacks and add 68 yards on the ground.

  • D’Eriq King, Zach Wilson and DeVonta Smith round out the list of eight players priced +2500 or lower.

  • Of them, Wilson is the most interesting. He leads the nation with 2,511 passing yards to go with a 21/2 TD/INT rate through eight games. BYU just thrashed Boise State, one of the few marquee games on the Cougars' schedule. Wilson has a better chance of getting invited to the Heisman ceremony than these odds suggest.

  • I’ll repeat what I’ve been saying for the last few weeks: Fields is probably the only bet worth making on the board right now (unless you want to toss a dart on Wilson). Sure, you’d have preferred to have Fields at +700 a few weeks ago. But the way things are trending, Fields is going to hit pick ‘em status in the coming weeks.

Championship odds

Team

This week

Last week

Alabama Crimson Tide

175

250

Ohio State Buckeyes

225

200

Clemson Tigers

300

200

Florida Gators

1300

2500

Notre Dame Irish

2000

3000

Texas A&M Aggies

4000

900

Cincinnati Bearcats

5300

10000

Oklahoma Sooners

7000

10000

BYU Cougars

7000

10000

Georgia Bulldogs

8000

1600

Indiana Hoosiers

8000

20000

Oregon Ducks

8000

10000

Wisconsin Badgers

10000

8000

USC Trojans

10000

10000

Texas Longhorns

10000

10000

Miami Hurricanes

10000

15000

Oklahoma State Cowboys

12500

20000

Iowa State Cyclones

15000

15000

Michigan Wolverines

15000

20000

Purdue Boilermakers

15000

20000

SMU Mustangs

20000

20000

Arizona Wildcats

20000

20000

Washington Huskies

25000

15000

LSU Tigers

25000

50000

Iowa Hawkeyes

25000

30000

Minnesota Golden Gophers

25000

30000

Missouri Tigers

25000

100000

Auburn Tigers

25000

15000

Utah Utes

25000

20000

North Carolina Tar Heels

25000

25000

Kansas State Wildcats

25000

20000

Virginia Tech Hokies

25000

20000

Stanford Cardinal

25000

20000

UCF Knights

25000

20000

Arizona State Sun Devils

25000

25000

Tennessee Volunteers

25000

25000

Marshall Thundering Herd

25000

75000

Washington State Cougars

25000

30000

Pittsburgh Panthers

30000

30000

NC State Wolfpack

35000

40000

TCU Horned Frogs

50000

75000

UCLA Bruins

50000

20000

Virginia Cavaliers

50000

30000

Memphis Tigers

50000

50000

Arkansas Razorbacks

50000

50000

West Virginia Mountaineers

50000

50000

Kentucky Wildcats

50000

50000

Maryland Terrapins

50000

75000

Florida Atlantic Owls

50000

75000

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

50000

100000

Army Knights

50000

100000

Michigan State Spartans

50000

N/A

Nebraska Cornhuskers

75000

25000

South Carolina Gamecocks

75000

25000

Colorado Buffaloes

75000

100000

Oregon State Beavers

75000

100000

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

100000

100000

Appalachian State Mountaineers

100000

100000

Charlotte 49ers

100000

100000

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

100000

50000

Boston College Eagles

100000

N/A

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

100000

100000

Georgia Southern Eagles

100000

N/A

Penn State Nittany Lions

N/A

15000

Northwestern Wildcats

N/A

30000

Syracuse Orange

N/A

100000

Georgia State Panthers

N/A

100000

  • Alabama is your new national title frontrunner after being priced No. 3 on PointsBet’s board last week. The Crimson Tide dropped from +250 to +175 despite spending last week on bye.

  • Ohio State, meanwhile, can be had for a better price this week than last week despite taking care of business against Rutgers. Ohio State was priced at +200 last week, tied with Clemson atop the board. The Buckeyes are now +225, looking up at the Tide.

  • Clemson goes from a 2-to-1 frontrunner to win the title to 3-to-1, listed No. 3, following their upset loss to Notre Dame. Clemson is now the best value bet on the title board. What the Notre Dame loss did was eliminate any margin for error going forward -- one more loss and Clemson’s playoff hopes are done. Luckily for Clemson, they only have four games left -- and that includes a hypothetical/probable ACC title game appearance. The Tigers close the regular season with three highly-winnable games against FSU, Pitt and Virginia Tech. Get through those, and they’d have a good shot at a rematch with Notre Dame in the conference title. Clemson still controls its destiny: Miami is the only other one-loss ACC team, and the Hurricanes' sole loss came to Clemson. If Clemson wins out, I think the Tigers make the playoff. And at that point they have Trevor Lawrence quarterbacking arguably the most talented roster in college football. I would anticipate, assuming a healthy Lawrence and the return of multiple injured starters on defense, that Clemson would enter the four-team event as favorites.

  • Florida made one of this week’s biggest leaps, from +2500 to +1300, after knocking off Georgia. Florida’s remaining regular season schedule is cake: Arkansas, Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU. The Gators are almost assured of playing in the SEC title game. At 4-1, Florida has a half-game lead over 4-2 Georgia. But Florida secured the tiebreaker with Saturday’s win, in essence giving them a 1.5 game lead. Look at Florida’s opponents above: You see any possibility for two losses in there? No chance.

  • On the other side of things, Georgia free-fell down the board from +1600 to a +8000 longshot after getting beaten up by Florida.

  • Texas A&M annihilated South Carolina 48-3 but dropped from 9-to-1 to 40-to-1 odds to win the title. What gives? A&M’s road to a potential playoff berth as a one-loss team is narrowing by the week. The Aggies are one game behind Alabama in the race to play Florida in the SEC title game. But A&M lost to Bama earlier this year, meaning they’re actually two games back. Barring an epic Alabama meltdown down the stretch, A&M is going to be boxed out from playing in the SEC title game. But with only Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn left to play, A&M has a decent shot at finishing 9-1. Even if they get there, they’d need legitimate chaos around them to earn a playoff berth as the second-place finisher in their division.

  • Rocky Balboa watch: Everyone’s favorite little guys, the Cincinnati Bearcats and BYU Cougars, continue to creep up the board. Cincy is now listed No. 7 on the PointsBet board at +5300 (from +10,000 last week), while BYU is tied for No. 8 at +7000 (similarly up from +10,000 last week). Both undefeated programs will have to remain so and hope for mass chaos to ensue. But it’s possible -- I think both teams have a clearer path to the playoff right now than, for instance, Texas A&M. No Group of 5 team has ever made the playoff. If ever there was a season for the committee to get weird, it's this one.

Week 11 games of note:

East Carolina at No. 7 Cincinnati (Friday)

No. 9 Miami at Virginia Tech

No. 2 Notre Dame at Boston College

No. 3 Ohio State at Maryland

No. 8 Texas A&M at Tennessee

No. 1 Alabama at LSU

No. 13 Wisconsin at Michigan

Arkansas at No. 6 Florida

No. 11 Oregon at Washington State

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