CFB futures market: Week 10

Thor Nystrom
·8 min read



Every Monday, I’ll provide updated Heisman and national title odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.

Heisman odds

Player

Position

Team

This week

Last week

Justin Fields

QB

Ohio State Buckeyes

+150

+200

Mac Jones

QB

Alabama Crimson Tide

+150

+600

Trevor Lawrence

QB

Clemson Tigers

+250

-110

Zach Wilson

QB

BYU Cougars

+3000

N/A

Kyle Trask

QB

Florida Gators

+4000

+2000

DeVonta Smith

WR

Alabama Crimson Tide

+4000

+2500

Sean Clifford

QB

Penn State Nittany Lions

+5000

+5000

Najee Harris

RB

Alabama Crimson Tide

+5000

+2500

Travis Etienne

RB

Clemson Tigers

+5000

N/A

D’Eriq King

QB

Miami Hurricanes

+6500

+2500

Kellen Mond

QB

Texas A&M Aggies

+7000

+10000

Chuba Hubbard

RB

Oklahoma State Cowboys

+8000

N/A

Sam Ehlinger

QB

Texas Longhorns

+10000

+10000

Spencer Rattler

QB

Oklahoma Sooners

+15000

+10000

Ian Book

QB

Notre Dame Irish

+20000

+8000

Zamir White

RB

Georgia Bulldogs

+20000

+10000

Master Teague III

RB

Ohio State Buckeyes

N/A

+10000

Tanner Morgan

QB

Minnesota Gophers

N/A

+15000

JD Spielman

WR

TCU Horned Frogs

N/A

+15000

Sam Howell

QB

North Carolina Tarheels

N/A

+20000

JT Daniels

QB

Georgia Bulldogs

N/A

+20000

Tylan Wallace

WR

Oklahoma State Cowboys

N/A

+20000

Kadarius Toney

OW

Florida Gators

N/A

+20000

Myles Brennan

QB

LSU Tigers

N/A

+20000

JT Daniels

QB

Georgia Bulldogs

N/A

+20000

  • Trevor Lawrence’s positive COVID-19 diagnosis -- and the minimum two games it’s going to cost him -- may well end up killing his odds to win the Heisman. The past three weeks, Lawrence’s odds have gone from -160 to -110 all the way to +250 this week. Lawrence missed Clemson’s 34-28 win over Boston College on Saturday. Clemson has already announced he’ll be out for this Saturday’s marquee showdown against Notre Dame.

  • Two weeks ago, when Justin Fields was +700 for the Heisman, we told you in this space that he was by far the biggest bargain on the board. In the weeks since, Fields has dropped from +700 to +200 to +150. After throwing for 318 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-25 win over Penn State, Fields is now a co-favorite for the award.

  • Despite the precipitous drop of his price the past few weeks, Fields is still the best bet on the Heisman board. Through two games, he’s been flawless: 48-for-55 (87.3%) for 594 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s also rushed for 50 yards and a seventh score.

  • As an aside, Fields probably isn’t being appreciated enough for the supernova career he’s having. As a passer, he’s compiled a 51/3 TD/INT on 69.9% completions and 9.4 YPA. He’s also rushed for 800 yards and 15 TD.

  • BYU’s Zach Wilson has at long last made his debut on the PointsBet Heisman board! Wilson checks in at +3000, No. 4 on the board. As much as I like him as a player, I’m not sure there’s much value to be had at 30-to-1. Wilson would probably need a Fields injury to have any shot to win.

  • In Alabama’s first full game without Jaylen Waddle, Mac Jones relentlessly targeted DeVonta Smith. Smith posted a 11-203-4 receiving line in last Saturday’s 41-0 beatdown of Mississippi State. In six games, Smith has already ran up a 56-759-8 line.

  • Despite that ludicrous game, Smith’s odds dropped from +2500 to +4000. Smith faces long odds to win the award. Only two receivers have ever taken home college football’s most illustrious award. But with Waddle out for the year, Smith is clearly the best bet among non-QBs to crash the Heisman ceremony this winter. The Crimson Tide are going to keep force-feeding him targets.

  • Mac Jones, at +150, is co-favorite for the Heisman with Fields. I don’t like Jones at that price (I wouldn’t even bet Jones at +500, if I’m being honest). The issue for Jones, even if Bama finishes undefeated and he puts up video game numbers, is that Smith will syphon votes from him. Jones isn't talented enough to differentiate himself from the playmakers he's facilitating.

Championship odds

Team

This week

Last week

Clemson Tigers

+200

+140

Ohio State Buckeyes

+200

+200

Alabama Crimson Tide

+250

+350

Texas A&M Aggies

+900

+5000

Georgia Bulldogs

+1600

+1300

Florida Gators

+2500

+2300

Notre Dame Irish

+3000

+4000

Wisconsin Badgers

+8000

+5000

Oregon Ducks

+10000

N/A

USC Trojans

+10000

N/A

Oklahoma Sooners

+10000

+10000

BYU Cougars

+10000

+10000

Texas Longhorns

+10000

+15000

Cincinnati Bearcats

+10000

+20000

Washington Huskies

+15000

N/A

Penn State Nittany Lions

+15000

+8000

Auburn Tigers

+15000

+20000

Miami Hurricanes

+15000

+10000

Iowa State Cyclones

+15000

+15000

Oklahoma State Cowboys

+20000

+8000

Kansas State Wildcats

+20000

+10000

Indiana Hoosiers

+20000

+10000

Michigan Wolverines

+20000

+3500

SMU Mustangs

+20000

+20000

Virginia Tech Hokies

+20000

+20000

Purdue Boilermakers

+20000

+20000

Utah Utes

+20000

N/A

Arizona Wildcats

+20000

N/A

Stanford Cardinal

+20000

N/A

UCLA Bruins

+20000

N/A

UCF Knights

+20000

25000

Arizona State Sun Devils

+25000

N/A

Nebraska Cornhuskers

+25000

+25000

South Carolina Gamecocks

+25000

+25000

Tennessee Volunteers

+25000

+50000

North Carolina Tarheels

+25000

+15000

Minnesota Golden Gophers

+30000

+15000

Iowa Hawkeyes

+30000

+15000

Northwestern Wildcats

+30000

N/A

Washington State Cougars

+30000

N/A

Pittsburgh Panthers

+30000

+25000

Virginia Cavaliers

+30000

+25000

NC State Wolfpack

+40000

+15000

Memphis Tigers

+50000

+15000

Arkansas Razorbacks

+50000

+100000

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

+50000

+100000

LSU Tigers

+50000

+25000

West Virginia Mountaineers

+50000

+25000

Kentucky Wildcats

+50000

+50000

TCU Horned Frogs

+75000

+50000

Marshall Thundering Herd

+75000

+35000

Maryland Terrapins

+75000

+50000

Florida Atlantic Owls

+75000

+100000

Colorado Buffaloes

+100000

N/A

Oregon State Beavers

+100000

N/A

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

+100000

+50000

Missouri Tigers

+100000

+25000

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

+100000

+50000

Appalachian State Mountaineers

+100000

+100000

Army Knights

+100000

+100000

Charlotte 49ers

+100000

+100000

Georgia State Panthers

+100000

+100000

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

+100000

+100000

Syracuse Orange

+100000

+100000

  • Clemson’s odds jumped from +140 to +200. The Tigers beat Boston College 34-28 but needed to go on a 21-0 rally after halftime -- benefitting from a fumble, interception and a late safety -- to stay undefeated. Clemson finished the game with a 29% win expectancy.

  • After that game, HC Dabo Swinney announced that Trevor Lawrence will miss this weekend’s game against Notre Dame due to the ACC's COVID-19 protocols. That means freshman QB D.J. Uiagalelei will make his second career start in a pivotal game.

  • Clemson-Notre Dame isn't the only matchup between top-eight teams with enormous national implications this weekend. No. 8 Florida travels to No. 5 Georgia in a natty-eliminator match. The winner of Georgia (+1600) and Florida (+2500) figures to be priced in the +800 or +900 neighborhood next week. The loser will be eliminated from playoff consideration.

  • Ohio State remained at +200 following its 13-point win over Penn State. But due to Clemson’s fall, the Buckeyes are officially co-favorites for the title.

  • The Texas A&M Aggies fell all the way from +5000 to +900 after beating Arkansas. After the Aggies upset Florida, we mentioned that A&M was being slept on in the futures market due to their upcoming schedule. Still sporting only one loss, the remainder of A&M’s schedule remains quite forgiving: South Carolina, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU and Auburn.

  • I was surprised that the Notre Dame’s odds didn’t fall further. The Irish went from +4000 last week to +3000 last week after beating Georgia Tech. More importantly, they get Clemson this week without Trevor Lawrence. If the Irish win that game, their odds will get cut by more than two-thirds next week (I'd estimate the +600 neighborhood). If you think the Irish can beat Clemson, getting ND at 30-to-1 right now to win the title is good business.

  • The Cincinnati Bearcats saw their odds slashed in half, from +20000 to +10000, after last Saturday’s route of Memphis. At +10000, Cincy now has the same odds as fellow undefeated longshot BYU. Each will need abject chaos around them to have any shot at being picked into the four-team playoff.

  • Here are my estimated current spreads for potential playoff matchups on neutral sites, listed in order of spread discrepancy:

Dog

Fav

ATL

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Florida Gators

Pk

Florida Gators

Georgia Bulldogs

-2.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Georgia Bulldogs

-2.5

Alabama Crimson Tide

Ohio State Buckeyes

-3

Georgia Bulldogs

Clemson Tigers

-3

Clemson Tigers

Alabama Crimson Tide

-4

Florida Gators

Clemson Tigers

-5.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Clemson Tigers

-5.5

Clemson Tigers

Ohio State Buckeyes

-6.5

Georgia Bulldogs

Alabama Crimson Tide

-7

Texas A&M Aggies

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

-7.5

Texas A&M Aggies

Florida Gators

-7.5

Florida Gators

Alabama Crimson Tide

-9

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Alabama Crimson Tide

-9

Georgia Bulldogs

Ohio State Buckeyes

-9.5

Texas A&M Aggies

Georgia Bulldogs

-10

Florida Gators

Ohio State Buckeyes

-12

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ohio State Buckeyes

-12

Texas A&M Aggies

Clemson Tigers

-13

Texas A&M Aggies

Alabama Crimson Tide

-16.5

Texas A&M Aggies

Ohio State Buckeyes

-19.5

Week 10 games of note:

No. 9 BYU at No. 21 Boise State (Friday)

No. 23 Michigan at No. 13 Indiana

No. 8 Florida at No. 5 Georgia

No. 1 Clemson at No. 4 Notre Dame

Stanford at No. 12 Oregon

Houston at No. 6 Cincinnati

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