CFB futures

Every Monday, I’ll provide updated Heisman, national title and first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.

Heisman odds

• Trevor Lawrence, whose odds dropped from -110 to -160 following Clemson’s annihilation of Georgia Tech, is beginning to pull away from the field.

• With the Big 10 opening this weekend, however, Lawrence may finally be challenged. Justin Fields’ odds have dropped all the way to +700 while he’s waited for the Buckeyes season to open. If you’re looking for a bargain, Fields is it. His odds will assuredly be slashed next week after the Buckeyes hammer Nebraska in their opener.

• Fields was the highest vote-getter from the 2019 Heisman race to return to college football in 2020. Fields finished behind LSU QB Joe Burrow and Ohio State EDGE Chase Young.

• Mac Jones’ odds were cut from +700 to +450 after Alabama raced away from Georgia on Saturday. That game also catapulted WR Jaylen Waddle onto the top-five of the board, with Waddle's odds dropping from +4000 to +1600.

• Waddle posted a 6-161-1 receiving line against Georgia. His running mate DeVonta Smith held steady at +5000 despite out-producing Waddle with a 11-167-2 line. Both players are going to keep producing, but they face long odds to win the Heisman. Each would presumably split votes not only with the other, but Mac Jones as well.

• History is also heavily against Waddle and Smith. In the history of the Heisman, only two receivers have ever won the award: Desmond Howard and Tim Brown (Michigan DB Charles Woodson also moonlighted as a receiver and returned kicks when he won in 1997). Both Howard and Brown benefited from circumstance and extra work.

• When he won the award in 1991, 19 of Howard’s 62 receptions improbably went for touchdowns. In addition, Howard scored two rushing TDs, a kick return TD, and a punt return TD, for 23 total scores. Brown’s 1987 Heisman win was odd in that he had only 39 receptions with three receiving TD. But if you tossed in his 34 rushing attempts, Brown had a 73-990-4 line from scrimmage with three additional punt return TDs and a 19.8 YPR kick return average.

• Smith currently has a 38-483-4 receiving line, while Waddle sits at 25-557-4. Smith will almost assuredly finish with more receptions. But we can’t disagree with Waddle having shorter odds. Waddle’s explosion will lead to healthier per-play numbers, and he additionally returns more kicks, which is a key factor to a receiver being considered, as we've learned. Waddle bettors will need to hope he starts returning kicks and punts for scores. No matter the receiving numbers he puts up, he isn’t going to win the award with fewer than (at minimum) two return scores. Those are the plays he can differentiate himself from Smith and isolate himself from Jones.

• For kicks, PointsBet added JT Daniels back onto the board at +20000 despite the fact that he still hasn’t thrown a pass this season.

• On the other end of things, the PointsBet board this week waved goodbye to Master Teague III, Sam Ehlinger, Kadarius Toney, CJ Verdell, Jack Coan, Taulia Tagovailoa, Charlie Brewer, Micale Cunningham, Bo Nix, Matt Corral and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

• There is one player who isn’t listed who has legitimate darkhorse Heisman potential -- and at this point, we may have to upgrade his designation from “darkhorse” to “sleeper”: BYU QB Zach Wilson. Wilson’s exclusion is puzzling enough that I added him to the table above where he ought to be sitting -- in the top-five of the board -- so you don’t forget about him.

Championship odds

• Frontrunner Clemson’s odds were shaved from +200 to +150 after Saturday’s blowout win over Georgia Tech.

• Despite beating Georgia by more than two touchdowns over the weekend, the Alabama Crimson Tide remained at +300. That was a bit of a surprise. If nothing else, it's a reaffirmation of the public’s belief that Clemson is the clear current frontrunner for the title right now.

• Ohio State also remained at +300. Think about Ohio State and Alabama’s +300 pricetags this way: For the same price, you could hold tickets to both Ohio State and Alabama… or a single ticket on Clemson? Which would you prefer? To me, the former is clearly a better EV proposition.

• The Georgia Bulldogs fell to +1600 from +1000 after losing by three-possessions to Alabama. Steer clear. Georgia’s road to the playoff is far more precarious than it was a week ago, and their lack of elite quarterback will keep killing them against elite teams.

• The Notre Dame Irish beat Louisville and remain undefeated, but fell to +5000 from +3000 after an ugly offensive display in a close win over Louisville.

Odds to go 1st overall in the 2021 NFL Draft

• Last week, we talked about how Trevor Lawrence was a bargain at -300 and probably wouldn’t be priced that low again. After Lawrence and his Clemson Tigers laid waste to Georgia Tech, Lawrence’s odds dropped to -550.

• I also mentioned that Penei Sewell was the most realistic option to upset Lawrence for 1.1 honors in April. Sewell’s odds dropped from +425 to +700, but he moved from No. 3 to No. 2 on the board.

• Justin Fields dropped from +300 to +750 despite the fact that Ohio State hasn’t yet opened its season. Outside of Sewell, Fields is one of the two other realistic challengers I could see to Lawrence for 1.1.

• The other is BYU QB Zach Wilson, who is surging up draft boards but still doesn’t appear on the PointsBet board. There is also no “field” option. PointsBet also continues to ignore Wilson in the Heisman race.

• PointsBet removed a bunch of players from its board this week. Among those to go in the house-cleaning: D'Eriq King, Jamie Newman, Patrick Surtain II, Shaun Wade, Kellen Mond and Chuba Hubbard.

Games of note this weekend:

Syracuse at No. 1 Clemson

Nebraska at No. 5 Ohio State

No. 23 NC State at No. 14 UNC

No. 2 Alabama at Tennessee

No. 3 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

No. 17 Iowa State at No. 6 Oklahoma State

No. 18 Michigan at No. 21 Minnesota

No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 16 SMU

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