CFB futures

Thor Nystrom
·10 min read



Every Monday, I’ll provide updated Heisman, national title and first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft odds from PointsBet along with thoughts on potential angles.

Heisman odds

Player

Position

Team

This week

Last week

Trevor Lawrence

QB

Clemson Tigers

-160

-110

Mac Jones

QB

Alabama Crimson Tide

450

700

Justin Fields

QB

Ohio State Buckeyes

700

600

Jaylen Waddle

WR

Alabama Crimson Tide

1600

4000

Zach Wilson

QB

BYU Cougars

N/A

N/A

Shane Buechele

QB

SMU Mustangs

2500

2500

Najee Harris

RB

Alabama Crimson Tide

2500

2500

Kyle Trask

QB

Florida Gators

3000

2000

Travis Etienne

RB

Clemson Tigers

3000

2500

DeVonta Smith

WR

Alabama Crimson Tide

5000

5000

Stetson Bennett

QB

Georgia Bulldogs

5000

4000

Trey Sermon

RB

Ohio State Buckeyes

5000

N/A

Sean Clifford

QB

Penn State Nittany Lions

6600

8000

D’Eriq King

QB

Miami Hurricanes

8000

2500

Chuba Hubbard

RB

Oklahoma State Cowboys

8000

5000

Brock Purdy

QB

Iowa State Cyclones

8000

N/A

Spencer Rattler

QB

Oklahoma Sooners

10000

5000

Seth Williams

WR

Auburn Tigers

10000

N/A

Tanner Morgan

QB

Minnesota Gophers

10000

10000

Kellen Mond

QB

Texas A&M Aggies

15000

4000

Ian Book

QB

Notre Dame Irish

15000

6000

Sam Howell

QB

North Carolina Tarheels

15000

8000

Adrian Martinez

QB

Nebraska Cornhuskers

15000

15000

Feleipe Franks

QB

Arkansas Razorbacks

15000

15000

Zamir White

RB

Georgia Bulldogs

20000

5000

JD Spielman

WR

TCU Horned Frogs

20000

15000

JT Daniels

QB

Georgia Bulldogs

20000

N/A

Tylan Wallace

WR

Oklahoma State Cowboys

20000

N/A

Master Teague III

RB

Ohio State Buckeyes

N/A

5000

Sam Ehlinger

QB

Texas Longhorns

N/A

10000

Kadarius Toney

OW

Florida Gators

N/A

10000

CJ Verdell

RB

Oregon Ducks

N/A

10000

Jack Coan

QB

Wisconsin Badgers

N/A

10000

Taulia Tagovailoa

QB

Maryland Terrapins

N/A

15000

Charlie Brewer

QB

Baylor Bears

N/A

15000

Micale Cunningham

QB

Louisville Cardinals

N/A

20000

Bo Nix

QB

Auburn Tigers

N/A

20000

Matt Corral

QB

Ole Miss Rebels

N/A

20000

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR

USC Trojans

N/A

20000

  • Trevor Lawrence, whose odds dropped from -110 to -160 following Clemson’s annihilation of Georgia Tech, is beginning to pull away from the field.

  • With the Big 10 opening this weekend, however, Lawrence may finally be challenged. Justin Fields’ odds have dropped all the way to +700 while he’s waited for the Buckeyes season to open. If you’re looking for a bargain, Fields is it. His odds will assuredly be slashed next week after the Buckeyes hammer Nebraska in their opener.

  • Fields was the highest vote-getter from the 2019 Heisman race to return to college football in 2020. Fields finished behind LSU QB Joe Burrow and Ohio State EDGE Chase Young.

  • Mac Jones’ odds were cut from +700 to +450 after Alabama raced away from Georgia on Saturday. That game also catapulted WR Jaylen Waddle onto the top-five of the board, with Waddle's odds dropping from +4000 to +1600.

  • Waddle posted a 6-161-1 receiving line against Georgia. His running mate DeVonta Smith held steady at +5000 despite out-producing Waddle with a 11-167-2 line. Both players are going to keep producing, but they face long odds to win the Heisman. Each would presumably split votes not only with the other, but Mac Jones as well.

  • History is also heavily against Waddle and Smith. In the history of the Heisman, only two receivers have ever won the award: Desmond Howard and Tim Brown (Michigan DB Charles Woodson also moonlighted as a receiver and returned kicks when he won in 1997). Both Howard and Brown benefited from circumstance and extra work.

  • When he won the award in 1991, 19 of Howard’s 62 receptions improbably went for touchdowns. In addition, Howard scored two rushing TDs, a kick return TD, and a punt return TD, for 23 total scores. Brown’s 1987 Heisman win was odd in that he had only 39 receptions with three receiving TD. But if you tossed in his 34 rushing attempts, Brown had a 73-990-4 line from scrimmage with three additional punt return TDs and a 19.8 YPR kick return average.

  • Smith currently has a 38-483-4 receiving line, while Waddle sits at 25-557-4. Smith will almost assuredly finish with more receptions. But we can’t disagree with Waddle having shorter odds. Waddle’s explosion will lead to healthier per-play numbers, and he additionally returns more kicks, which is a key factor to a receiver being considered, as we've learned. Waddle bettors will need to hope he starts returning kicks and punts for scores. No matter the receiving numbers he puts up, he isn’t going to win the award with fewer than (at minimum) two return scores. Those are the plays he can differentiate himself from Smith and isolate himself from Jones.

  • For kicks, PointsBet added JT Daniels back onto the board at +20000 despite the fact that he still hasn’t thrown a pass this season.

  • There is one player who isn’t listed who has legitimate darkhorse Heisman potential -- and at this point, we may have to upgrade his designation from “darkhorse” to “sleeper”: BYU QB Zach Wilson. Wilson’s exclusion is puzzling enough that I added him to the table above where he ought to be sitting -- in the top-five of the board -- so you don’t forget about him.

Championship odds

Team

This week

Last week

Clemson Tigers

150

200

Ohio State Buckeyes

300

300

Alabama Crimson Tide

300

300

Georgia Bulldogs

1600

1000

Florida Gators

2500

2500

Penn State Nittany Lions

3000

3000

Notre Dame Irish

5000

3000

Texas A&M Aggies

5000

5000

Wisconsin Badgers

5000

5000

Michigan Wolverines

6000

6000

Iowa State Cyclones

10000

8000

Oklahoma Sooners

10000

10000

Minnesota Golden Gophers

10000

10000

Oregon Ducks

10000

N/A

USC Trojans

10000

N/A

Kansas State Wildcats

15000

10000

Oklahoma State Cowboys

15000

15000

Iowa Hawkeyes

15000

15000

Washington Huskies

15000

N/A

Utah Utes

15000

N/A

Auburn Tigers

20000

10000

Cincinnati Bearcats

20000

20000

Texas Longhorns

20000

20000

BYU Cougars

20000

10000

Miami Florida

20000

10000

North Carolina Tarheels

20000

10000

Nebraska Cornhuskers

20000

15000

Arizona Wildcats

20000

N/A

Arizona State Sun Devils

20000

N/A

Stanford Cardinal

20000

N/A

UCLA Bruins

20000

N/A

Virginia Tech Hokies

20000

20000

Tennessee Volunteers

25000

N/A

Memphis Tigers

25000

25000

UCF Knights

25000

25000

Indiana Hoosiers

25000

20000

Colorado Buffaloes

25000

N/A

NC State Wolfpack

25000

N/A

SMU Mustangs

25000

20000

South Carolina Gamecocks

25000

25000

Baylor Bears

30000

25000

LSU Tigers

30000

N/A

Washington State Cougars

30000

N/A

Kentucky Wildcats

35000

N/A

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

35000

50000

Houston Cougars

40000

30000

Pittsburgh Panthers

40000

20000

Purdue Boilermakers

40000

40000

West Virginia Mountaineers

40000

25000

TCU Horned Frogs

50000

N/A

Arkansas Razorbacks

50000

N/A

Florida International

50000

100000

Marshall Thundering Herd

50000

100000

Maryland Terrapins

50000

50000

Florida Atlantic Owls

75000

N/A

Mississippi Rebels

100000

N/A

Missouri Tigers

100000

25000

Mississippi State Bulldogs

100000

N/A

Appalachian State Mountaineers

100000

N/A

Arkansas State

100000

N/A

Army Knights

100000

N/A

Boston College Eagles

100000

N/A

Charlotte 49ers

100000

N/A

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

100000

100000

East Carolina Pirates

100000

N/A

Georgia Southern Eagles

100000

N/A

Georgia State Panthers

100000

N/A

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

100000

N/A

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

100000

N/A

North Texas Mean Green

100000

N/A

Oregon State Beavers

100000

N/A

Rice Owls

100000

N/A

South Alabama Jaguars

100000

N/A

Southern Mississippi Eagles

100000

N/A

Virginia Cavaliers

100000

25000

Troy Trojans

100000

100000

Louisville Cardinals

100000

N/A

Navy Midshipmen

100000

N/A

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

100000

N/A

Syracuse Orange

100000

N/A

Texas Tech Red Raiders

100000

N/A

Texas State Bobcats

100000

N/A

Tulane Green Wave

100000

N/A

UAB Blazers

100000

N/A

UL Monroe Warhawks

100000

N/A

Michigan State Spartans

N/A

20000

Florida State Seminoles

N/A

50000

  • Frontrunner Clemson’s odds were shaved from +200 to +150 after Saturday’s blowout win over Georgia Tech.

  • Despite beating Georgia by more than two touchdowns over the weekend, the Alabama Crimson Tide remained at +300. That was a bit of a surprise. If nothing else, it's a reaffirmation of the public’s belief that Clemson is the clear current frontrunner for the title right now.

  • Ohio State also remained at +300. Think about Ohio State and Alabama’s +300 pricetags this way: For the same price, you could hold tickets to both Ohio State and Alabama… or a single ticket on Clemson? Which would you prefer? To me, the former is clearly a better EV proposition.

  • The Georgia Bulldogs fell to +1600 from +1000 after losing by three-possessions to Alabama. Steer clear. Georgia’s road to the playoff is far more precarious than it was a week ago, and their lack of elite quarterback will keep killing them against elite teams.

  • The Notre Dame Irish beat Louisville and remain undefeated, but fell to +5000 from +3000 after an ugly offensive display in a close win over Louisville.

Odds to go 1st overall in the 2021 NFL Draft

Player

This week

Last week

Trevor Lawrence

-550

-300

Penei Sewell

700

425

Justin Fields

750

300

Trey Lance

1100

1000

Micah Parsons

5000

2500

Alex Leatherwood

5000

3500

Gregory Rousseau

5000

3500

Walker Little

5000

10000

Ja'Marr Chase

10000

4000

Travis Etienne

10000

4000

Jaylen Waddle

10000

4500

DeVonta Smith

10000

5000

D'Eriq King

N/A

1600

Jamie Newman

N/A

3000

Patrick Surtain II

N/A

5000

Shaun Wade

N/A

5500

Kellen Mond

N/A

6600

Chuba Hubbard

N/A

7000

Sam Cosmi

N/A

7000

KJ Costello

N/A

7500

Najee Harris

N/A

8000

Brock Purdy

N/A

8000

Kyle Trask

N/A

8500

Sam Ehlinger

N/A

9000

Rashod Bateman

N/A

10000

Amon-Ra St. Brown

N/A

10000

Tylan Wallace

N/A

10000

Rondale Moore

N/A

10000

Justyn Ross

N/A

10000

Jaylen Mayfield

N/A

15000

Kylin Hill

N/A

20000

  • Last week, we talked about how Trevor Lawrence was a bargain at -300 and probably wouldn’t be priced that low again. After Lawrence and his Clemson Tigers laid waste to Georgia Tech, Lawrence’s odds dropped to -550.

  • I also mentioned that Penei Sewell was the most realistic option to upset Lawrence for 1.1 honors in April. Sewell’s odds dropped from +425 to +700, but he moved from No. 3 to No. 2 on the board.

  • Justin Fields dropped from +300 to +750 despite the fact that Ohio State hasn’t yet opened its season. Outside of Sewell, Fields is one of the two other realistic challengers I could see to Lawrence for 1.1.

  • The other is BYU QB Zach Wilson, who is surging up draft boards but still doesn’t appear on the PointsBet board. There is also no “field” option. PointsBet also continues to ignore Wilson in the Heisman race.

Games of note this weekend:

Syracuse at No. 1 Clemson

Nebraska at No. 5 Ohio State

No. 23 NC State at No. 14 UNC

No. 2 Alabama at Tennessee

No. 3 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

No. 17 Iowa State at No. 6 Oklahoma State

No. 18 Michigan at No. 21 Minnesota

No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 16 SMU

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