CFB DFS Week 4: Value Plays to Target

·7 min read



The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!

Last week we honed in on efficient wide receivers to target on the DraftKings main slate through the use of various efficiency metrics based on fantasy points scored and player opportunity.

This week, I thought it would be fun to take a look at some of the DFS tools we offer here at NBC Sports EDGE, to find some value plays based on projected points, individual games and a look at projected points per $1000 (PTS/$1000). We'll do this with the help of the NBC Sports EDGE DFS Projections tool which you can checkout for yourself if you're interested in a deeper dive.

Logan Bonner, Utah State QB

Game: Utah State (+9) vs. Boise State - O/U 70
DraftKings Salary: $5600
DraftKings Main Slate QBs Week 4
DraftKings Main Slate QBs Week 4

Of the quarterbacks offered to us on this 12-game slate, Utah State's Logan Bonner stands out as both a price value and a game value.

His PTS/$1000 ranks third best at 6.07, while his 34.0 projected points ranks eighth. The kicker however is Bonner's salary of $5600, which is the second cheapest on the slate next to Vanderbilt quarterback Ken Seals ($5000). Bonner's projected points may feel a bit bullish for a quarterback whose best fantasy performance (35.0 points) came against the North Dakota Fighting Hawks, but Saturday's game against Boise could be one built for fantasy production.

Saturday's matchup projects to be a shootout between Utah State (+9) and Boise State, as it it currently sits with the highest projected O/U of 70 on PointsBet.

Utah State vs. Boise State Week 4
Utah State vs. Boise State Week 4

This is the highest projected total for the Aggies since Week 1 when their matchup against Washington State closed at 66.5, while their two games after capped out at 54.5 in Week 3 at Air Force.

From a matchup side of this game, it's understandable why it comes with the highest total on the slate. On offense, Utah State currently averages the sixth most yards per game (563.3), and is eighth in passing yards per game with 357. Boise State is averaging just 349 yards per game, but is 32nd in the nation with 281.7 passing yards per game.

Defensively, neither team has been impressive. The Aggies have allowed the 12th most yards per game at 472.7, while Boise State ranks 35th at 412.3 yards per game.

The 3-0 Aggies have been defying the odds all season since they upset Washington State as 17-point road underdogs in Week 1, and Air Force in Week 3 as nine point road underdogs.

On the season, Bonner has been efficient when called upon. He's completed 60-of-92 passes (65.2%) for 796 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Bonner ranks eighth among QBs on this weekends slate (min. 50 attempts) in points per completion (1.1) and points per pass attempt (0.7).

Tyler Badie, Missouri Tigers RB

Game: Boston College (+1.5) vs. Missouri - O/U 58
DraftKings Salary: $6900
CFB Running Backs Week 4 DFS Main Slate
CFB Running Backs Week 4 DFS Main Slate

It was a close call between these running backs for a number of reasons, but breaking them down by their opportunity share through the first three weeks of the season seemed like a great way to start.

Player

School

Touches

Opp%

Zamir White

Georgia

29

15.8

Breece Hall

Iowa State

69

37.1

Tyler Badie

Missouri

63

31.8

Isaiah Spiller

Texas A&M

48

25.1

SaRodorick Thompson

Texas Tech

4

0.02

NOTE: SaRodorick Thompson has a noticeably lower opportunity share than the rest of the backs here, but keep in mind that he was eased back from shoulder surgery in Week 3, seeing his first action of the season against Florida International. Thompson is expected to see more action in Week 4, but is likely to split a significant share with Tahj Brooks.

When it comes to these backs, let's take a quick look at each.

Zamir White has the lowest opportunity share of this group behind Thompson, and is playing in a game that Georgia is favored in by 35.5 points over Vanderbilt. While his projected score is solid, a scenario does exist where Georgia pulls its starters in a blow out, keeping White from hitting his projected points total. In a 56-7 win over UAB in Week 2, White was fourth on the team in running back snaps and finished with 3.4 fantasy points.

For Isaiah Spiller, his opportunity share is tremendous, but Arkansas' defense has been unexpectedly solid this season. The Razorbacks are allowing only 123.7 rushing yards per game on the season and are 18th in the nation in fewest yards allowed per game (265.7). Texas A&M is favorited by 5.5 points, but this is also a road matchup for the Aggies against a stout defense.

Iowa State's Breece Hall has been a workhorse for Baylor, but is also the second-most expensive running back on the slate, and Baylor is even more defensively stout than Arkansas. The Bears are giving up 124 rushing yards per game, and rank eight in the nation in fewest yards allowed per game at 234. Iowa State is on the road for this one, but enters the day as seven point favorites. The Cyclones have had a relatively easy start to their season, with their toughest matchup coming in a Week 2 loss to Iowa. Iowa State fell to Iowa 27-17, and hall had his worst fantasy performance of the season with 18.3 points.

The running back I feel particularly strong about this week is Missouri's Tyler Badie. Badie, is the third-most expensive running back on the slate, but is second in fantasy points per game (34.2) Of the five running backs shown above, Badie is first in fantasy points per touch (1.5) and leads all running backs in this group in total DraftKings scoring at 96.3.

In a PPR format like DraftKings, Badie also brings added value in the receiving game. His 15 receptions is tied for third-most in the nation, while his 142 receiving yards ranks sixth. Badie's three receiving touchdowns on the season leads all running backs.

Missouri (2-1) has gotten off to a strong start offensively, ranking 17th in offensive yards per game (513.7) while averaging 183.3 yards per game on the ground. Boston College has allowed the fifth fewest yards per game (256.3), but have wins over Colgate, Massachusetts and Temple. Neither UMass or Temple are particularly strong offenses, ranking at 96th and 117th in yards per game while also being in the bottom third in the nation in points scored.

Missouri vs. Boston College Week 4
Missouri vs. Boston College Week 4

In a game that is expected to be competitive throughout, Missouri should lean on Badie to keep the chains moving. His high opportunity share, efficiency and price point makes him an attractive player to roster in GPPs this weekend.

Danny Gray, SMU Mustangs WR

Game: TCU (-9.5) vs. SMU - O/U 65.5
DraftKings Salary: $7100
CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Week 4
CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Week 4

The matchup between TCU and SMU projects to be a high-scoring affair in Week 4 as the Mustangs (3-0) look to continue their undefeated season against a TCU team that is also 2-0. The 65.5 projected total in this one is currently the seventh highest projected game on the day, as SMU (341.7 passing yards/gm) will look to air it out against a TCU team that is only allowing 192.5 passing yards per game.

CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Week 4
CFB DFS DraftKings Main Slate Week 4

Leading the aerial attack for SMU is quarterback who has completed 81-of-112 passes for 1,023 yards and 16 passing touchdowns. Mordecai's 16 touchdown passes leads the nation thus far, while his 88.2 grade as a passer on Pro Football Focus ranks as the 17th best.

Moredecai's favorite target on the season has been JUCO senior wide receiver Danny Gray.

Gray leads all Mustangs receivers in targets (23), receptions (16) and yards (228) and is tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns. He also leads all SMU receivers with 148 snaps, and is 21st in the nation in with 144 yards after catch.

From a fantasy perspective, Gray is the fourth best value in the slate in PTS/$1000. His projected point total of 32.3 is the most of any receiver on the weekend.

Gray has been a solid fantasy producer through the first three weeks of the season. He is averaging 22.3 points per game on DraftKings and has 66.8 points on the season. Gray is averaging 2.9 points per target, thanks to his four touchdowns on the season, and is the sixth-highest priced receiver on the slate.

Given SMU's underdog status in this one, and its willingness to throw the ball 38.7 times per game, the Mustangs should be comfortable in a negative game script as they look to pull off the upset over TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.