CFB Championship Week Player Props Primer

·3 min read

Alex Padilla, Iowa | O/U 177.5 Passing Yards

Spencer Petras is confirmed by HC Kirk Ferentz to be starting. Alex Padilla in was replaced by Petras last week after going 6-14 for 76 yards and two sacks against Nebraska. I expect Petras to get a few series’ at the very least before he gets yanked. Padilla has only crossed the 177.5 yards barrier once, when he threw for 206.5 against Minnesota on 11/13.

Anytime you get a line like this on a QB who is confirmed to not be starting, you HAVE to pound it. All-in on the Under 177.5 Passing yards

Brock Bowers, Georgia | O/U 31.5 Receiving Yards

No idea what DK’s is thinking here, as Bowers has crushed the 31.5 receiving yards mark in all but one game this season. Against Alabama, you have to think UGA will have to throw to keep some distance against the Tide. This is an easy OVER play if I ever saw one. Get after it.

Alton McCaskill, Houston | 58.5 Rushing Yards

I realize Cincinnati’s defense is solid, but they’re ranked 48th nationally in rushing yardage allowed. Alton McCaskill has been positively electric in his true freshman season, going over the 58.5 rushing yards mark in 7 of his last nine games, and he had 54 yards last week on nine carries in a meaningless blowout against the pathetic UConn Huskies. He will be heavily used this week against Cincinnati in a pivotal championship game.

I am on McCaskill’s OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards

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Hassan Haskins, Michigan | O/U 76.5 Rushing Yards

With Iowa’s offense struggling mightily to sustain drives in any form, I think Michigan is going to straight dominate Iowa which means a lot of second half totes for Haskins as the Wolverines try to salt the game away. With Corum banged up, Haskins has firmly established himself as the team’s bell cow. He will receive 15-20 carries, which means I love his chances at going OVER 76.5 rushing yards.

Cameron Peoples, Appalachian State | O/U 66.5 Rushing Yards

Since Daetrich Harrington came back, the Appalachian State backfield has been a three-headed Hydra situation with Nate Noel and Peoples involved in a timeshare over the past few weeks. The last two weeks Peoples has accrued 25 yards on seven carries against Georgia Southern and 40 yards on 10 carries against Troy. Last time these teams played, Appalachian State got annihilated with Peoples missing the contest. I’m going with UNDER 66.5 rushing yards against a stout UL defense that allows under 5 yards per play, ranking 16th in the country in that metric.

Brian Robinson, Alabama | O/U 76.5 Rushing Yards

Pretty simple play here, as Robinson is already considered questionable to play against the Number One ranked Georgia defense. Last week it was a makeshift committee of Tre Sanders and converted WR Christian Leary handle reps after Robinson departed. With Robinson already limping into the contest against a devastating Georgia front, i’m backing the UNDER 76.5 rushing yards on Bama’s top back.

Gerry Bohanon, Baylor | O/U 209.5 Passing Yards

It’s no secret that Oklahoma State’s pass defense is one of the top-3 units in the country by any objective measure. Last time these two teams met up, Baylor scored just 14 points while Bohanon completed 18-of-28 passes for a 48% completion rate and 173 yards while absorbing 3 sacks. He comes into the game limping due to a hamstring injury and is considered questionable. It’s entirely reasonable that we see Blake Shapen take over at some point, which combined with the ferocious Oklahoma State pass rush that ranks in the top-5 nationally in sacks, i’m backing the UNDER 209.5 passing yards.