It's the final regular season week is upon us and we've got some very interesting Championship Week lines to analyze from Draft Kings.
Brock Purdy vs. Oklahoma - O/U 235.5 Passing
It almost feels like our friends at Draft Kings are begging us to take the Over here, as Purdy has crushed the 235.5 mark in six of his last eight games. When the two teams played on October 3, he only needed to complete 12-of-24 passes to hit 256 yards in a 37-30 victory. Purdy has been operating at a much higher level since then as well, completing at least 67% of his passes in four of his last five contests. For their part, Oklahoma is allowing 234 passing yards per game. However, that’s against the “average”, not against an Iowa State team that is cranking out 8.21 yards per attempt and producing 450 YPG of total offense.
I’m backing the Over 235.5 play here in a do-or-die Championship game setting where Purdy will have to play his best. I also intend to pair Purdy with Charlie Kolar and his very reasonable Over 40.5 receiving yards, as Kolar was banged up early in the year and is now at full health.
Keylon Stokes vs. Cincinnati - O/U 69.5 Receiving
I haven’t been particularly enamored with Keylon Stokes dating back to last season when his inconsistency caused him to lead the nation with 13 dropped passes last season. He has tightened up his game in that regard this year but he’s still not a particularly explosive presence, averaging only 3.7 YAC on the year. He has been passed over by Josh Johnson as the preferred wide receiver in the Tulsa offense and has become more of a chains mover. Against a Cincinnati defense that suffocates passing to the tune of 196 passing yards per game and a stifling five-to-thirteen TD/INT ratio. Tulsa has had an incredible run this season behind sixth year HC Scottie Montgomery, but they’re not playing the soft defenses of SMU, ECU and South Florida today. I expect the Bearcats to lay it on the Golden Hurricane and i’m backing the Under on Stokes.
Amari Rodgers vs. Notre Dame - O/U 82.5 Receiving
If you’re not excited about the ACC Championship rematch of Clemson and Notre Dame, you shouldn’t be reading this column. Amari’s game flow has followed a pretty predictable pattern - when Clemson needs him, he gets assaulted with targets and generally hits this Over mark. When they’re putting the screws to a team and take the foot off the gas, they keep their electric slot-machine in the garage. Last week against a Hendon Hooker-free Virginia Tech, Rodgers only had 32 receiving yards in a 45-10 evisceration of the Hokies.
However if you throw away that laugher, Rodgers has eclipsed this week’s number in four of his last five games. That includes catching eight of a season-high 13 targets for 134 yards in the first meeting between Notre Dame and Clemson. Targets = production, and he will not be left in the barn this week with Trevor Terrific back at the helm and Clemson looking to make a statement. “When the pass hits his hands, he’ll light up ND once again...That’s Amari.” Take the Over 82.5 receiving from Lawrence’s top receiving option in a revenge game.
Ian Book vs. Clemson - O/U 255.5 Passing
Much like Brock Purdy, this is another line where it just feels like DK is begging us to take the Under in a pivotal Championship game with both teams gearing up to leave everything on the field. While Book only hit this 255.5 mark once in his first four games, he has positively annihilated it in five of his last six games, including a 310-yard showing in Clemson and ND’s first meeting back on November 7. In fact, Book hasn only thrown for under 279 yards once in that span, a 199-yard showing in a 31-13 victory over Georgia Tech where ND rolled up 227 rushing yards and suffocated them for 37 minutes because GT could only manage 238 total yards against the Fighting Irish defense. I hope Clemson even gets up to a quick 14-0 lead so ND has to throw even more to play catch up. There are a lot of things that can happen where Book hits this Over 255.5 here, it’s worth a shot to back Book’s recent high level of play in a must-win Championship game.
Garrett Wilson vs. Northwestern - O/U 104.5 Receiving
With rumors of Chris Olave and Jaxson Smith-Njigba missing the Big Ten Championship now confirmed, Garrett Wilson’s already tantalizing 104.5 receiving mark is now a must play. He has hit 104 yards or more in four-of-his-five games this season, with the only game he didn’t eclipse that mark being last week in a look-ahead spot against Michigan State where OSU blew the doors off an overmatched Spartans team 52-17. In Ohio State’s most competitive game of the year against Indiana, Wilson caught seven passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. He is an absolute MUST play in a statement game for the Buckeyes where they will be out for blood against a good Northwestern team that HC Ryan Day will not take lightly. Grab the OVER 104.5 right now.
Last Week - 4-2
Season Record - 44-19 (70%)