Celtics offseason preview: Al Horford situation, extensions and more
The Boston Celtics bounced back immensely from a disappointing 2020-21 season and a rough start to this season. They turned things around as soon as we entered 2022 and had one of the best defenses in recent history led by new head coach Ime Udoka. As president of basketball operations, Brad Stevens made an aggressive push to acquire role players that help improve their title odds now. They should remain contenders from here on out now that they’re maximizing their window around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Although they fell short of winning the championship, that shouldn’t take away from the fact that the Celtics were strong enough to win it all. They are heading into the summer with nearly a full roster and all their core players under contract. Aside from making a few additions through free agency or trade, continuity will be the main thing pushing them forward.
Al Horford and the luxury tax
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One of Boston’s first decisions is deciding whether or not to guarantee Al Horford’s $26.5 million salary. He is partially guaranteed for $19.5 million, which is a substantial amount of dead money to have for waiving such a productive player. They could also stretch that amount to reduce his dead cap hit to $6.5 million over the next three seasons.
The main benefit of not guaranteeing him is to save money, though they’d most likely have to trade him to avoid the luxury tax. Given how valuable he was in their playoff run, and how light they are at center when Robert Williams III is out, it seems like a certainty that they will guarantee Horford.
Assuming Boston keeps its eight highest-paid players, all of whom were regular parts of their playoff rotation, they are likely to be a luxury taxpayer next season. They are already heading into the offseason with $8.3 million over the luxury tax with 14 players under contract. That is before factoring in them signing the 53rd overall selection and using the mid-level exception to add a role player. That could push their projected luxury tax payment to the $20-25 million range.
Assuming the Celtics become consistent taxpayers starting next season, they could enter the repeater tax as early as the 2025-26 season. By then, Tatum could be on a supermax contract assuming he made the criteria by then, while Brown could potentially be earning a supermax contract as well. Boston’s ownership will need to have a strong willingness to go deep into the luxury tax every year if they’re going to remain title contenders during Tatum and Brown’s window.
Mid-level and multiple trade exceptions
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Boston will most likely have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception (MLE) projected at $6.4 million this offseason. Even if they were to salary dump Aaron Nesmith and waive their four non-guaranteed players on minimum deals, they’d still need to move off some of their core players or trade them for players earning less to open up the non-taxpayer MLE projected at $10.3 million.
It makes more sense for them to stick to the taxpayer MLE, especially since using the non-taxpayer MLE would hard cap them, preventing them from maximizing their trade exceptions. They have many trade exceptions this offseason, including ones worth $17.1 million, $6.9 million, and $5.9 million. The $17.1 million trade exception will be worth monitoring, both to see if ownership is willing to go deep into the tax to utilize it and since they’ll have a limited time to use it before it expires.
The Celtics’ biggest need in free agency is a 3-and-D wing player who can give Tatum and Brown some relief. Bruce Brown and Gary Payton II could be natural targets for the Celtics with the taxpayer MLE given their prioritization of defensive-minded players, even if they don’t quite bring good three-point shooting.
Some players they could pursue with their trade exceptions include Will Barton, Dillon Brooks, and former Celtic Marcus Morris. The Celtics have all their future first-round picks to offer going forward, and they’ve shown a willingness to trade them when they traded one for Horford and another for White since Stevens took over.
Extensions
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The Celtics have several players eligible to sign extensions this offseason, most notably Grant Williams. The third-year forward shot 41 percent from three during the regular season and 43 percent during the playoffs on 4.7 attempts per game. He stepped up when Williams III missed time and did a great job matching up with Antetokounmpo defensively in the games they beat Milwaukee.
Williams’ 3-and-D ability and performance in the playoffs likely raised his value in negotiations. One potential contractual comparison given his similar skillset and role Larry Nance Jr., who is set to earn $9.6 million next season. Boston may have to give Williams an annual salary worth more than the projected non-taxpayer MLE over the next few seasons to secure him this offseason.
Brown is another extension-eligible player but it seems unlikely that he would accept it since it’s way below the maximum salary. He will probably garner maximum contract offers when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2024. Al Horford is also extension-eligible, but the Celtics may require a significant discount or a descending salary structure given their upcoming tax concerns.
2022-23 SALARY SITUATION
Guaranteed salaries: $143,067,419
Non-guaranteed salaries: $14,025,753
Total salary: $157,093,172
Luxury tax space: $8.3 million over ($13.2 million tax payment)
Exceptions:
Taxpayer Mid-level: $6,392,000
Evan Fournier trade exception: $17,142,857 (expires on July 18, 2022)
Juancho Hernangomez trade exception: $6,907,815 (expires on January 18, 2023)
Dennis Schroder trade exception: $5,890,000 (expires on February 10, 2023)
Romeo Langford trade exception: $3,804,360 (expires on February 10, 2023)
Bol Bol trade exception: $2,161,152 (expires on February 10, 2023)
PJ Dozier trade exception: $1,910,860 (expires on February 10, 2023)
Bruno Fernando trade exception: $1,782,621 (expires on February 10, 2023)
Enes Kanter Freedom trade exception: $1,669,178 (expires on February 10, 2023)
Tristan Thompson trade exception: $1,440,549 (expires on July 7, 2022)
Moses Brown trade exception: $500,000 (expires on June 29, 2022)
Jayson Tatum
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $30,351,780
Remaining salary guaranteed: $134,896,800 through 2025-26
Additional notes: Tatum has a player option worth $37.1 million in 2025-26.
He also has a 15 percent trade bonus that would be voided if traded since he is already earning a maximum contract.
Jaylen Brown
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $28,741,071
Remaining salary guaranteed: $55,178,572 through 2023-24
Additional notes: Brown has $2.1 million in likely incentives in 2022-23.
He will also become extension-eligible starting on July 6, 2022 through the first day of the regular season for a base of up to three years, $110.8 million.
Al Horford
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $26,500,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $14,500,000
Additional notes: Horford’s $26.5 million salary for 2022-23 is partially guaranteed for $19.5 million and becomes fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date.
He will also become extension-eligible starting on July 6, 2022 through June 30, 2023 for up to two years, $66.1 million.
Marcus Smart
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $17,207,142
Remaining salary guaranteed: $77,087,996
Additional notes: Smart has a $1 million trade bonus that would increase his salary by $250,000 on each of the next four years of his contract.
Derrick White
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $16,892,857
Remaining salary guaranteed: $52,821,429
Additional notes: White has $1.25 million in annual incentives, $500,000 of which are deemed likely.
Robert Williams III
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $10,937,502
Remaining salary guaranteed: $48,000,000
Additional notes: Williams III has $1.3 million in incentives for 2022-23, $223,215 of which are deemed likely.
Daniel Theis
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $8,694,369
Remaining salary guaranteed: $17,802,755
Additional notes: Theis has a $9.5 million team option for 2024-25.
Grant Williams
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $4,306,281
Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,306,281
Additional notes: Williams is eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension through the day before the regular season.
Aaron Nesmith
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2022-23 salary: $3,804,360
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,438,617 through 2023-24 (assuming his team option for 2023-24 gets picked up)
Payton Pritchard
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $2,239,200
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,276,478 through 2023-24 (assuming his team option for 2023-24 gets picked up)
Nik Stauskas
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
2022-23 salary: $2,193,920
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes: Stauskas’ $2.2 million salary is non-guaranteed and becomes fully guaranteed if not waived by July 15, 2022.
Juwan Morgan
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2022-23 salary: $1,815,677 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Malik Fitts
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2022-23 salary: $1,752,638
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes: Fitts’ $1.8 million salary is non-guaranteed and becomes partially guaranteed for $50,000 if not waived by September 1, 2022. It becomes fully guaranteed if not waived by the league wide cutdown date.
Sam Hauser
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
2022-23 salary: $1,563,518 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $300,000
Additional notes: Hauser’s $1.6 million salary is partially guaranteed for $300,000 and becomes fully guaranteed if not waived by the league wide cutdown date.
Luke Kornet
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Cap hold: $1,811,516
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Matt Ryan
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Cap hold: $1,616,044
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Brodric Thomas
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,616,044
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
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