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The Houston Texans aren’t really expected to be in contention for the AFC South. They are expected to finish last place in the division.
According to Tyler Sullivan from CBS Sports, the Texans have a difficult journey to even win more than five games in 2022.
While the Texans may be able to surprise folks at times next year, their road isn’t easy as they have the fifth-hardest schedule based on their opponents’ win total projections. Even some of their more winnable games next year are on the road: at Bears in Week 3 and at Giants in Week 10. For Houston to see five more wins, they’d likely need to take care of those games, beat the Commanders at home in Week 11 and sweep the Jaguars in the division. Asking a team like the Texans to pull out three road wins just to get in the conversation of this total may be too big of an ask.
Houston is projected to win 4.5 games according to CBS Sports.
While it isn’t surprising that the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts would both be favorites with 9.5 wins projected, the real reason why Houston is getting pushed to the bottom of the division is the expected rise of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence is expected to take a leap in his second year as the Jaguars’ starting quarterback, and Jacksonville incontrovertibly upgraded at coach with the Doug Pederson hire.
While the Texans have been on their four-win-a-season odyssey the past two years, the Jaguars have always been worse, which has kept Houston out of the AFC South basement. If the Texans are still struggling with the rebuild as the Jaguars finally take the next step, it would relegate Houston to a last-place finish in the division, a feat not seen since 2017 when the Texans posted a 4-12 record.