NC State vs. Syracuse (-2)
This will be the third meeting of the season between the two teams, with Syracuse winning both regular-season games. In those matchups, NC State had Thomas Allen, who will not be available for this game.
Allen scored six and 17 points on Syracuse this season, averaging a combined 5.5 rebounds and assists versus them too. He and Devon Daniels have missed extensive time for the Wolfpack and appear done for the season.
Syracuse is in desperate need of a win and if they lose here, there is a significant chance the season is over. For NC State, they would have to continue this five-game winning streak deep into the ACC Tournament if they want a chance at the big dance. Syracuse has won two straight games, beating Clemson and North Carolina, both impressive victories. They are both in the same boat, needing more than one victory to solidify their NCAA Tournament or at-large spot bid.
This will be a neutral court game, but not taking place far from NC State's campus. This game will take place in Greensboro, about an hour and 15-minutes away from Raleigh.
What I noticed among both these teams during their winning streaks was the offense. NC State played Pitt twice, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Virginia in that stretch. Their average game score in three of those five games was 147, 142 and 149. Against Syracuse, the scores ended at 145 and 149.
Versus Virginia, NC State scored 68 points in a win, holding them to 61. in the second meeting with Pitt, NC State finished that game poorly, only scoring 13 points in the final 10 minutes for 65 total points.
NBC Sports Edge's Tools provide the best bet for the Over. I like the Over as it is tough to beat the same opponent three times in a row, making it hard to pick a side. NC State is 14-3 (82.4%) to the Over in NC State's last 17 games as an underdog. The Over is 23-9-1 (71.9%) in Syracuse's last 33 games against a winning ML record team.
Last five meetings between NC State and Syracuse
2021: Syracuse 77, NC State 68 (145)
2021: Syracuse 76, NC State 73 (149)
2020: NC State 79, Syracuse 74 (153)
2019: NC State 73, Syracuse 58 (131)
2018: NC State 74, Syracuse 70 (144)
These teams have combined for 144 points or more in four of the last five meetings and 145 or more in three straight. On the season, when both teams are coming off four days of rest or more, the Over has hit every time. NC State is 7-0 to the Over and Syracuse 4-0 on the year on four-plus days of rest.
NC State is 4-1 to the Over in the last five games during this winning streak. Syracuse's their average game score on the road this season has been 153.3 points per game. For NC State, that number is 149.4 points per game in road and neutral court matchups. With Syracuse's back against the wall, I can see them crossing the 70-mark as they have done it six-of-nine (66.6%) times away from home. The Orange have only two road wins this season, 101-63 victory against Boston College (Dec. 12) and NC State (Feb. 9). Syracuse has gone 2-5 SU (28.5%) in road games this season.
NC State is 3-8 Over/Under at home this season and 10-1 O/U on the road or neutral courts. Expect both teams to want this win badly, and in the third meeting, NC State to figure this zone out a little more. Syracuse shot well from deep in the first two meetings, going 17-of-40 (42.5%) and expect the trey-ball to be another point of emphasis in order to advance.
I like the chances both teams surpass 70 points, with the winner of the two crossing the 75-point threshold.
Game Pick: Over 145.5 (1u) - playable to 146.5
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