California Blog - College

The following is a statistical analysis courtesy of RealBear65

At Buffalo, Zach Maynard's toughest competition occurred in the first 4 games. Despite his opponents in the middle 4 games and last 4 games being weaker and having weaker pass defenses, Zach's completion percentage and PER both went down. Since there's no public info concerning an injury to Zach at Buffalo later in 2009, it would seem that his decline in efficiency/production in the face of weaker opponents and despite being more experienced was indeed self-inflicted.

Maynard finished 2009 at Buffalo ranked 8th out of 11 MAC Conf QBs in completion percentage and 7th out of 11 in PER (Passer Efficiency Rating). So far this season at Cal, Maynard ranks 12th in completion % among Pac-12 QBs and 10th in PER.

Zach Maynard at Buffalo in 2009:

Games Opp. Avg. Sagarin Opp. W/L Opp. Avg. Def. PER Comp. % PER
1-4 70.51 .608 130.20 64.6% 139.32
5-8 57.85 .531 125.60 56.9% 126.22
9-12 60.27 .431 121.36 49.6% 105.90

Zach Maynard at Cal in 2011 (First 5 games):

Games Comp. % PER
1-4 52.2% 137.05
5 48.8% 101.49

Unlike at Buffalo, the competition in game #5 this season (Oregon) was much higher than our first 4 opponents. But, despite a healthy 137.05 PER against our first 4 opponents, here's how Cal ranked in terms of our PER against each opponent so far this season:

Cal's PER Against Each Opponent Ranked Against Other Opponents:
Fresno St. = 4 of 6
Colorado = 3 of 6
Presbyterian = 4 of 5
Washington = 4 of 5
Oregon = 5 of 5

So, while the Bears' passing game looked to be OK earlier in the season, Cal's opponents were rather weak and had very bad pass defenses. As an example, the Bears' offensive PER against Washington was only 4th best out of their first 5 opponents. Against Oregon, Cal's offensive PER ranks dead last among their first 5 opponents.

While I hope it's not the case, it looks to me that Maynard is akin to "fools gold" and we're starting to see his self-inflicted problems at Buffalo repeated at Cal.

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