Buying the post-Challenge dip on NBA Top Shot

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In last week’s column, I focused on buying the dip on Moments after drops but before Challenges were announced, and I mentioned in that column an interesting phenomenon I was seeing, in which the Moments of star players from the Metallic Gold Limited Edition (MGLE) drop have been able to retain their value post-Challenge. This is something I’ve never seen before on Top Shot, and not only does it make completing these Challenges far more alluring, but it also presents us with another opportunity to buy the post-Challenge dip with the intention of selling on the recovery.

I’m not going to focus on the Legendary Challenges in this column, because the cost of completing them is out of reach for most collectors and between the first two Deck the Hoops Challenges, we’ve only seen a total of 70 completions. I’m also going to skip over the non-star players from the Fresh Threads drop, as those guys didn’t see much movement in general, but I will highlight DeMar DeRozan, Kelly Oubre and the Reward Moments from that set.

My main focus in this column will be on set completion Challenges, with an eye on the MGLE S3 set, as I think what’s happening with these Moments is truly fascinating.

But, before we delve into the data, I just wanted to highlight that through the month of December, Top Shot saw the second-most total transactions through any month in their existence, with $40 million-plus in peer-to-peer buys. The market is pumping right now, and with Top Shot regularly offering generous promos to new collectors, it’s tough to imagine a better time to get in on the fun.

Buying the post-Challenge dip

As you will see below, it appears the time to buy the dip after the Challenge clock strikes zero is roughly 9-10 hours after the Challenge concludes. The Moments tend to see their value hold for about three hours after the Challenge ends, and then they’ll often see a precipitous drop over the next 6-7 hours. However, the star players tend to recover a lot of their value by the next day. It’s important to note that this doesn’t happen with the low-end role players such as Reggie Jackson or Dillon Brooks, so if you want to attempt this strategy, make sure you’re focusing on high-name-recognition stars.

It also seems that the Moments involved in the first MGLE Challenge saw a more significant dip than the Moments in the second MGLE Challenge, but it’s tough to pinpoint exactly why. It could be that folks have caught on and are willing to hold longer to negate a big, post-challenge loss, or it could simply be that three of the seven players in that Challenge were low-end role players, and LBJ’s inclusion in that Challenge made it tough to complete for most folks.

We’ll have a clearer idea of all this once the third and final MGLE Challenge concludes, but for now, we’ll focus on the data we have.

MGLE 1

Challenge ended at 12:00 pm MT on Dec. 28, 2021

Cole Anthony

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:45 am – $158, holds at $155 until 2:42 pm, then starts to tank
8:52 pm – down to $108, but by 10 am the next day it recovers to $150

Current lowest ask: $145
Potential profit: ~$37

Franz Wagner

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:17 am – $248, holds until 3 pm
10:00 pm – $214, then starts climbing overnight
midnight it’s back to $300 and cruising upwards ever since

Current lowest ask: $385
Potential profit: ~$171

Joel Embiid

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:30 am – $209, holds until 2:41 pm
5:28 pm – steep decline to $165
climbs back up to $180 by midnight and continues to climb into the wee hours of the morning
2:00 pm the next day he’s at $205

Current lowest ask: $220
Potential profit: ~$55

Jordan Clarkson

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
12:00 pm – $110
3:45 – tanks to $85
Recovers marginally to $90

This isn’t a good strategy for role players

Current lowest ask: $101 (inflated by recent flash challenge)

Lonzo Ball

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:52 am – $278, holds until 3:00 pm
5:30 pm – steep decline to $210
10:00 pm starts climbing again and by 2:34 am he’s at $260
4 sales at $260 from 12/30 – 12/31, tanks to $215 by midnight 1/1, but then slowly recovers to $260 by 1/5

Current lowest ask: $264
Potential profit: ~$54

Nikola Jokic

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:35 am – $235, holds until 3:00 pm
5:00 pm – $200
5:39 pm – $218
String of purchases from midnight to 3:00 am for $220
1:00 pm next day at $247
Handful of deescalating sales from that point until midnight where he bottoms out at $215
Hangs around $220-$230

Current lowest ask: $231
Potential profit: ~$31

Terry Rozier

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:49 am – $130, holds until 2:47 pm
5:00 pm – $89
8:40 pm – $95, bunch of sales in this range until 3:00 am
3:00 pm next day he’s at $128

Current lowest ask: $127
Potential profit: ~$38

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MGLE 2

Challenge ended at 12 pm MT on Jan. 4, 2022

Chris Paul

Post Challenge CP3
Post Challenge CP3

Timeline
11:54 am – $199, holds until 2:50 pm
3:42 pm – $165
6:15 pm – $198

9:43 pm – $165
Holds at $165 with small jumps until 1:31 pm the next day
Gradual climb to $188

Current lowest ask: $183
Potential profit: ~$18

Dillon Brooks

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
$111 high before challenge ended, afterwards it tanked to ~$75; this doesn’t work with role players

Current lowest ask: $83

Jordan Poole

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
Last sale before challenge ends at 10:11 – $187
12:26 pm – $179
2:38 pm – $191
Next sale is at 3:30 pm for $175
8:12 pm – $165
9:54 pm – $140
Climbs to $160 overnight
Hover around $160, then at 5:00 pm one day after challenge ended, shoots up from $158 to $180 by 8:00 pm

Current lowest ask: $175
Potential profit: ~$40

LeBron James

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
LBJ hasn’t recovered from his Challenge high, but his floor of $1,150 is higher than his initial dip after the drop to $1,049. LeBron James Moments don’t follow the same rules as most players – they’re going to be expensive and out of reach if a Rare.

Lu Dort

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Dort didn’t recover his value because he’s not a star player. Again, I wouldn’t recommend buying the dip on role players who play for bad teams.

Current lowest ask: $105

Miles Bridges

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

Timeline
11:49 am – $175, holds until 2:39 pm

Gradual decline, but by 8:44 pm bottoms out at $140 and stays there until about 2:30 pm the next day

Current lowest ask: $158
Potential profit: ~$18

I think that this Bridges Moment could continue an upward ascent over the coming days, as he’s a popular player from a popular Team Set, who can give you a +200 Collector Score bonus if you have the Full Team Set. I think that Bridges should come away with the Most Improved Player Award this season, and once that’s announced, all of his Moments could see a spike in value. However, this Metallic Gold Moment is particularly attractive right now with a relatively low cost for a high-name recognition guy and an uber-attractive Edition Size of 749.

Reggie Jackson

Post Challenge
Post Challenge

This is the third example of why you shouldn’t try this strategy with low-end role players.

Current lowest ask: $82

Fresh Threads

Challenge 2 for the Fresh Threads set featured DeMar DeRozan for a Lonzo Ball Reward and ended on Dec. 6 at 11 am MT. Challenge 3 of the Fresh Threads set involved Kelly Oubre for a Kemba Walker reward and that one ended on Dec. 10 at 11 am MT.

DeMar DeRozan

DD Fresh Threads
DD Fresh Threads

Timeline
11:00 – $15
12:00 – $7
12/18 (12 days after the Challenge ended) starts climbing

Current lowest ask: $19
Potential profit: $12

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Tsunami Papi Fresh Threads
Tsunami Papi Fresh Threads

Timeline
11:00 – $20
6:10 – $10, climbs up to $14 overnight
Gradual rise to $25

Current lowest ask: $25
Potential profit: $15

This is a bottleneck Moment for the Full Team Set to Charlotte, which may be keeping his value artificially high, but he’s currently the most expensive non-Reward Fresh Threads Moment with a lowest ask of $24.

Lonzo Ball – Fresh Threads Reward

Lonzo Reward
Lonzo Reward

Carmelo Anthony – Fresh Threads Reward

Melo Reward
Melo Reward

Kemba Walker – Fresh Threads Reward

Kemba Reward
Kemba Reward

As you can see, with all three of these Moments (even a benched Kemba Walker), they saw a steady rise in their floor price over time. This has thus far not been true with the Reward Moments for the MGLE’s, but that might be because they have a much higher floor to begin with. So, while I can’t currently recommend going after Reward Moments from the Rare drops, it does look to be a worthwhile endeavor with the non-Base Set Commons in Series 3.