Breaking down the Patriots' historic point spread over the Dolphins

The Patriots opened as 14.5-point favorites for their Week 2 road matchup at the Dolphins.

Shocking to none, that didn't last long — about 10 minutes, actually, according to our data.

So what sparked the move? Well:

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  • The Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens at home, 59-10.

  • The Patriots beat the Steelers at home, 33-3.

The Dolphins were also projected to be the worst team entering the regular season, with the lowest win total and worst Super Bowl odds, while the Patriots were favored to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Still, the lookahead line at Cantor Gaming for this Week 2 matchup was only 8.5 points over the offseason, but not so much anymore.

New England is currently a 19-point road favorite in Miami at PointsBet, making the Patriots the largest point-spread favorite since the Broncos faced the Jaguars as 27-point favorites back in 2013.

Let's break down everything there is to know about this historic point spread.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) speaks with head coach Bill Belichick, right, during NFL football practice, Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2019, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) speaks with head coach Bill Belichick, right, during NFL football practice, Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2019, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Patriots' history as massive favorites

Since 1993, 120 NFL teams have been favored by more than two touchdowns. Those teams are 115-5 (95.8%) straight up and 57-60-3 (48.7%) against the spread.

Only 20 teams have closed above a 17-point favorite over that span, going 5-15 ATS and failing to cover the number by an average of 5.1 points per game.

But the Patriots have been the exception to the rule: Since 2007, New England is 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS when favored by more than two touchdowns.

Since 1993, no team has been listed as a favorite of more than 17 points more often than the Patriots have. And if they close above that threshold this week, it would be the sixth time over that span. They're 0-5 ATS in those previous five games, failing to cover the number by 12.4 points per game.

Tom Brady is 12-3 SU but only 7-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite. And all three of those straight-up losses came … on the road against the Miami Dolphins.

  • Patriots at Dolphins (+10) in 2017: Miami won, 27-20

  • Patriots at Dolphins (+10) in 2016: Miami won, 20-10

  • Patriots at Dolphins (+10.5) in 2004: Miami won, 29-28

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