Breaking down Florida’s game-by-game predictions using FPI

·3 min read

Florida football is looking to bounce back from a disappointing season that saw its worst performance in Southeastern Conference play since the mid-1980s. Dan Mullen was removed before the sub-.500 season culminated with an embarrassing loss to the UCF Knights in the Gasparilla Bowl, which sent the university brass scrambling for its replacement in Billy Napier.

The new head coach has brought in a fresh approach to building a college football program and many are expecting to see immediate results. Whether that is fair or not is in the eye of the beholder, but the heat is on in Gainesville — and it’s not just the swelting summer sun.

Casting aside emotions and the “eye test” we turn to more objective measures to gauge how the fall schedule might play out. Among the many statistical models available is ESPN’s Football Power Index, which measures team strength with the intent of providing the best indicator of future projections as a team progresses through the season. The results are based on 20,000 simulations which are distilled to represent how many points above or below average a team is.

Take a look below at a game-by-game breakdown of the odds for each respective game and how that forecasts overall for the Florida Gators.

September 3 vs. Utah Utes

Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 52.1%

Running Record Tally: 1-0

September 10 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 51.1%

Running Record Tally: 2-0

September 17 vs. South Florida Bulls

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Win Probability: 87.7%

Running Record Tally: 3-0

September 24 at Tennessee Volunteers

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 39.8%

Running Record Tally: 3-1

October 1 vs. Eastern Washington Eagles

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Win Probability: 96.9%

Running Record Tally: 4-1

October 8 vs. Missouri Tigers (Homecoming)

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 78.3%

Running Record Tally: 5-1

October 15 vs. LSU Tigers

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Win Probability: 44.7%

Running Record Tally: 5-2

October 29 vs. Georgia (Jacksonville)

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 9.6%

Running Record Tally: 5-3

November 5 at Texas A&M Aggies

Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 29.7%

Running Record Tally: 5-4

November 12 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 69.9%

Running Record Tally: 6-4

November 19 at Vanderbilt Commodores

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

Win Probability: 86.8%

Running Record Tally: 7-4

November 25 (Friday) at Florida State Seminoles

James Gilbert/Getty Images

Win Probability: 43.3%

Running Record Tally: 7-5

Final Record

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Florida’s 2022 projection: 7-5

Highest win probability: vs. Eastern Washinton (96.9%)

Lowest win probability: vs. Georgia (9.6%)

Toss-up games: Utah (52.1%), Kentucky (51.1%)

Chance of winning division: 2.4%

Chance of winning conference: 0.3%

Chance of making playoffs: 0%

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