Breaking down Auburn’s game-by-game predictions using the FPI

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We are approaching the 2022 college football season and the Auburn Tigers have retribution on their minds.

The 2021 campaign ended about as poorly as it can get with five-straight losses after beginning 6-2. There will be a new quarterback under center when the season begins after three-year starter Bo Nix opted to join the Oregon Ducks.

A former Ducks quarterback, Robby Ashford, is among the list of players fighting to take the starting job. Many believe it will be former Texas A&M QB Zach Calzada that ultimately takes the job. The dynamic duo at running back is looking to carry the load with Tank Bigsby and last year’s standout freshman Jarquez Hunter.

The defense could be the stronger unit for head coach Bryan Harsin with Derick Hall and Colby Wooden leading the charge. Nehemiah Pritchett is hoping to fill the void left by Roger McCreary, who was drafted in the second round by the Tennessee Titans.

Recently former Auburn offensive lineman Cole Cubelic and former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy discussed the potential record for the upcoming season. Both are higher on the Tigers than the general consensus. Even the Football Power Index generated by ESPN has high hopes for this team in year two of the Bryan Harsin era.

We break it down game-by-game:

Sept. 3: vs Mercer Bears

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 99.6%

Running Record Tally: 1-0

Sept. 10: vs San Jose State Trojans

(Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 96.3%

Running Record Tally: 2-0

Sept. 17: vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 62.6%

Running Record Tally: 3-0

Sept. 24: vs Missouri Tigers

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 85.6%

Running Record Tally: 4-0

Oct. 1: vs LSU Tigers

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 57.4%

Running Record Tally: 5-0

Oct. 8: at Georgia Bulldogs (Deep South's Oldest Rivalry)

Jake Crandall/USA TODAY Sports Network

Win Probability: 11.3%

Running Record Tally: 5-1

Oct. 15: at Ole Miss Rebels

Michael Chang/Getty Images

Win Probability: 45.4%

Running Record Tally: 5-2

Oct. 29: vs Arkansas Razorbacks

Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 69.9%

Running Record Tally: 6-2

Nov. 5: at Mississippi State Bulldogs

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 47.7%

Running Record Tally: 6-3

Nov. 12: vs Texas A&M Aggies

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 61.2%

Running Record Tally: 7-3

Nov. 19: vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 88.5%

Running Record Tally: 8-3

Nov. 26: at Alabama Crimson Tide (Iron Bowl)


Win Probability: 10.1%

Running Record Tally: 8-4

Final Record

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn’s 2022 projection: 8-4

Highest win probability: 99.6% vs Mercer Bears

Lowest win probability: 10.1% (The Iron Bowl)

Toss-up game: 47.7% vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

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