You have to deep pockets to take a shot at the boxing board on Saturday. Given that Mikaela Mayer is -4000 to win her fight and that both Jermall Charlo and Naoya Inoue are -3300 to win theirs, you’re going to have to bet a lot to win a little.
With Teofimo Lopez’s bout in Miami on Saturday against George Kambosos postponed because Lopez has COVID-19, all of the bouts that are on the betting menu at BetMGM feature massive favorites.
Mayer will defend her WBO super featherweight title on Saturday at Virgin Hotel in Las Vegas against Erika Farias. Mayer is -4000 to win and Farias is +1400. In the main event of that card, Inoue is -3300 to defeat Michael Dasmirnas, who is +1200.
In Houston, Charlo will defend the WBC middleweight title against Juan Macias Montiel at the Toyota Center. Charlo is -3300 and Montiel is +1200.
Now, I could put $100 on each of the underdogs and hope to get lucky. At the minimum in that case, I’d make a $1,000 profit.
But the odds of any underdog of that stature covering are massive. Betting on any of the favorites, though, would require a massive outlay to make any profit. You’d have to lay $4,000 to win $1,000 on Mayer, for example.
The implied odds of Mayer at -4000 are 97.56 percent. Inoue and Charlo have implied odds of 97.06 percent. Conversely, Farias’ implied odds are only 6.67 percent and Dasmarinas and Montiel have implied odds of 7.69 percent. That shouldn’t make you optimistic.
So I will attack this by betting on the totals. Mayer is 14-0 with five knockouts, while Farias is 26-4 with 10 knockouts. Farias hasn’t been stopped in any of her losses.
Thus, I’ll bet that fight to go the distance.
It’s almost a guarantee that Inoue will stop Dasmarinas. Inoue is 20-0 with 17 KOs, while Dasmarinas is 30-2-1 and was stopped once, early in his career. The question is, how long does it take Inoue to get it done. I will say he’ll finish him in six or less, so I would approach the betting that way.
Charlo is 31-0 with 22 KOs, Montiel is 22-4-2 with 22 KOs. But one of his four defeats was by KO to Jaime Munguia.
So I’ll bet Charlo to win in under the distance, but won’t go any deeper than that.
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