Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Predictions: Week 11

·12 min read

2021 College Football News bowl projections, predictions and possible matchups for the College Football Playoff: Week 11

CFN 1-130 Rankings | Week 11 scoreboard
Week 12 opening lines | AP | Coaches
College Football Playoff Top 25 Prediction
Big Game Reaction: Michigan, Baylor, more

Bowl Projections: Week 11

Key Bubble Teams Projected In & Out
Need 6 wins to be bowl eligible

Projected In: Charlotte (5-5: Marshall at Old Dominion)
– Missouri (5-5: Florida, at Arkansas)
– Maryland vs Rutgers winner

Projected Out: LSU (4-6: ULM, Texas A&M)
– Old Dominion (4-6: at Middle Tennessee, Charlotte)
– San Jose State (5-6: Fresno State)
– South Alabama (5-5: at Tennessee, Coastal Carolina)
– South Carolina (5-5: Auburn, Clemson)
– Syracuse (5-5: at NC State, Pitt)
– Texas (4-6: at West Virginia, Kansas State)
– USC (4-5: UCLA, BYU, at Cal)
– Virginia Tech (5-5: at Miami, at Virginia)
– Maryland vs Rutgers loser

Before we get going, here’s the crazy call that we think we have right, and begging all forgiveness in the meantime as everyone is checking to make sure.

There probably won’t be enough six-win, bowl eligible teams. With 4-7 Hawaii losing to UNLV yesterday, it probably won’t get to six – it normally needs seven – with Colorado State and at Wyoming to close. So …

It comes down to the top five-win teams among the Graduation Success Rate. Of the teams ranked highest on GSR that should matter for …

– Illinois (4-6: GSR 90, at Illinois, Northwestern)
– South Carolina (5-5: GSR 89, Auburn, Clemson)
– Syracuse (5-5: GSR 88, at NC State, Pitt)

Again, looking into this as we speak – assuming things go back to the way they were before 2020 – but for now we’ll slip in one five-win team into the mix.

All times Eastern

Bahamas Bowl

Friday, December 17
ESPN, 12:00 pm
Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Bowl Tie-Ins: Conference USA vs. MAC
Bowl Projection: Charlotte vs Kent State
Last Year: Canceled

Cure Bowl

Friday, December 17
ESPN2, 6:00 pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: Group of Five vs. Group of Five (or Army)
Bowl Projection: Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
Last Year: Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ESPN, 11:00 am
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: Group of Five vs. Group of Five (or Army)
Bowl Projection: Appalachian State vs Marshall
Last Year: BYU 49, UCF 23

Cricket Celebration Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ABC, 12:00 pm
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Bowl Tie-Ins: MEAC vs. SWAC
Bowl Projection: South Carolina State vs Jackson State
Last Year: Canceled

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ESPN, 2:15 pm
Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Bowl Tie-Ins: C-USA vs. Mountain West
Bowl Projection: Middle Tennessee vs Nevada
Last Year: Hawaii 28, Houston 14

CFN Rankings of All 130 Teams

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ABC, 3:30 pm
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Bowl Tie-Ins: C-USA vs. BYU
Bowl Projection: UTSA vs BYU
Last Year: Canceled

LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ESPN, 5:45 pm
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL
Bowl Tie-Ins: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: Eastern Michigan vs Georgia State
Last Year: Georgia State 39, WKU 21

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ABC, 7:30 pm
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Bowl Tie-Ins: Mountain West vs. Pac-12
Bowl Projection: San Diego State vs Oregon State
Last Year: Canceled

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, December 18
ESPN, 9:15 pm
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Bowl Tie-Ins: C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Bowl Projection: UAB vs Louisiana
Last Year: Georgia Southern 38, Louisiana Tech 3

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, December 20
ESPN, 2:30 pm
Brooks Stadium, Conway, SC
Bowl Tie-Ins: Sun Belt vs. AAC or MAC or Group of 5
Bowl Projection: Coastal Carolina vs Ball State
Last Year: Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, December 21
ESPN, 3:30 pm
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Bowl Tie-Ins: MAC vs. Mountain West
Bowl Projection: Miami University vs Boise State
Last Year: Nevada 38, Tulane 27

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, December 21
ESPN, 7:30 pm
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: Group of Five vs. Group of Five (or Army)
Bowl Projection: UTEP vs Wyoming
Last Year: Canceled

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, December 22
ESPN, 7:30 pm
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big 12 or C-USA or Pac-12 or Army
Bowl Projection: Washington State vs Army
Last Year: Mississippi State 28, Tulsa 26

Union Home Mortgage Bowl

Thursday, December 23
ESPN, 7:00 pm
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: AAC or ACC or Pac-12 or SEC
Bowl Projection: Liberty vs Missouri
Last Year: Canceled

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, December 24
ESPN, 8:00 pm
Clarence TC Ching Complex, Honolulu, HI
Bowl Tie-Ins: American Athletic vs. Mountain West
Bowl Projection: East Carolina vs Utah State
Last Year: Canceled

Camellia Bowl

Saturday, December 25
ESPN, 2:30 pm
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Bowl Tie-Ins: MAC vs. Sun Belt (or C-USA)
Bowl Projection: Toledo vs Troy
Last Year: Memphis 25, Florida Atlantic 10

NEXT: More Bowl Projections: Week 11

Bowl Projections: Week 11

Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, December 27
ESPN, 11:00 am
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. MAC
Bowl Projection: Illinois* vs Western Michigan
*Best guess call – for now. There won’t be enough bowl eligible teams and projected 5-7 Illinois gets in on Graduation Success Rate
Last Year: Canceled

Military Bowl presented by Peraton

Monday, December 27
ESPN, 2:30 pm
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Bowl Tie-Ins: American vs. ACC
Bowl Projection: SMU vs Miami
Last Year: Canceled

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, December 28
ESPN, 12:00 pm
Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
Bowl Tie-Ins: American Athletic vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: WKU vs Memphis
*No SEC team projected available
Last Year: Canceled

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, December 28
ESPN, 3:15 pm
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: AAC or ACC or Big 12 or Pac-12
Bowl Projection: UCF vs Air Force
Last Year: Louisiana 31, UTSA 24

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, December 28
ESPN, 6:45 pm
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, TN
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big 12 vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: West Virginia vs Florida
Last Year: West Virginia 24, Army 21

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, December 28
FOX, 8:00 pm
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Bowl Tie-Ins: ACC vs. Pac-12
Bowl Projection: NC State vs UCLA
Last Year: Canceled

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, December 28
FOX, 10:15 pm
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. Big 12
Bowl Projection: Maryland vs Texas Tech
Last Year: Canceled

Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, December 29
ESPN, 11:00 am
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Bowl Tie-Ins: AAC vs. ACC (or C-USA)
Bowl Projection: Houston vs Boston College

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, December 29
ESPN, 2:15 pm
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Bowl Tie-Ins: ACC vs. Big Ten
Bowl Projection: Virginia vs Penn State
Last Year: Canceled

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, December 29
ESPN, 5:45 pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: ACC vs. Big 12
Bowl Projection: Pitt vs Kansas State
Last Year: Oklahoma State 37, Miami 34

Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, December 29
ESPN, 9:15 pm
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs Utah
Last Year: Texas 55, Colorado 23

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Thursday, December 30
ESPN, 11:30 am
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Bowl Tie-Ins: ACC vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: North Carolina vs Kentucky
Last Year: Wisconsin 42, Wake Forest 28

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, December 30
ESPN, 3:00 pm
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: Minnesota vs Tennessee
Last Year: Canceled

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, December 30
ESPN, 10:30 pm
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Purdue vs Arizona State
Last Year: Canceled

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, December 31
ESPN, 11:00 am
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: ACC vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: Clemson vs Auburn
Last Year: Kentucky 23, NC State 21

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, December 31
CBS, 12:30 pm
Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: ACC vs. Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Louisville vs Washington
Last Year: Canceled

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, December 31
Barstool Sports, 2:00 pm
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Bowl Tie-Ins: MAC vs. Mountain West
Bowl Projection: Northern Illinois vs Fresno State
Last Year: Ball State 34, San Jose State 13

Outback Bowl

Saturday, January 1
ESPN2, 12:00 pm
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: Iowa vs Mississippi State
Last Year: Ole Miss 26, Indiana 20

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, January 1
ABC, 1:00 pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: Wisconsin vs Texas A&M
Last Year: Northwestern 35, Auburn 19

Mercari Texas Bowl

Tuesday, January 4
ESPN, Time TBA
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big 12 vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: Iowa State vs Arkansas
Last Year: Canceled

NEXT: New Year’s Six Bowl Projections, Week 11

New Year’s Six Bowl Projections: Week 11

The College Football Playoff committee wants to create the best matchups possible. Geography will matter a wee bit, but it’s all about creating the best matchups possible.

All Power Five conferences get a team into either the New Year’s Six or the College Football Playoff. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC all get a top team into one of the big games, and the top-ranked Group of Five champion is in, too.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, December 30
ESPN, 7:00 pm
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Bowl Tie-Ins: At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Ole Miss vs Wake Forest
Last Year: Georgia 24, Cincinnati 21

Set the over/under on this at about 300. The winner of the ACC Championship – likely Pitt vs Wake Forest – will almost certainly be here along with the third-best SEC option.

Playstation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, January 1
ESPN, 1:00 pm
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Bowl Tie-Ins: At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Michigan State vs Notre Dame
Last Year: Iowa State 34, Oregon 17

It all depends on whether or not the College Football Playoff committee keeps Michigan ahead of Michigan State, and that all depends on what happens over the next two weeks when Ohio State gets the Spartans and then the Wolverines. Assuming the Buckeyes win those two, and both by roughly the same margin, the lower-ranked Big Ten will be here and the higher-ranked one will go to …

Rose Bowl Game

Saturday, January 1
ESPN, 5:00 pm
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Bowl Projection: Michigan vs Oregon
Last Year: Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14

The call continues to be that Oregon will lose to Utah in Salt Lake City, but it’s not going to happen a second time in a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship. Again, flip a coin on Michigan and Michigan State to be here depending on how each one handles Ohio State.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, January 1
ESPN, 8:45 pm
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Bowl Tie-Ins: Big 12 vs. SEC
Bowl Projection: Baylor vs Alabama
Last Year: Ohio State 49, Clemson 28

The call is that Georgia beats Bama in the SEC Championship, but don’t be totally stunned if Auburn ruins things before that at home against the Tide. The Big 12 is stickier. Here we go …

Baylor wins out against Kansas State on the road and Texas Tech at home, and Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma in the regular season finale. Baylor would then go to the Big 12 Championship with a rematch of an earlier loss to OSU. The Cowboys win again, so …

NEXT: 2021-2022 College Football Playoff Projections

2021-2022 College Football Playoff Projections

Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, December 31
ESPN, Time TBA
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Georgia vs Cincinnati
Last Year: Texas A&M 41, North Carolina 27

Georgia gets its choice as the No. 1 overall seed – it’ll want the Orange Bowl, and Cincinnati will slip on in at 13-0 after 1) Wake Forest loses again, so there’s no one-loss ACC Champion, and 2) Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship and 3) Oregon loses to Utah but goes on to win the Pac-12 Championship.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

Friday, December 31
ESPN, Time TBA
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma State vs Ohio State
Last Year: Oklahoma 55, Florida 20

Plug in whatever one-loss Big Ten champion ends up getting through – but don’t dismiss the idea that, possibly, Wisconsin and that defense pulls off something amazing in the conference title game. Ohio State will struggle, but it’ll get through a gauntlet of a final three games for the No. 2 spot.

Oklahoma State is the funkier call. It beats Texas Tech on the road and takes care of Oklahoma at home, Baylor wins its last two games to get to the Big 12 Championship, and Oklahoma State wins the rematch to be 12-1 on the way to the No. 3 seed.

College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T

Monday, January 10
ESPN, 8:00 pm
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs Georgia
Last Year: Alabama 52, Ohio State 24

CFN 1-130 Rankings | Week 11 scoreboard
Week 12 opening lines | AP | Coaches
College Football Playoff Top 25 Prediction
Big Game Reaction: Michigan, Baylor, more

CFN Week 10 Rankings of All 130 Teams