Bowl projections: After a seven-spot drop in the CFP rankings, Alabama falls all the way to the Outback Bowl
Could Alabama end up in a bowl game it hasn’t appeared in since 1997?
The Crimson Tide fell to No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night. It’s the lowest ranking Alabama has ever had in any set of playoff rankings. And the Crimson Tide could end up paying a hefty bowl price as a result.
Alabama slides all the way to the Outback Bowl in our last set of bowl projections because of that (relatively) low ranking. If you’re wondering how that could happen, let’s go through the scenario.
• No. 2 LSU makes the College Football Playoff as one of the top four teams in the rankings and beats No. 4 Georgia in the SEC championship game. Utah makes the playoff as the No. 4 team after a win over Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game.
• No. 4 Georgia ends up as the No. 2-ranked SEC team and heads to the Sugar Bowl.
• No. 8 Wisconsin loses to No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game and at least one of the Badgers and the loser of the Big 12 championship game between No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 7 Baylor stays in the top 10 of the rankings and ahead of Alabama and Auburn. As a result, the team that stays ahead of the two SEC teams goes to a New Year’s Six bowl as an at-large team.
• No. 11 Auburn is the top-ranked team that doesn’t go to a New Year’s Six bowl and the Tigers stay ahead of the Crimson Tide since neither team is playing on conference championship weekend. Because Auburn is ahead of Alabama, it gets the SEC’s spot in the Citrus Bowl and bumps Alabama to the Outback Bowl.
A team gets left out
There are 79 bowl-eligible teams for 78 spots. That means a team with six wins is getting left out of a bowl game. Sorry Eastern Michigan (6-6).
It would be the second time in nine years that Eastern Michigan got six wins but failed to make a bowl game. And the Eagles even beat Illinois earlier this season.
But the bowl miss happens because EMU finished with the same overall record as Toledo, Ohio and Kent State. Both Ohio and Kent State had 5-3 records in the MAC, so they get an advantage over EMU and Toledo. And Toledo beat EMU head-to-head, so the Rockets have an edge over the Eagles.
Here’s how we think the bowls will shake out on Sunday. You’ll notice that many of the matchups below don’t align to their contracted conference affiliations. That happens, in part, because the Big 12 and SEC have fewer bowl-eligible teams than they do bowl spots.
College Football Playoff
Peach Bowl
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Utah
Fiesta Bowl
No. 2 LSU vs. No. 3 Clemson
New Year’s Six bowls
Cotton Bowl
Memphis [highest-ranked Group of Five team] vs. Baylor [at-large]
Orange Bowl
Virginia [No. 2 ACC team] vs. Florida [at-large]
Sugar Bowl
Georgia [No. 2 SEC team] vs. Oklahoma [Big 12 champion]
Rose Bowl
Oregon [No. 2 Pac-12 team] vs. Penn State [No. 2 Big Ten team]
Other bowls
Bahamas Bowl, Dec. 20
Buffalo vs. Charlotte
Frisco Bowl, Dec. 20
SMU vs. Florida Atlantic
New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 21
Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Cure Bowl, Dec. 21
Tulane vs. Georgia State
Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 21
Cincinnati vs. Central Michigan
Camellia Bowl, Dec. 21
Arkansas State vs. Ohio
Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 21
Boise State vs. Washington State
New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 21
UAB vs. Louisiana
Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 23
UCF vs. Florida State
Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24
Hawaii vs. BYU
Independence Bowl, Dec. 26
Liberty vs. Southern Miss
Quick Lane Bowl, Dec. 26
Boston College vs. Illinois
Military Bowl, Dec. 27
Temple vs. North Carolina
Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 27
Pitt vs. Michigan State
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27
Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Holiday Bowl, Dec. 27
Iowa vs. Washington
Cheez-It Bowl, Dec. 27
Air Force vs. Marshall
Camping World Bowl, Dec. 28
Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
First Responder Bowl, Dec. 30
Louisiana Tech vs. Western Michigan
Music City Bowl, Dec. 30
Louisville vs. Mississippi State
Redbox Bowl, Dec. 30
Indiana vs. Cal
Belk Bowl, Dec. 31
Virginia Tech vs. Appalachian State
Sun Bowl, Dec. 31
Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31
Iowa State vs. Kentucky
Arizona Bowl, Dec. 31
Nevada vs. Florida International
Alamo Bowl, Dec. 31
Texas vs. USC
Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1
Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1
Minnesota vs. Alabama
Birmingham Bowl, Jan. 2
Navy vs. Miami
TaxSlayer Bowl, Jan. 2
Michigan vs. Tennessee
Potato Bowl, Jan. 3
Utah State vs. Miami, Ohio
Armed Forces Bowl, Jan. 4
Wyoming vs. Toledo
Mobile Bowl, Jan. 6
Georgia Southern vs. Kent State
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Nick Bromberg is a writer for Yahoo Sports.
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