BMW Championship: Back Champ's Power at Caves

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The second playoff event of the FedEx Cup is set to begin tomorrow morning in Baltimore, Maryland. With a field of 69 players and no-cut, all are guaranteed to play 72-holes in the Charm City. The odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook have done a fantastic job getting ready for the BMW Championship, posting numerous head-to-head matchups for us to analyze.

Shouting from the mountain tops, I’ve taken the side of backing strong drivers of the golf ball above all else this week. With no potential for a Friday payday, I am hoping the consistency of long and straight drives outweighs other aspects of the game.

We’ll put the theory to the test as the players we outline below certainly fall into that bucket. Great drivers and riding a bit of form, I am hoping that will be enough to push them over the edge and get the better their counterparts.

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Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet):

Scottie Scheffler (-127) over Webb Simpson

I felt inclined to make a wager on this matchup given my opinion that Scheffler should be put on Team USA for the Ryder Cup, potentially leaving Simpson as the odd man out. This really comes down to course fit and recent form, both of which are on the side of Scheffler.

With strong finishes at larger golf courses such as Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village, the assets that he presented those weeks will likely appear this week in Maryland. Tremendous off-the-tee, it’s just been the short-game that the Texan has struggled with as of late. Seeing him work extensively on that part of the bag in the beginning of the week, I’m hoping for a slight improvement in that department.

If that proves to be the case, he should outplay Simpson. Outside the Wyndham Championship, WGC-FedEx St. Jude, and RBC Heritage, Simpson doesn’t have a top-10 finish since February. Nitpicking maybe, but Caves Valley is a far cry from a short, position-based golf course with Bermuda grass throughout. With success on only certain golf courses, I am of the opinion that this Tom Fazio design won’t be one of them.

Tony Finau (-121) over Louis Oosthuizen

For the first time in a long time, we will see how the now two-time winner on the PGA Tour reacts to a victory. Another five-year hiatus from the winner’s circle is unlikely given Finau’s raw talent, and while I don’t believe he’ll add win No. 3 this week, I think Caves Valley sets up well for him.

Plenty long off-the-tee and capable of splitting fairways with regularity, it’s a matter of seizing the moment for the FedEx Cup No. 1. Needing a big week in order to fend off pursuers, Finau would enter the TOUR Championship with a two-stroke lead if it was being played tomorrow instead of the BMW Championship. With the winner of this event most likely taking that honor from Finau, he understands that a strong week in Baltimore could set him up for success in Atlanta.

Injuries always scare me, but Oosthuizen did nothing to inspire confidence pre-tournament. While he has been fantastic this summer, never finishing outside the top-20 in a tournament, the layoff and question marks are enough for me to side with a confident Finau instead.

Cameron Champ +120 over Russell Henley

This isn’t necessarily a fade of Henley, but more so a nod to Champ’s current form. It’s been four straight outings that Champ has gained strokes on approach. After a dreadful front half of the season that saw the three-time PGA Tour winner miss four consecutive starts, Champ appears to have turned a corner.

Strong showings at the John Deere Classic and a victory at the 3M Open, have since followed it up with quality outings in limited field events. Posting +6.1 Strokes Gained: Approach at Liberty National, if Champ brings that iron prowess to Caves Valley, I am hopeful the driver will follow suit.

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