The big four of men's tennis play in separate quarterfinals on Wednesday, hoping to duplicate their French Open feat and make it a semifinal featuring the best four players in the world. Which player is most likely to ruin the party? Busted Racquet ranks each of the four quarterfinals in order of upset probability, most to least likely:
1. Rafael Nadal (1) vs. Mardy Fish (10)
Forget about Nadal's foot injury; he was vulnerable before he hurt his heel in the first set against Juan Martin Del Potro. When matches don't go the distance there's a tendency to forget how close they were to going a different way and Nadal's fourth-round bout with Del Potro is a classic example. Much like this year's French Open final, one point in the first-set tiebreak dictated how the rest of the match progressed. Nadal, like Roger Federer and Pete Sampras before him, always seems to win that point. He may need to against Fish, the only American left in either draw. The 29-year-old has yet to lose serve during Wimbledon. Not to get all Chris Evert on you* but this, coupled with the foot injury could lead to a historic upset out on Court 1.
* Have you noticed how Evert takes subtle swipes at Nadal's Wimbledon chances during ESPN's broadcast?
2. Roger Federer (3) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (12)
Tsonga hasn't had the best results against Federer (he's 1-4 lifetime). No matter. His ability to get to every shot and his endurance will give the six-time champion a solid quarterfinal test. If Tsonga can keep down the errors and doesn't panic if he gets a lead, he has a solid chance to make his first Wimbledon semifinal.
3. Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Bernard Tomic
Every future great needs the jumping-off victory like Federer had against Sampras in 2001. Can this be Tomic's time? It's unlikely. Djokovic has lost one match this year but is flying so far under the radar that he makes Federer at the French seem like he was hyped as much as Lady Gaga. The 18-year-old Aussie is the youngest player to reach the quarters at Wimbledon since Boris Becker in 1986. In order to become the youngest to reach the semis since then, it would take a minor miracle.
4. Andy Murray (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez
Deliciano played a flawless match to defeat Andy Roddick last week. In the fourth round against qualifier Lukasz Kubot things were a little less delicious for the Spaniard, as it took five sets for him to defeat the world No. 93. Though it will be a bittersweet moment for Judy Murray, expect Andy to cruise.
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