Olympic hockey playoff pairing analysis; P.U.T.I.N. model of upset probability

Things are about to get real. Single-elimination playoffs begin in Sochi on Tuesday.

To help you complete your Olympic playoff bracket, we're going to take a closer look at the four games and the countries playing in them. Remember, Sweden, USA, Canada and Finland all have byes this round.

As a special treat, we will be using the Putin Upset Trajectory Identification Notification model (or P.U.T.I.N model) to determine the likelihood of an upset happening between one of the pairing. Analysis of special P.U.T.I.N photographs will indicate the probability of an upset.

No. 8 Slovenia (1-0-0-2) vs. No. 9 Austria (1-0-0-2)

Winner plays: No. 1 Sweden

Goal differential (F/A): Slovenia 6/11, Austria 7/15

Did they meet in the qualification round? No

Austrian player to watch: Michael Grabner (New York Islanders). Grabner has five goals and one assist in three games. He leads the tournament in goal scoring.
Three famous Austrians: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Wolfgang Puck, and Christoph Waltz
Fun fact: "Vienna's Central Cemetery has over 2.5 million tombs (more than the city's present population), including those of Beethoven, Brahms, Gluck, Schubert, Schoenberg and Strauss." [I Love India]

Slovenian player to watch: Ziga Jeglic (one of three people named 'Ziga' on the team). He scored two goals against the Russians in Slovenia's first ever Olympic game.
Three Famous Slovenians: Anze Kopitar, Melania Knauss (aka the current Mrs. Trump), and Talking Tom Cat
Fun fact: "Slovenia has one of the largest brown bear populations in Europe. Between 500 and 700 bears, it is believed." []

P.U.T.I.N. - Austria, stay away from whatever Anze's having to eat...(wink wink)

No. 5 Russia (1-1-1-0) vs. No.12 Norway (0-0-0-3)
Winner plays: No. 4 Finland

Goal differential (F/A): Russia 8/5, Norway 3/12
Did they meet in the qualification round? No

Russian player to watch: All of them? Alexander Ovechkin has two points (1G, 1A) in three games. Ovi's one goal came 1:17 into the first game; his one assist was in the same game, same period but at the 3:57 mark. Does this feel like the playoffs to anyone else or is it just me?
Three famous Russians: Aleksandr Khinchin, Svetlana Krivelyova and Oxana Fedorova
Fun fact: "Women outnumber men in Russia by approximately 10 million." [Traveling East]

Norwegian player to watch: There are only four players who registered points in the qualification round: Jonas Holos (1 pt.), Per-Age Skroder (2 pts.), Patrick Thoresen (2 pts.), and Mathis Olimb (2 pts.). Notice who isn't on the list - Mats Zuccarello (New York Rangers), the only current NHL'er on the team.
Three famous Norwegians: Knute Rockne, Edvard Munch, and Tore Vikingstad
Fun fact: "Food stores cannot be open on Sundays. If you need groceries then, you have to get them at the local gas station, which are allowed to sell food on Sundays." [True Nomads]


No.6 Switzerland (2-0-0-1) vs. No. 11 Latvia (0-0-0-3)
Winner plays: No. 3 Canada

Goal differential (F/A): Switzerland 2/1, Latvia 5/10
Did they meet in the qualification round? Yes, Switzerland won 1-0. Game-winning goal was scored in the final eight seconds of the game.

Swiss player to watch: Jonas Hiller (Anaheim Ducks). Hiller has started in two games and pitched shut-outs in both of them; Latvia was one of the teams he shut-out. He has little-to-no run support; however, the Swiss may be able to squeak by without it for one more round.
Three famous Swiss: Roger Federer, Carl Jung, and Louis Chevorlet
Fun fact: "The Swiss are a nation of tenants with only one-quarter of the population owning their own home. Most homes have bunkers, a result of Cold War concerns about nuclear war." [Pure Swiss Water]

Latvian player to watch: Janis Sprutks is the points leader for the Latvians with three (2G, 1A). He plays the second highest minutes during the game; second only to 204 year-old Sandis Ozolins. One of his goals came against Henrik Lundqvist and the Swedes.
Three famous Latvians: Arturs Irbe, Mikhail Baryshnikov, and Arvids Blumentals (inspiration for Crocodile Dundee)
Fun fact: "During July 2014, Riga will host the 8th World Choir Games as it plays host to over 15,000 choristers representing over 300 choirs and over 60 countries." [Wikipedia]

P.U.T.I.N. - ...

No. 7 Czech Republic (1-0-0-2) vs. No. 10 Slovakia (1-0-0-2)
Winner plays: No. 2 USA

Goal differential (F/A): Czech Republic 6/7, Slovakia 6/11
Did they meet in the qualification round? No

Czech player to watch: Marek Zidlicky (New Jersey Devils). Centenarian Jaromir Jagr gets a majority of the attention when it comes to the Czech Republic. Zidlicky has quietly become the point leader for the Czech's with two goals and one assist. The defenseman is also logging Ryan Suter-esque average time-on-ice per game of 26:28. If it matters, he's 37 years old.
Three famous Czechs: Dominik Hasek, Franz Kafka, and Petra Nemcova
Fun fact: "Czech etiquette requires a man to precede his female companion when entering a restaurant. If they are entering other buildings, he is expected to let her in first." [Traveling East]

Slovak player to watch: Five players are tied for the lead in scoring with one point each. The biggest question for the Slovakians is who will start in net. Jaroslav Halak (St. Louis Blues) has two losses and eight of the 11 goals against. Peter Budaj (Montreal Canadiens) earned a no decision after giving up two goals on eight shots. Then there is the KHL'er, Jan Laco. He had the best outing of the three, allowing only one goal on 37 shots.
Three famous Slovaks: Stan Mikita, Ivan Reitman, and Miroslav Satan
Fun fact: "The true inspiration for Dracula resided in Slovakia’s Cachtice castle and it wasn’t a man, it was a woman!" [10-facts-about]

P.U.T.I.N. - [squish]