Andy Reid’s ’95 percent’ chance seems to have moved from Arizona to Kansas City

When it comes to CoachWatch rumors before said coaches are actually hired, it's best to heed the advice of the immortal Marvin Gaye: "Believe half of what you see, son, and none of what you hear." This is always a fluid process, and no process has been more so than the one involving former Philadelphia Eagles head coach Andy Reid. Just a day after every NFL insider seemed to have the Arizona Cardinals as Reid's next destination, it now appears as if Reid is about to become the Kansas City Chiefs' new head coach. He would replace Romeo Crennel, who was fired on Monday, just as Reid was.'s Peter King notes that the Chiefs interviewed Atlanta Falcons special teams coach Keith Armstrong on Tuesday, which would satisfy the NFL's "Rooney Rule" requirement that a minority candidate be interviewed for every head coaching position.

[Related: Could Andy Reid, Michael Vick reunite?]

The change in scenery from Arizona, where Reid was thought to be going on a "95 percent" certainty per a source who talked to ESPN's Adam Schefter, happened when Reid met with Chiefs brass on Wednesday. The meeting included Chiefs owner Clark Hunt, general manager Scott Pioli, executive Ryan Petkoff and team president Mark Donovan, who worked with Reid in Philadelphia. Reid's agent, Bob LaMonte, was also reportedly present.  Schefter reported that one source told him, "The major issues have been discussed and agreed upon," and another source said, "This is going to happen fast."

Jason La Canfora, the other guy who's been up on this story, reported via Twitter on Thursday morning that if the Chiefs hire Reid, Pioli would likely be let go. That might set Reid up to bring his own staff in from top to bottom, including former Eagles personnel man and recently fired Cleveland Browns general manager Tom Heckert. Reid has also reportedly assembled a staff that may include ex-Browns head coach Pat Shurmur, former Eagles offensive and defensive assistant Juan Castillo, and former Eagles assistant and Minnesota Vikings head coach Brad Childress.

In response to Reid's upgraded interest in the Chiefs, the Cardinals have asked permission of the Pittsburgh Steelers to interview offensive coordinator Todd Haley, who served that same function for them under recently fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt in 2007 and 2008. Haley then spent three seasons as the Chiefs' head coach before heading to the Steel City in 2012 to take over the offense that Bruce Arians used to run. Haley and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have not always seen eye-to-eye, and it's not a certainty that he'd survive another down season.

Whether Reid chooses the Cardinals or Chiefs, his main priority will be to bolster the quarterback position. Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, who Pioli signed to a six-year, $63 million contract in 2009, has underperformed and might not be back in 2013. The Chiefs have the first overall pick in the 2013 draft, and while the upcoming quarterback class doesn't seem to have anyone worthy of that slot, having the first selection in the second round of the same draft presents the Chiefs with an interesting host of options at the position. The Chiefs also have a lot of talent on defense, and a superb running back in Jamaal Charles.

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