Bowl Projections: Post-Week 12 Edition

Christopher Wilson

Our title game match up remains the same, but Stanford’s loss at USC means the Cardinal are out of the BCS picture, the Wisconsin Badgers are in and there are repercussions down the line for the rest of the PAC12 and Big Ten. Without further ado.

(A reminder we are presuming the favorites win the remainder of their games for these projections. That is 100% definitely not going to happen, but it's the methodology we're going to use.)

BCS Title Game (January 6): Alabama vs. Florida State

Both teams took care of business Saturday, with Florida State’s road to Pasadena looking considerably easier than Alabama’s, as the Tide still have to deal with the Iron Bowl and either Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC Championship game. If one of these teams falter, Baylor or Ohio State would slide in.

Rose Bowl (January 1): Ohio State vs. Oregon

The Buckeyes are projected to take one slot as Big Ten champion (you could also see Michigan State here should the Spartans pull the upset in the conference title game), and they’ll likely face Oregon, given new life in the PAC12 race with Stanford’s second league loss. This will be a rematch of the 2010 Rose.

Orange Bowl (January 3): Clemson vs. Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl (January 2): Auburn vs. Central Florida

The Sugar Bowl gets to replace No. 1 Alabama first, and does so by taking Auburn, who will be 10-2 if we presume a loss to Bama. The Orange Bowl then gets to replace Florida State, and does so by taking Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins and Clemson. The Orange then has the first at-large pick and takes Wisconsin, who will probably be 10-2 with their two losses being the weird game down at Arizona State and a competitive loss in Columbus.

(There are plenty of other options for the Orange here, including the Michigan State/Ohio State loser, Louisville or the Oklahoma State/Baylor loser.)

The Sugar then has to choose between American Conference champ Central Florida and Mountain West champ Fresno State. They go with the closer team geographically and bring George O’Leary’s Knights in to face the Tigers.

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Baylor vs. Fresno State

Baylor slides in here as Big 12 champion, although that honor could still go to Oklahoma State if the Pokes win Saturday. In this scenario the Bears face Fresno State, who are in contention for an automatic BCS bid (due to being a conference champ that finished in the top 16 and ahead of another BCS conference champ). Should Fresno State fall, Northern Illinois could slide in here as long as the Huskies’ record stays unmarred.

And here are the rest of the bowls. A * denotes a team filling in for another conference that couldn’t fulfill all of its postseason obligations:
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM – December 21
Pac-12 No. 7 vs. MW No. 4 or 5

Arizona vs. Colorado State

Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 21
MW No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5

Boise State vs. UCLA

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise, ID – December 21
MAC No. 3 vs. MW No. 6

Bowling Green vs. UNLV

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA – December 21
C-USA No. 6 vs. Sun Belt No. 1

Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St Petersburg
St Petersburg, FL – December 23
C-USA No. 4 vs. AAC No. 6

Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo*

Sheraton Hawai`i Bowl
Honolulu, HI – December 24
C-USA No. 2 vs. MW No. 5

North Texas vs. San Jose State

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit, MI – December 26
MAC No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 8

Northern Illinois vs. Syracuse*

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA – December 26
Army/MAC vs. MW No. 2

Buffalo vs. San Diego State

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Annapolis, MD – December 27
C-USA No. 5 vs. ACC No. 8

Marshall vs. Maryland

Texas Bowl
Houston, TX – December 27
Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6

Iowa vs. Kansas State

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, CA – December 27
BYU vs. Pac-12 No. 6

BYU vs. Washington

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, NY – December 28
AAC No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7

Rutgers vs. Notre Dame*

Belk Bowl
Charlotte, NC – December 28
AAC No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5

Houston vs. Miami (FL)

Russell Athletic Bowl
Orlando, FL – December 28
ACC No. 3 vs. AAC No. 2

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Tempe, AZ – December 28
Big Ten No. 4 of 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4

Michigan vs. Texas

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Ft Worth, TX – December 30
MWC No. 3 vs. C-USA No.3/Navy

Utah State vs. Navy

Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN – December 30
SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No. 6

Georgia vs. North Carolina

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX – December 30
Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3

Stanford vs. Oklahoma

Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA – December 30
Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3

Texas Tech vs. USC

AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Shreveport, LA – December 31
ACC No. 7 vs. SEC No. 10

Boston College vs. Louisiana-Monroe*

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX – December 31st
ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4

Virginia Tech vs. Arizona State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN – December 31
C-USA No. 1 or American vs. SEC No. 8 or 9

East Carolina vs. Tennessee

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA – December 31
ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5

Duke vs. Missouri Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. SEC No. 6

Minnesota vs. Ole Miss

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX – January 1
Big Ten No. 7 vs C-USA

UTSA* vs. Rice

Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2

Michigan State vs. Texas A&M

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3

Nebraska vs. LSU

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX – January 3
Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 or 4

Oklahoma State vs. South Carolina

BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala – January 4
SEC No. 8 or 9 vs. American No. 5

Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati

GoDaddy Bowl
Mobile, AL – January 5
Sun Belt No. 2 vs. MAC No. 2

Arkansas State vs. Ball State


Teams currently not bowl eligible we’re projecting to get six wins: Colorado State, Louisiana-Monroe, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, San Jose State, Syracuse, Tennessee (must beat Vandy at home Saturday), Washington State (would certainly help to beat Utah at home Saturday).

Notables teams currently not eligible we’re projecting to fall short of six wins: Florida, Indiana, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Utah.