Bowl Projections: Post-Week 11 Edition

Major upset number one altered the top of the polls and set up a new title game pairing, while at the bottom of the standings it’s looking like Florida’s two-decade streak of bowl appearances is coming to an end. Let’s take a look at the revised projections following week eleven.

(For the sake of this exercise, we’re assuming all favorites will win. That will obviously not happen, but it’s better than not having a methodology.)

BCS Title Game (January 6): Alabama vs. Florida State

Down goes Oregon and up comes Florida State. Alabama also handled their test against LSU quite well. Florida State won’t be less than a two-touchdown favorite in any remaining game, while Alabama actually still has two tricky roadblocks remaining (at Auburn, the SEC title game), although they’ll be favorites in both. Barring an upset, it’ll be Famous Jameis trying to deny Nick Saban his third consecutive title.

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Rose Bowl (January 1): Ohio State vs. Stanford

Ohio State is locked in as Big Ten champions, while Stanford’s win over Oregon gives them pole position in the PAC12 North and makes them a favorite for the conference title and autobid to Pasadena. A nice, old-school Big Ten/PAC12 Rose Bowl to close out the BCS Era.

Orange Bowl (January 3): Oregon vs. Clemson

Sugar Bowl (January 2): Auburn vs. Central Florida

The Sugar Bowl gets to replace Alabama first, and does so by taking Auburn, who will be 10-2 at worst if they can take care of Georgia at home Saturday before the Iron Bowl. The Orange Bowl then gets to replace Florida State, and does so by happily taking Oregon, sending the Ducks to Miami for the postseason for the first time in school history.

The Orange then has the first at-large pick and takes Clemson, matching up the Tajh Boyd/Sammy Watkins show against Marcus Mariota and friends. The Sugar then has to choose between American Conference champ Central Florida and Mountain West champ Fresno State. They go with the closer team geographically and bring George O’Leary’s Knights in to face the Tigers.


Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Baylor vs. Fresno State

Baylor slides in here as Big 12 champion, although that honor could still go to Oklahoma State or Texas. In this scenario the Bears face Fresno State, who survived a potentially perilous road trip to Wyoming Saturday to stay in contention for an automatic BCS bid (due to being a conference champ that finished in the top 16 and ahead of another BCS conference champ). Should Fresno State fall, Northern Illinois could slide in here as long as the Huskies’ record stays unmarred.

And here are the rest of the bowls. A * denotes a team filling in for another conference that couldn’t fulfill all of its postseason obligations:
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM – December 21
Pac-12 No. 7 vs. MW No. 4 or 5

Arizona vs. Colorado State


Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV - December 21
MW No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5

Boise State vs. USC

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Boise, ID – December 21
MAC No. 3 vs. MW No. 6

Buffalo vs. Wyoming

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA – December 21
C-USA No. 6 vs. Sun Belt No. 1

Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St Petersburg
St Petersburg, FL – December 23
C-USA No. 4 vs. AAC No. 6

Rice vs. Boston College*

Sheraton Hawai`i Bowl
Honolulu, HI – December 24
C-USA No. 2 vs. MW No. 5

East Carolina vs. San Jose State

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Detroit, MI – December 26
MAC No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 8

Northern Illinois vs. Notre Dame*


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA – December 26
Army/MAC vs. MW No. 2

Bowling Green vs. San Diego State

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman
Annapolis, MD – December 27
C-USA No. 5 vs. ACC No. 8

Marshall vs. Maryland

Texas Bowl
Houston, TX – December 27
Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6

Michigan vs. Kansas State

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
San Francisco, CA – December 27
BYU vs. Pac-12 No. 6

BYU vs. Oregon State

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, NY – December 28
AAC No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7

Rutgers vs. West Virginia

Belk Bowl
Charlotte, NC – December 28
AAC No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5

Houston vs. Georgia Tech


Russell Athletic Bowl
Orlando, FL – December 28
ACC No. 3 vs. AAC No. 2

Miami (FL) vs. Louisville

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
Tempe, AZ – December 28
Big Ten No. 4 of 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4

Nebraska vs. Oklahoma

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Ft Worth, TX – December 30
MWC No. 3 vs. C-USA No.3/Navy

Utah State vs. Navy

Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN – December 30
SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No. 6

Ole Miss vs. North Carolina

Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX – December 30
Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3

Arizona State vs. Oklahoma State

Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA – December 30
Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3

Texas Tech vs. UCLA


AdvoCare V100 Bowl
Shreveport, LA – December 31
ACC No. 7 vs. SEC No. 10

Syracuse vs. Louisiana-Monroe*

Hyundai Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX – December 31st
ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4

Duke vs. Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN – December 31
C-USA No. 1 or American vs. SEC No. 8 or 9

North Texas vs. Tennessee

Chick-fil-A Bowl
Atlanta, GA – December 31
ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. SEC No. 6

Minnesota vs. Missouri

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX – January 1
Big Ten No. 7 vs C-USA

Iowa vs. Middle Tennessee


Capital One Bowl
Orlando, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2

Michigan State vs. South Carolina

Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL – January 1
Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3

Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M

AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX – January 3
Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 or 4

Texas vs. LSU

BBVA Compass Bowl
Birmingham, Ala – January 4
SEC No. 8 or 9 vs. American No. 5

Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati

GoDaddy Bowl
Mobile, AL – January 5
Sun Belt No. 2 vs. MAC No. 2

Western Kentucky vs. Ball State


Teams currently not bowl eligible we’re projecting to get six wins: Boston College, Colorado State, Kansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, Navy, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, San Diego State, San Jose State, Syracuse, Tennessee, Wyoming, Vanderbilt.

Notables teams currently not eligible we’re projecting to fall short of six wins: Florida, Indiana, Mississippi State, Northwestern, TCU, Utah, Washington State