Teams that have experienced a status change since yesterday are highlighted in yellow:
Need Binoculars to See the Bubble:
Houston, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Temple, Creighton, Stephen F. Austin, Houston, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State
Bad Side of the Bubble:
Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Western Kentucky, UAB, Villanova, Oregon, Florida, Ohio State, Dayton
Good Side of the Bubble (9):
Illinois State, UMass, Kentucky, Southern Illinois, Syracuse, Baylor, New Mexico, Arizona State, St. Joe's
Most Likely In (15):
Gonzaga, Pitt, West Virginia, Clemson, Miami (FL), USC, Arizona, Arkansas, BYU, UNLV, Saint Mary's, Kansas State, Oklahoma, South Alabama, Texas A&M
In There Like Swimwear (23):
UNC, Duke, Georgetown, Memphis, UConn, Notre Dame, Louisville, Marquette, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, Drake, Texas, Kansas, Stanford, Butler, UCLA, Washington State, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Xavier.
One-bid Conference Champs (18):
Kent State (MAC), Davidson (SoCon), VCU (Colonial), UMBC (America East), Oral Roberts (Summitt), Cornell (Ivy), Boise State (WAC), Siena (MAAC), CS Northridge (Big West), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Robert Morris (Northeast), Austin Peay (OVC), Portland State (Big Sky), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC), Lamar (Southland), American (Patriot).
St. Joe's & Dayton: The win over Xavier last night gave St. Joe's a very recent top-10 win, which is more than any other bad side of the bubble team can say.
So I moved them into the tournament at the expense of Dayton, but not without some hesitation. Their RPI of 38 is nice, but they're under .500 in the conference (7-8, while St. Joe's is 9-6), and neither of Dayton's big wins came after January 2nd.
Fortunately for everyone, St. Joe's and Dayton play on Saturday, and they'll have a chance to sort all of this business out on the court.
Arizona State: I downgraded them from "Likely In" to the "Good Side of the Bubble." I still like their chances, though. Their RPI is an unsightly 68, but they've got wins over Xavier, Arizona (twice), Stanford, and USC. No other bubble team has a list of wins that impressive, and I think that trumps any of their miserable losses (Illinois, Washington, Nebraska).
Oregon: Still on the "Bad Side of the Bubble," but they've moved out of a cardboard refrigerator box and into a housing project. I think they're close. They've got a big game Saturday against Arizona.