Week 16 Lames: Cold Brees will blow in Carolina

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Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes are destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 16 Lames in the comments section below.

Drew Brees, NO, QB (83-percent started)
Matchup: at Car
To the cursory viewer, Brees is the object of fantasy perfection. After all, his superficial numbers are downright gaudy – 4,500 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, 11 mutli-TD games, 10 games of 300-plus yards. However, further investigation reveals a passer plagued by split-brain syndrome. More road weakling than warrior, he's failed to eclipse 20-plus fantasy points in five of seven games away from the Superdome, several of those against meek competition (e.g. TB, NE, Chi, Atl, and StL). For Brees, home is not only where the heart is, it's the only place where his QB1 persona lives. His matchup at Carolina, similar to his forgettable trip to Seattle (147-1-0) three weeks ago, should have owners thinking twice. In a virtual game where guarantees rarely exist, fanatics with trophies at stake are encouraged to weigh alternatives. Brees lit up the Panthers two weeks ago in the Crescent City completing 71.4-percent of his passes for 313 yards and four scores, the only multi-TD passer the Panthers have allowed this season. However, Captain Munnerlyn and company are sure to return the favor. On the year, they've surrendered just 6.89 yards per attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Whether it's the hotel beds, time-zone changes or unruly fans, something has cooled Brees on the road (11:7 TD:INT split in 7 games). In a game with enormous playoff implications, expect that trend to continue. With all the marbles on the line, Jay Cutler (at Phi), Kirk Cousins (vs. Dal) and Andy Dalton (vs. Min) are stronger recommendations.

Fearless Forecast: 281 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 2 interceptions, 4 rushing yards, 16.4 fantasy points

Adrian Peterson, Min, RB (74-percent started)
Matchup: at Cin
Don't trust the Purple Hey-Zeus? This close to his birthday? Blasphemy! That's the reaction many will have seeing Peterson on this list, but facing a difficult matchup fresh only two weeks removed from suffering a midfoot sprain shouldn't have owners taking him for face value. Yes, it's true the bionic man's 75-percent is better than other RBs' 100-percent, but one has to be concerned about his ability to tote his usual 20-25 carry workload. He has practiced lightly this week and Leslie Frazier said Monday he "anticipates" AP will be in uniform Sunday, however, there is no guarantee he will be driven into the ground if active. Even if he did log roughly 15-20 touches, Peterson may only inflict minimal damage. Cincinnati, desperate to secure a playoff berth, will do everything in its power to contain Minnesota's strength, which may not take much. The Bengals, with or without Geno Atkins, have defended the run stiffly this season. Matt Forte, Jonathan Franklin and Le'Veon Bell are the only RBs to cross the chalk on the ground against them. In total, only five rushers have scored double-digit fantasy points versus Cincy. Overall, Marvin Lewis' club has yielded a mere 3.74 yards per carry and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Peterson backers fortunate enough to survive his Round 1 derailment at Baltimore (7-13-0, 1-4-0), may not be so lucky this time around. In what could be a one-sided affair, game-flow could treat him unkindly.

Fearless Forecast: 16 carries, 66 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 8 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.9 fantasy points

Andre Brown, NYG, RB (63-percent)
Matchup: at Det
What can Brown do for you? Win you a title? Nope. Get injured? Quite possibly. Whizz in your eggnog? Most definitely. Due to Eli Manning's ongoing problem hitting the opposition square in the chest, Brown found no cracks to fit through last week against Seattle. Entering the week, he averaged just over 100 total yards per game in his previous five starts, falling into the end-zone three times. But against overloaded Seahawks boxes, he struggled mightily, combining for 26 yards on 15 touches. Detroit, unfortunately, won't offer much of a breather. After getting trampled by LeSean McCoy in the Blizzard Bowl, the Lions returned to their stalwart ways last Monday against the Ravens, bottling up Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. The puke-worthy pair, as they've done throughout the season, ran into one brick wall after another tallying 77 yards on 19 carries. Take out the Philly game and Detroit has crushed the opposition between the hashmarks, surrendering just 3.39 yards per carry and 99.8 total yards per game to RBs. With the odds stacked against him, look elsewhere.

Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 57 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.9 fantasy points

Andre Johnson, Hou, WR (98-percent)
Matchup: vs. Den
It's stunning how sorrowful the Texans seasons has been. Widely tabbed by pundits as the primary competitor to New England and Denver in August, their year turned south in a hurry. Catastrophic injuries to star talent (e.g. Arian Foster and Owen Daniels), frightening coaching staff health scares and lopsided losses – they've undoubtedly run the gamut of misfortune. However, despite the upheaval, Johnson, ever the reliable receiver, has contributed yet another 1,000-yard campaign, the seventh of his career. On paper, the multi-time All-Pro has a fantastic matchup. Denver has yielded 14 double-digit fantasy scorers in 14 games this year. Add that to the strong chance Houston will be in catch-up mode starting the second quarter and he's sure to emerge a Garbage Time All-Star. But don't necessarily buy that logic hook, line and sinker. With Case Keenum cooked, Matt Schaub reenters the equation, an unwanted prospect. Over Mr. Pick Six's past 110 attempts, he's completed just 57.2 percent. Couple that with corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's suffocating ways (No. 5 in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus), and underachievement is entirely possible. In a game that could snowball quickly, don't assume Johnson will stuff your stocking with stats.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 68 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.5 fantasy points

Tony Gonzalez, Atl, TE (74-percent)
Matchup: at SF
Events have gone awry for the future Hall of Famer in his swan song. Catastrophic injuries to key offensive players, most notably Julio Jones, matched with a forgiving defense quickly transformed the Falcons from Super Bowl contender to pretender. Still, posting top-seven numbers at his position, the tight end's production has slipped little. However, in the final regular season game at the 'Stick, the football ghosts of Ronnie Lott, Bill Romanowski and Ken Norton will combine forces with current great Patrick Willis to contain Gonzo. San Fran has unhinged a bit against TEs of late. Tim Wright and Luke Wilson each contributed top-10 lines against it. But, overall, the Niners have done an excellent job containing oversized targets. On the year, they've given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position, including just six catches and 41 yards to pacesetter Jimmy Graham. Gonzo is certain to attract his usual 6-8 targets, but a mediocre effort is sure to follow.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.8 fantasy points



Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Lames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Wednesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 47-57

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