Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders this week.
Chris Ogbonnaya, slated for a healthy workload with Willis McGahee sidelined and gifted an incredible matchup, total yards against Chicago's atrocious run D 99.5
Scott – OVER, OVER, and OVER. The Chicago rushing defense will cure what ails you. It cured Ray Rice, didn't it? Get Ogie Oglethorpe in your lineup.
Andy – OK, we've finally found the place where I'll draw the line at playing the matchup against Chicago. UNDER. Ogbonnaya is not exactly the most dynamic back, and he's not guaranteed a full workload. Surely the streak of 100-yard rushers has to end at some point, yeah?
Brad – OVER. A 150-year-old Galapagos tortoise could crawl its way to 100 rushing yards against the historically bad Bears run D. Ogbonnaya isn't the sexiest player, but neither was Benny Cunningham. On roughly 15-18 touches, he should eclipse this number with relative ease.
Down Gronk, Tom Brady, who registered a disgusting 116-1-1 line in his first matchup versus Miami, passing yards in the rematch 249.5
Andy – OVER. The Pats are a tough team to read these days, but I think they'll put this game in Brady's hands. On volume, he'll top 250.
Brad – UNDER. The Miami secondary might be the best kept secret in the league. Brent Grimes and company have surrendered only 6.97 passing yards per attempt. Gut says a Stevan Ridley revival could occur, relegating Brady to more of a managerial role.
Brandon – UNDER. As mentioned, Miami had Brady's number in the first meeting, and that was with Gronk in tow.
Larry Fitzgerald, facing a Titans secondary that up until last week's manhandling by the Broncos had allowed just three wide receiver scores on the year, TDs against Tennessee .5
Brad – UNDER. Until last week's torching in Denver, the Titans had allowed exactly two touchdowns to wide receivers. Fitz should still pay dividends in PPR, but finding the end-zone will be tough against Verner/McCourty.
Brandon – OVER. Look, the Titans are a good pass defense, but let's not immortalize them. They've faced a plethora of anemic passing offenses (NYJ, JAC, SF, KC, OAK, STL ...). In fact, they've faced only two WR units that rank inside the top 14 in fantasy scoring while, on the flip side, they've played eight games against teams that rank 20th or worse in WR scoring. Fitzgerald is on a TD roll, and Michael Floyd and Rob Housler are less than 100 percent. When Arizona gets down near the goal line, Fitzgerlad is going to get his looks from Carson Palmer, and I think it'll work out with at least a TD for Fitz.
Dalton – UNDER. Fitz does have five TD catches over the past four games, but as mentioned, Tennessee has been extremely stingy against wide receivers this year, allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts even after last week's game against Denver. Although though to be fair, both Michael Floyd and Rob Housler are banged up. This is a close one.
Andre Brown, who's averaged 100.8 total yards per game in five starts, total yards against stingy Seattle 99.5
Brandon – OVER. I see the Giants looking to utilize Brown heavily against a team that is coming off a 15-round heavyweight battle with San Francisco and now has to travel across country for an early-Sunday start time. Mentally, the Seahawks could very well be vulnerable to a relentless ground pounding from Brown. We've seen grinders like Zac Stacy and Frank Gore have success against Seattle, and I think Brown will fall right in line with those backs.
Dalton – UNDER. I'm a fan of Brown, but I expect the Giants to be playing mostly from behind, limiting their rushing attempts. New York's disastrous passing attack won't help, and the Seahawks should be focused after losing in San Francisco last week.
Scott – UNDER, though I still think Brown has a 50-50 chance at a short touchdown. I'm washing my hands of all things Big Blue this week.
Rashad Jennings, expected to be active and shoulder a full compliment of touches, total yards at home against rival KC 99.5
Dalton – OVER. He should go back to being treated as a true workhorse, and the Chiefs have actually allowed 4.5 YPC this season. Jennings will likely be the centerpiece of Oakland's offense in Week 15.
Scott – OVER, hoping the Raiders have been honest about expected workload. Jennings can play on all three downs and he picks up a lot of work in the short passing game; assuming he's healthy, there's a very safe floor here.
Andy – OVER. KC's defense hasn't been impenetrable for opposing RBs (4.6 YPC), and Jennings should see plenty of touches, regardless of game-flow.
Promoted off the practice squad just two weeks ago, Da'Rick Rogers, off a mesmerizing 6-107-2 game, receiving yards against Houston 74.5
Scott – OVER. Tape validated and spreadsheet heroic, I'm a full believer in Rogers. More than that, I am a full disbeliever in all things Heyward-Bey.
Andy – OVER. This kid is really, really good. I'm still surprised he didn't stick with Buffalo. I'm not sure he wasn't the most talented receiver on the roster.
Brad – OVER. Pound-for-pound, Rogers is the most talented receiver currently on the Colts roster. He has the size, speed and athletic ability to excel at a high level, provided he stays out of trouble. With Houston already thinking about tee times, he sails past the proposed number for the second-straight week.
Kirk Cousins, announced as the starter rest of season by the Redskins Wednesday, passing yards in the Georgia Dome (at Atl) 299.5
Andy – UNDER. It's the fantasy playoffs, you guys. A must-win week. Don't get cute. At least part of the problem for RG3 this year is that his receivers are actually kinda lousy, but no one wants to discuss the supporting cast.
Brad – OVER. Believe in Cousins. He's a strong-armed pocket passer who reminds me a lot of Nick Foles. Atlanta has defended the pass terribly, giving up 8.1 yards per attempt. Toss in Washington's horrendous defense, and the ex-Spartan creeps over 300.
Brandon – UNDER. Atlanta allows just over 270 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. And, though I like Cousins, I don't like the makeup of his receiving corps at the moment, especially with TE Jordan Reed out for the season. Pierre Garcon is the only weapon for Cousins that can take advantage of single coverage. If the Falcons roll a safety over Garcon all day, Cousins will have very little to work with.
Zac Stacy, scheduled to go toe-to-toe against a beatable Saints run D, total Week 15 yards 99.5
Brad – UNDER. Admittedly this will be extremely close, but odds are fairly strong the Rams will play from behind, limiting the Zac Attack's opportunities. Ballpark: he finishes in the 90-95 range with a garbage-time touchdown.
Brandon – OVER. When you face Drew Brees, you do what you can to limit his time on the field. For the Rams, that should mean a steady diet of carries for Stacy. As mentioned, the Saints are a beatable run defense, allowing the sixth-highest YPC mark (4.4) to opposing RBs. With an expected carry load in the mid-20s neighborhood, I think Stacy will toppple this O/U number.
Dalton – UNDER. I'd rather bet on Stacy scoring. The Rams will likely be playing mostly from behind, and while Stacy has clearly shown flashes of someone who could eventually be a star, the rookie back has averaged just 64.5 yards from scrimmage over his past four games.
Cordarelle Patterson, finally tapping into his mammoth potential and with Matt Cassel under center, combined rushing/receiving yards versus Philly 99.5
Brandon – OVER. He had 141 yards last week and, with no Adrian Peterson and facing the most generous fantasy defense to opposing wideouts, Patterson should be a point of emphasis for the Vikings.
Dalton – UNDER. I guess I'm a downer this week, picking all but one "unders," but Patterson hadn't reached 55 yards in a game this season before last week, when his 79-yard late TD catch was aided by snowy conditions. He does face a Philly secondary that's allowed the most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year, but I can't see betting on the over here.
Scott – OVER. It took a while, but the Vikings are finally making Patterson the centerpiece of their downfield offense (with some creative runs mixed in). I'm so impressed, I'm actually starting Matt Cassel off the street as a QB2 in one playoff game.
TE tussle. Pick one: Dennis Pitta (at Det), Delanie Walker (vs. Ari), Rob Housler (at Ten), Coby Fleener (vs. Hou) or Charles Clay (vs. NE)
Dalton – WALKER. To me this comes down to Walker versus Pitta, with Arizona's inability to cover the tight end the tiebreaker. The Cardinals have yielded both the most yards (1,003) and touchdowns (13) to opposing TEs this year, and Walker was playing well before missing time recently.
Scott – Say this for the Gronkowski owners (and that news absolutely sucked), at least the market is partially breaking the fall. There's no full replacement of Gronk, of course, but these are solid options. I'll take WALKER for the Arizona giveaway, but I have all the non-Houslers ranked aggressively here.
Andy – PITTA. You know what you're getting here, and his next two games could be shootouts
Brad – WALKER. Tight ends are performing, get this, 81.2-percent above the league average against 'Zona. With the Cards down Tyrann Mathieu, Walker, who was targeted 27 times by Ryan Fitzpatrick Weeks 10-12, is in a great position to finish well-inside the TE top-five.
Brandon – CLAY. It's hard to go against Clay right now as he's averaged 10 targets, seven receptions, 88.5 yards and 1.0 TDs in his past two games. And the matchup against a Pats defense allowing the 12th-most fantasy PPG to the TE position isn't scary.
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