Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 10.
Colin Kaepernick, who ranks outside the QB1 class in 12-team leagues, combined yards on the road in ‘Nawlins 299.5.
Dalton – OVER. He’s averaged 278.8 yards from scrimmage this season, and Sunday’s game could easily turn into a shootout. Kaepernick has disappointed this year with so many more weapons on SF’s offense, but he’s on pace to finish with career highs in TD passes (24), completion percentage (64.2) and rushing yards per game (34.3), and the 49ers offensive line has been a disaster.
Scott – OVER. Here's hoping the gravity of the situation will bring out the best in Jim Harbaugh's playbook. I also expect more work on the move from Kaepernick.
Brad – UNDER. Everyone anticipates a shootout to unfold in the Superdome, but I'm feeling a runaway victory for the Saints. After being sacked 14 times over the past two weeks, you know Rob Ryan will turn up the heat on Kap. If the offensive line is again ghost-like, achieving the proposed total would be a tall task.
The ultimate hybrid option, Denard Robinson, who’s eclipsed the century mark in yardage three straight weeks, total yards versus Dallas in the Queen’s backyard 99.5.
Andy – OVER. Dallas' defense might be better than we'd all forecasted, but it's nothing for fantasy owners to fear. The Cowboys are allowing 4.6 YPC and 113.2 rushing yards per game. Robinson has been stellar, eclipsing over 100 total yards in each of the past three weeks, consistently breaking off big gains.
Brandon – OVER. I'm on the bandwagon. What he's done to dig the Jaguars' running game out of such a massively deep hole has been nothing short of amazing - I certainly didn't think it could be done. With Dallas allowing 5.0 YPC to the RB position, and Robinson showing that he can top this mark against better competition (Miami last week), I'm not betting against him.
Dalton – OVER. This is a really difficult task to accomplish four weeks in a row, but the first three are already in the bag, and Robinson has been highly impressive since taking over as Jacksonville’s lead back. Moreover, Dallas has allowed 4.6 YPC this season, as only five teams have been worse.
Martavis ‘The Machine’ Bryant has five touchdowns in his first three career games, tying Eric Green for the all-time record in the category. End zone splashes against the hapless Jets .5.
Brandon – OVER. He and Ben will cool off eventually, but you can't expect it to happen against the Jets. New York has allowed an insane 24 touchdown passes so far this season. Bryant should feast again, serving as an uncoverable red-zone weapon.
Dalton – UNDER. This just seems so obvious he’ll hit pay dirt after being on such a TD tear and now facing an inept Jets secondary that's allowed an atrocious 24:1 TD:INT ratio. In fact, no other team has yielded more than 18 scores through the air this year. But I have to go contrarian here (and it’s not like Bryant has been a target monster).
Brad – OVER. Jets DBs Darrin Walls and Antonio Allen are a giving pair. Combined they've allowed 14.9 yards per catch, burnt often by the opposition. Given Bryant's incredible speed/size offerings, he's a matchup nightmare who should extend his nearly unprecedented TD streak.
Dalton – OVER. He saw 20 touches last week and gets a Falcons defense that's allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Sims hasn’t played a single snap this year, while Rainey has been really good (when not fumbling) and is a terrific receiver.
Andy – I'll go OVER, but not by a ton. To me, 16-18 touches seems like the right number, with Sims seeing 6-10. Sims was a high-volume receiver as a collegiate player, and he profiles as a productive committee member at worst. He'll certainly poach a few touches, but Rainey deserves the lead role for now.
Scott – OVER. I'm not buying any of the Sims hype until he plays an NFL snap. I know it's tricky to trust Tampa Bay to do logical things, but Rainey's been darn good when given the chance. Even in Rainey's fumble-gate against Atlanta the previous meeting, he finished with a strong line.
Showing his age a bit over the past several weeks, Steve Smith receiving yards on the road in Tennessee 74.5.
Andy – OVER. I'm not sure he's shown his age, exactly. It was never reasonable to expect him to maintain the early pace. Smith is still seeing 8-9 targets per game, which makes him a great bet for 75-plus yards. We're not asking him to binge here, but simply to have a respectable day.
Scott – Lean OVER, as the Titans are behind the league average (slightly) in YPA allowed. The Ravens try a few deep shots every week to Smith, and I don't see a plus corner on the Tennessee roster.
Dalton – UNDER. He’s averaged 56.4 receiving yards over the past five games and is facing a Titans team that's been much more susceptible against the run than the pass. Baltimore is double-digit favorites and shouldn’t have to rely on the pass heavily Sunday.
Julius Thomas, no longer the top tight end in per game average after consecutive underwhelming efforts, receptions in Oakland 3.5.
Brad – UNDER. Thomas has slowed significantly of late. He's seen just eight targets and totaled four receptions the past two games. Peyton should chuck it some 35-40 times, but look for him to lock in on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Plus, in what could be a lopsided affair, Ronnie Hillman will run ... a lot.
Andy – OVER. And even if he snags just three balls, there's a decent chance that at least two will result in touchdowns. If you guys are at all worried about Thomas, please send him my way.
Brandon – OVER. The Raiders are only allowing 3.75 receptions to the TE position, but they haven't exactly faced a team that can throw as many receiving weapons at them like Denver can. Thomas has caught just two passes in each of his past two games, but he's had three or more in his previous 23 contests, so I'm not ready to paint him out of this offensive mix just yet.
Ben Roethlisberger, whizzing fire over the past two weeks tossing an NFL 12 touchdowns, TD tosses against the Jets 3.5.
Brandon – UNDER. The matchup against a defense that has yielded the most TD passes in the league this year is almost too good to be true for a QB coming off back-to-back TD pass six-packs. But Big Ben has been so much better at home than on the road (just 4 TD passes in for games). I think he delivers three scoring strikes, but four is just too rich.
Dalton – UNDER. He’s the first player to throw six touchdowns in back-to-back games and faces a Jets defense allowing an NFL-worst 112.8 QB Rating that’s higher than every quarterback in the league not named Aaron Rodgers. But Roethlisberger is on the road, and predicting four TD passes for anyone is pretty tough.
Brad – OVER. Every time I think Big Ben cools (e.g. last week versus Baltimore) he stokes the fire higher. The Jets secondary is woefully bad. I bet he adds another four more scores on his unparalleled three week streak.
Mark Ingram, who’s rolled up 256 yards on an absurd 56 touches over the past two weeks, combined yards against the Niners 99.5.
Dalton – UNDER. There’s no question Ingram is slimmer and looks much better this season, but it took 30 carries for him to reach 100 rushing yards last week against a Panthers defense that has allowed an NFL-high 4.8 YPC. Meanwhile, San Francisco has ceded just 3.9 YPC and has given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs this season.
Brad – OVER. Ingram has looked like an incensed rhino over the past couple weeks. He's shown the burst and brawn often not seen since his Alabama days. On paper, the Niners are an unfriendly foe, giving up under 4.0 yards per carry to RBs. However, if Patrick Willis is unavailable, a strong possibility, San Fran gets gashed.
Scott – OVER. You always like the Saints more at home, and as pass-happy as Sean Peyton generally is, he actually loves running the ball late to put a game away. Ingram's career has done a 180 in the last couple of years (he was actually a monster in limited reps last season).
The BOLD and the disputable. What player under 50-percent owned will be a rest-of-season difference maker?
Brad – CARLOS HYDE. The Niners offensive line has problems, but in light of Frank Gore's recent string of underwhelming performances (2.74 ypc last three), it's time for the rookie to take on an expanded role. Assuming that occurs, Hyde could springboard owners into Round 2 after thrashing the Raiders in Week 14.
Scott – JORDAN MATTHEWS is finally starting to get increased run in Philly, and he has some JV rapport built up with new quarterback Mark Sanchez. I'm excited to see what they can do Monday, and the rest of the season.
Brandon – KYLE RUDOLPH. Over the past couple weeks, we've seen Teddy bridgewater target backup tight end Chase Ford a combined 13 times, resulting in 11 catches, 127 yards and a TD. So, clearly, the rookie has shown a liking for the TE position. That should start paying immediate dividends for the Red-Zone Reindeer upon his return from hernia surgery (expected in Week 11).
Top-Five Buys. Your best bets (versus the spread or over/unders) for Week 10.
Brandon – 1) TEN/BAL UNDER 44. 2) BUF (+1.5) vs KC 3) DEN (-11) at Oak 4) SEA (-9) vs NYG 5) GB (-7) vs Chi
Dalton – 1) S.F. (+5) at N.O. 2) ATL (-2.5) at T.B. 3) DEN (-11) at Oak 4) NYG (+9) at Sea 5) NYJ (+4.5) vs. Pit
Scott – 1) Falcons -2.5, 2) Bills +1.5, 3) Saints-Niners under 49, 4) Pokes-Jags under 45.5, 5) Ravens -10.
Brad – 1) NO (-5) vs. SF, 2) Buf (+2) vs. KC, 3) CHI/GB UNDER 53.5, 4) Ari (-6.5) vs. StL, 5) Phi (-6.5) vs. Car
Andy – 1) SF +5 at NO, 2) KC -2 at Buf, 3) Chi-GB OVER 53.5, 4) STL +6.5 at Ari, 5) Car +6.5 at Phi
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