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Share your five weekly picks in the comments, play along.
Giants +4.5 vs. Broncos: The line looks like a classic overreaction to Week 1 events, Denver's big win and Big Blue's turnover party. Mind you, the Ravens outplayed the Broncos for a half and New York almost won in Dallas anyway, but why let that get in the way of the narrative and line flow. The Giants can move the ball through the air and I expect David Wilson to get a reprieve (geesh, the guy only has three NFL fumbles). New York has a shot to win outright.
Rams +5.5 at Falcons: St. Louis didn't cover for us last week but jumping back on them anyway, still see value here. Their outstanding defensive front was destructive against Arizona last week and more of the same is likely against an Atlanta offensive line that has all sorts of problems. I'm still not sure I really trust Sam Bradford in a Brian Schottenheimer offense, but those Jared Cook highlights were pretty. No reason the Rams can't hang around. I still don't expect Atlanta to be a playoff team.
Jaguars +5.5 at Raiders: Everyone knows how awful Blaine Gabbert is (especially when he's hurt), but Jacksonville's Week 1 collapse was also tied to an excellent Kansas City defense. Keep in mind the Chiefs defense placed four defenders in the Pro Bowl (and Brandon Flowers wasn't one of them); the crummy offense drove the 2-14 record. Chad Henne gives the Jacksonville offense a chance, and the bloated line provides a handy backboard. How can anyone spot a big number with this Raiders team?
Seahawks -3 vs. Niners: Some home fields are worth three points in the NFL, some probably less than that. In Seattle, the normal calibration rules don't apply. Two things to remember about the Niners: they got destroyed in their last visit here, and their pass defense isn't anything special.
(As this goes to post, I realize we lost with three of these teams last week. That's not intentional, but it's also not surprising. Lines often overreact and show recency bias, especially in September.)