Lames: The Dougie Dance ends in Denver

Roto Arcade

Each week the Noise highlights 10 bold names who he believes are destined to torpedo your team leave egg on his face. For those playing the Lames home edition, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo! leagues to qualify. As an accountability advocate, results, whether genius or moronic, will post the following week using the scoring system shown here. If you're a member of TEAM HUEVOS, post your Week 13 Lames in the comments section below.

Doug Martin, TB, RB (93-percent started)
Matchup: at Den
Truthfully, the respect I house for Martin is unparalleled. Entering the season, few fanalysts were more bullish on the rookie than yours truly. As predicted, he's taken advantage of a fantastic situation and then some. On pace for a remarkable 2,011 total yards and 14 touchdowns, his end season line may soon be the greatest achievement by a rookie rusher in NFL history, eclipsing the astonishing freshman campaign of Adrian Peterson. What's equally incredible, he's gripped the pigskin 37 fewer times than Arian Foster yet trails the position's current pacesetter by a tiny 3.1 fantasy points. Can you say "efficient?" Still, no running back, no matter how special, is completely immune from a letdown. When a daunting matchup looms the 'Always Start your Studs' theory isn't foolproof. The Broncos have sniffed out the run terrifically this year. Von Miller is their bloodhound. The spectacled linebacker ranks No. 1 against the run regardless of position per Pro Football Focus. Collectively, only four rushers have crossed the chalk on the ground against Denver this year. And, overall, the Mile High Monsters have limited RBs to just 3.6 yards per carry. Martin will get his customary 20-23 touches, but in a hostile environment and given the strong odds Tampa will play from behind much of the day, he may resemble more Feeble Ferret than Muscle Hamster. Then again, the last time he was featured in this space he shattered team records.

Fearless Forecast: 20 carries, 69 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.7 fantasy points

Chris Johnson, Ten, RB (85-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Hou
With former offensive coordinator Chris Palmer no longer in the picture, wholesale changes could be underway in Tennessee, a strategic shift that may not necessarily benefit Johnson. Promoted assistant Dowell Loggains greatly enhanced the production of Kerry Collins and Vince Young, a stunning feat of humanity, as quarterbacks coach/overseer of offensive quality control. His past successes support the belief Jake Locker could become the new point of emphasis in an offensive that has plenty of above average vertical weapons. Of course, this doesn't mean Tennessee will dramatically reduce Johnson's workload, but the 22.5 touches per game he received over the past four weeks may not be in the cards over the foreseeable future, particularly this week. Houston's defensive problems are deeply rooted in its secondary. Jonathan Joseph continues to deal with a tender hammy which has caused opponents to turn skyward. The loss of LB Brooks Reed is a major blow, but there is enough remaining talent to stamp out the rush. Plus, Wade Philips' 3-4 scheme is just that good. Voids up front are typically filled without a hitch. Houston's rush TD-less streak may have ended last week in Detroit, but a new one is slated to begin in Week 13. Keep in mind, the Texans have surrendered only 3.9 yards per carry and the fewest fantasy points to RBs. Yes, he went for 100-plus against Houston a few weeks ago, but expect CJ2Lame to make a cameo.

Fearless Forecast: 17 carries, 74 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.1 fantasy points

Marques Colston, NO, WR (91-percent started)
Matchup: at Atl
Given the humiliating state of Philly's secondary, do you think the Eagles front office sorely regrets dealing Asante Samuel? If not, they certainly should. The Falcons defensive back flexed shutdown muscle several times this season. Passers have tallied an uneventful 66.1 QB rating and top targets have averaged just 35.3 yards per game against him. As Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith and others have found out this season, the corner is one of the nastiest blanketers in the business. Colston has performed admirably for much of the season, netting 11.2 fantasy points in standard formats, the 13th-best total among WRs. But his No. 30 ranking in that category since Week 7 has left a lot to be desired, an unfortunate byproduct of New Orleans' spread-the-wealth system. In their first matchup Week 10, Colston's bland yardage afternoon (3-26) was saved by a touchdown. In the rematch, don't bank on him being as fortunate.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 41 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.1 fantasy points

Jordy Nelson, GB, WR (86-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Min
Growing up as a loud, generally obnoxious child in Central Illinois, my grandfather always told me to never judge a hooker by her boots. Or was it book by its cover? Whichever nugget of wisdom he imparted on me, it applies to Nelson's matchup in Week 13. Since his return from a pulled hammy three weeks ago, Nelson bared few fruits. His torching of Corey Webster in the first quarter last week at The Met was his first reception of 20-plus yards since Week 7. At first glance, most casual observers would automatically assume the Packer is poised for a major outburst. Minnesota, after all, has surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks. But there are a pair of hindering forces acting against the target this week: 1) Greg Jennings is slated to return, 2) Antoine Winfield is damn good. Speaking to the former, Jennings, though he may be eased back in, is sure to cut into Jordy's workload. Prior to to his prolonged absence, he averaged 7.3 targets per game in three contests. As for the latter, Winfield has allowed a marginal 67.5 QB rating this year. Not only stiff against the run, he's occasionally smothered his assignments. Throw in Randall Cobb's growing role and Nelson's low target total over the past two weeks (9), and he's more WR3 material in Week 13.

Fearless Forecast: 3 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.5 fantasy points

Antonio Gates, SD, TE (77-percent started)
Matchup: vs. Cin
If there's a television character that Gates best resembles it has to be Herschel from 'The Walking Dead.' Though intelligent, wily and generally tough, the graybeard looks like a rapidly aging player hopping around on a peg leg. Though 'healthy,' he isn't gaining wide separation from defenders like he used to, even when gifted favorable zones. Simply, the soft spots are there, he's just too slow to take advantage of them. His No. 32 ranking in pass rating per Pro Football Focus and shrinking per game output in traditional formats (5.3 over since Week 8) supports that observation. The man is not just in decline, he's sinking to the bottom of the ocean with lead weights strapped to his ankles. Due to its bracketing nature in downfield coverage, Cincy is exploitable across the middle. On the season, the Bengals have allowed 8.3 standard fantasy points against them, the 11th-most in the league. But it's extremely hard to trust a once unstoppable tight end in the advanced stages of rigor mortis.

Fearless Forecast: 3 receptions, 26 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 4.8 fantasy points



Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their "Lames" (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader Record: 38-48, 44.1%

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