OK, so Kevin Millwood(notes) did it again. He beat the Jays on Thursday, and it was another effort in which he was unusually dependent on his fielders -- check the defensive gems here and here. Millwood held Toronto scoreless over 7.2 innings in Arlington, coaxing 12 groundball outs, 10 flyballs and just one K.
That hardly seems like a winning formula going forward, but the pitch-to-contact thing is working right now.
Honestly, I wouldn't touch Millwood with Dibiase's roster. Millwood's current BABIP is .256, his K/9 is 4.76, and his ERA is now almost two runs lower than his FIP. If you can find a trading partner, get something done. If you can't, well...at least you've got the N.L. West ahead in interleague play.
But enough about Millwood. On Wednesday we presented a long list of players who have ERAs substantially lower than their FIPs (Fielding Independent Pitching), and we promised to get to the flipside later in the week. Below you'll find this week's third mouthwash-colored spreadsheet (new blog record). This time we're listing pitchers who've had relatively poor luck in the earned run department, at least according to one shorthand method of looking at such things.
These guys are not all buy-low candidates, of course. REPEAT: We are NOT recommending that you immediately trade for every player on the list, nor are we saying that all of them are available at a discount in your league. It's possible to be both very bad and unlucky, like Andy Sonnanstine(notes). He would not fit my description of a buy-low. Two weeks ago Jon Lester(notes) would have been a nice example of a buy, but his recent starts reminded owners why they drafted him (15 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 23 Ks). Similar story with Gavin Floyd(notes).
Still, there are plenty of widely available names here who deserve a look, beginning with the two at the top of the list...
Yeah, I know: "Too blue, didn't read."
You'll note that the list above is loaded with walkers. Jonathan Sanchez(notes), Fausto Carmona(notes), Clayton Kershaw(notes), Manny Parra(notes) and Ian Snell(notes) lead all pitchers in BB/9, while Francisco Liriano(notes) and Jorge De La Rosa(notes) aren't far behind.
Photo via Getty Images. Data via Fangraphs, 6/11.