How Blackhawks' lottery odds changed after upset win over Penguins
How Hawks' lottery odds changed after upset win over Pens originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
The Blackhawks pulled off a huge upset win over the desperate Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday, and their lottery odds changed because of it.
With the win, the Blackhawks fell from 32nd — based on points percentage — to 30th place in the standings, meaning they went from having the best to third-highest odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick. Columbus picked up a point against Philadelphia but slipped to last because of Chicago's win.
Here's where things stand going into Wednesday night:
29th: San Jose — 60 points with 2 games left
30th: Chicago — 58 points with 1 game left
31st: Anaheim — 58 points with 1 game left
32nd: Columbus — 57 points with 2 games left
The Blackhawks can still finish anywhere between 29th and 32nd. If San Jose picks up at least one point in one of their final two games, the best Chicago could finish is 30th. If San Jose loses in regulation both games and Chicago wins its final one in any fashion, Chicago would finish 29th.
The first tiebreaker is regulation wins, which Chicago leads in that category among the bottom-four teams with 18. San Jose has 16, Columbus has 15 and Anaheim has 13.
The next tiebreaker is regulation plus overtime wins, a category Chicago also leads with 24. Columbus has 23, San Jose has 21 and Anaheim has 20.
As it stands, here's what the odds look like for the Blackhawks if they do end up finishing 30th, according to Tankathon:
No. 1 overall: 11.5%
No. 2 overall: 11.5%
No. 3 overall: 7.5%
No. 4 overall: 40.7%
No. 5 overall: 28.8%
There are two paths for Chicago to finish last:
The first and most likely scenario: Anaheim earns at least one point in its last game, Columbus picks up at least two out of a possible four points in its final two games, and Chicago loses in regulation on Thursday.
The second and least likely to happen: If Anaheim wins in any fashion and Columbus earns at least three out of a possible four points in its final two games, Chicago could pick up a point on Thursday and still finish last. A win for Chicago, however, would ruin those chances because of the tiebreakers, as noted above.
Columbus wraps up its season on Friday against Buffalo, and that game could have major implications. The tank watch is in full swing with two days left.
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