Some Blackbaud (NASDAQ:BLKB) Shareholders Are Down 28%

In this article:

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Unfortunately the Blackbaud, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLKB) share price slid 28% over twelve months. That contrasts poorly with the market return of -4.5%. Looking at the longer term, the stock is down 27% over three years. Unfortunately the last month hasn't been any better, with the share price down 32%. We do note, however, that the broader market is down 21% in that period, and this may have weighed on the share price.

See our latest analysis for Blackbaud

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Unfortunately Blackbaud reported an EPS drop of 74% for the last year. The share price fall of 28% isn't as bad as the reduction in earnings per share. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have expected earnings to drop faster. Indeed, with a P/E ratio of 223.98 there is obviously some real optimism that earnings will bounce back.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

NasdaqGS:BLKB Past and Future Earnings, March 14th 2020
NasdaqGS:BLKB Past and Future Earnings, March 14th 2020

This free interactive report on Blackbaud's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Blackbaud's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Blackbaud's TSR of was a loss of 27% for the year. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Blackbaud shareholders are down 27% for the year (even including dividends) . Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 4.5%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4.1%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Blackbaud (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

Advertisement