Bills vs. Ravens: 7 things to watch for and a prediction

A battle of the class of 2018 NFL Draft’s cream of the crop at quarterback, and of course, a survive and advance scenario again for the Buffalo Bills.

After notching their first playoff win in 25 years, can the Bills (13-3) find the win column twice in the same postseason for the first time since their Super Bowl era in the 90s? The Baltimore Ravens will certainly have something to say about that on Saturday at Bills Stadium during the AFC Divisional round.

With that, here are seven things to watch for and a prediction ahead of the Bills’ AFC Divisional round meeting against the Ravens (11-5):

Dealing with Lamar

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

From a Buffalo perspective, the No. 1 thing everyone will be watching is how good or bad Lamar Jackson does. If the Ravens quarterback can't get going, naturally the Bills will have a better shot in this one. Last year the Bills contained him well and will look to do so again. He was held to only 40 rushing yards but did toss three touchdown passes. This one could come down Buffalo putting a spy on him such as Tremaine Edmunds or someone else, or just trying to keep him in the pocket, forcing him to use his arm more. The good thing is that Buffalo would have had a much better look at winning that game... had their offense last season been better... and yeah, a bit better offense this time around for the Bills.

The rushing defense again

Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins/ Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills won't only have to worry about Jackson. Most times people think of the Ravens rushing the ball and defer to Jackson, but Baltimore is one of three teams ever in NFL history to have three rushers with 700-plus yards in a single-season. Two of those three were the Ravens this year and last year. In 2020, those three guys are Jackson, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Buffalo's run defense has had mixed results this season, but don't just think the Bills only have to worry about Jackson. In the traditional sense, the Bills have to be ready for Baltimore to run the ball. Again though, the best remedy here might be the Bills offense. Put up points and the Ravens will hand the ball off less.

Josh Allen vs. Ravens defensive turnaround

Bills' Josh Allen. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Let's talk some Bills now. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has been on a tear all season long and continued that with another big game vs. the Colts during Wild Card weekend. In his last seven games, Allen has the most touchdowns of any quarterback in the NFL (22) and second-most passing yards (1,997). But as of recent, the Ravens defense, overall, has been good, but their pass defense especially. Over the last four games, the Ravens have held their opponents to 205, 215, 48 and 158 yards passing, respectively. The latter came last week against the Titans and their QB, Ryan Tannehill. In the Wild Card round as well, the Ravens defense held 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry to 40 yards rushing. That's a great job. Having said that, those four opponents round out as the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals. Allen's in the MVP conversation while all those teams have quarterbacks that most would rank near the bottom of the NFL, or at least bottom half. Allen will be a much bigger test for them. Keys in this one for the Ravens could be cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. One of them will get the unlucky task over cover Bills wideout Stefon Diggs.

A tight end to worry about

Ravens tight end Mark Andrews Gannett photo)

The Bills defense struggled to cover tight ends last week against the Colts. Indy is a team with a solid quarterback, but some average wideouts. While the Ravens might have even worse receivers than the Colts, their No. 1 tight end is certainly better than most. In 2020, Mark Andrews was a top-five tight end in terms of receiving yards (701) and added seven touchdowns. The Bills have to take Andrews out of the game and it'll be a tall task. Let's not just look back at Wild Card weekend and think this was just a one-off thing. The Bills allowed 993 receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season. Only the New York Jets were worse at covering tight ends.

Cleaner play could do the distance

A football and penalty flags as seen. Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Ravens and Bills were both among the most penalized teams in the NFL this season. Usually a go-to for the Bills in a game is to win the turnover battle, something they were good at doing this year. They had 26 total, tied for third-best, while the Ravens had 22 total takeaways. Both teams were tied with a plus-four takeaway differential as well. But penalties could be the bigger factor in this one. The Ravens were flagged 126 times, the second-most in the NFL in 2020. The Bills were just behind them with the fourth-most (122). Don't negate big plays... and well, also don't turn the ball over.

How does Devin do?

Bills running back Devin Singletary. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

A lot of talk this week surrounded who would take Zack Moss's place in the Bills lineup this weekend. Regardless of that answer, it's still going to Devin Singletary's show. Singletary is likely to get almost all carries for Buffalo against the Ravens. Can that extended run help Singletary get into the flow of a game more? For what it's works from Weeks 3-5 at the start of 2020, Moss missed three games with a hamstring injury. In those three outings, Singletary had 42 carries, 152 rushing yards (3.62 avg) with a touchdown. Singletary also had 10 catches for 79 in that time frame with a receiving touchdown. The Ravens allowed 4.6 yards per carry this season on the ground, defensively. That tied them with five other teams, one of which is the Bills, around the middle of the pack in the NFL.

The fans are back again

Early Bills fans before the Bills and Colts playoff game.(Gannett photo)

Fans will be allowed back in Bills Stadium again on Saturday, once again, 6,700s worth. While not close to a full house, in the Wild Card round, it did seem to play an impact on the game. Colts QB Philip Rivers was spotted having to yell to his offensive linemen and receivers a couple of times during plays when changing things up. Good work, Bills Mafia. Maybe these NFL players got too used to playing in front of no crowds? Do your thing again, fans.

Prediction: Bills 28, Ravens 24

A combination of reasoning has us thinking Bills. First, the Bills run defense has to show up. This isn't to say that Jackson won't get his... he's going to move those chains, you can count on it. But the Bills did a solid job against him last time around, and for the most part, have played better defensively overall since the middle point of the season. In addition, the Ravens defense has played good recently, yes. Against who, though? The last time they faced a good quarterback it was the Browns' Baker Mayfield who had 355 passing yards on them. One could argue that Allen's a step above Mayfield. Maybe in the MVP conversation, having better odds than the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes currently at winning that. Speaking of Mahomes, he put up 385 passing yards on the Ravens earlier this season. Good quarterbacks can put up yards on this Baltimore defense and while it's easier said than done, we're expecting the Bills to not be stuck in the mud early again this week like they were vs. the Colts, leading to good things. Bills 30, Ravens 24.