How the Big 12 stacks up in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index
Entering the final month of play in the Big 12, there’s a tight race at the top for contention in the Big 12 title game.
TCU and Kansas State are leading the pack, but in a deep Big 12, the two teams that finish one and two in the standings at the end of the season, could look differently.
Though it’s unrealistic and incredibly improbable, Oklahoma is one of six teams with a chance to win the Big 12 title in 2022. They have a 0.1% chance to win the title. Realistically, five teams still have a shot to make it to Arlington and take home a Big 12 crown.
In addition to TCU and Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, and Oklahoma State still have a shot. A lot would need to go write for the Bears, Longhorns, and Cowboys, but with how the Big 12 has been this year, it seems like anyone has a chance to win any game on Saturday.
Let’s take a look at how the conference ranks in the updated ESPN Football Power Index after week nine.
Texas Longhorns
Texas quarterback Hudson Card (1) snaps the ball during the game against Alabama at Royal Memorial Stadium on Sep. 10, 2022. Aaron E. Martinez / American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK
ESPN FPI Rank: 6
Projected Win-Loss: 8.1-4.3
Chance to Win the Big 12: 26.3%
That close loss to Alabama heavily influenced strength of schedule for the Longhorns. Since then, Texas has lost to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Could they be in line for another disappointing second half finish?
TCU Horned Frogs
Oct 29, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Kendre Miller (33) runs for a touchdown during the second quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 14
Projected Win-Loss: 10.6-2.2
Chance to Win the Big 12: 41.5%
TCU came in at seventh in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. They’re going to have a tough hill to climb because of a nonconference schedule that included Colorado, SMU, and Tarleton. The Horned Frogs are going to need some help to make the playoff.
Baylor Bears
Oct 29, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Blake Shapen (12) passes against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the first half at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 15
Projected Win-Loss: 7.0-5.1
Chance to Win the Big 12: 6.3%
Baylor certainly hasn’t had the season they would have hoped for. However, they still have a shot at the Big 12 title game, but would have to win out and get a lot of help to get there.
Kansas State Wildcats
Oct 29, 2022; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats running back Deuce Vaughn (22) looks for room to run during the fourth quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 16
Projected Win-Loss: 8.4-4.0
Chance to Win the Big 12: 20.6%
Kansas State’s blowout win over Oklahoma State put them in the driver’s seat to be the second team in the Big 12 title game. Nothing’s guaranteed though as the Wildcats still have to face Texas, Baylor, West Virginia, and Kansas the rest of the way.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oct 29, 2022; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats running back Deuce Vaughn (22) runs away from Oklahoma State Cowboys safety Thomas Harper (13) for a touchdown in the first quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 24
Projected Win-Loss: 8.4-3.8
Chance to Win the Big 12: 4.9%
With losses to TCU and Kansas State, Oklahoma State faces an uphill climb to get back to the Big 12 title game.
Oklahoma Sooners
AMES, IA – OCTOBER 29: Wide receiver Jalil Farooq #3 of the Oklahoma Sooners is tackled by defensive end Joey Petersen #52, and defensive back Jeremiah Cooper #19 of the Iowa State Cyclones as he rushed for yards in the first half of play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 29, 2022 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
ESPN FPI Rank: 28
Projected Win-Loss: 7.1-4.9
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0.1%
A 7-5 finish to the 2022 season would mean the Sooners went 2-2 in their final four games, but would mean they went 4-2 after the three-game losing streak.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Hunter Dekkers (12) celebrates with team mates after a touchdown against the Ohio Bobcats during the first quarter at Jack Trice Stadium Saturday, Sept. 17, 2022, in Ames, Iowa. Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK
ESPN FPI Rank: 33
Projected Win-Loss: 5-7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0%
If Iowa State had any semblance of consistency on offense, they might be a Big 12 title contender. Their defense has been that good. While they haven’t won a Big 12 game, they’ve only lost one by more than a score.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oct 22, 2022; Lubbock, Texas, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Joey McGuire sings the school song after the Red Raiders defeated the West Virginia Mountaineers at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 42
Projected Win-Loss: 5.7-6.3
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0%
Texas Tech is a hard team to get a read on. One week they look really good, like their loss to Oklahoma State and win over West Virginia, and the next week they look shaky like they did in their loss to Baylor.
After a promising 4-1 start, the Red Raiders have gone 1-3 since and have tough matchups with TCU, Kansas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma remaining.
Kansas Jayhawks
Oct 22, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks running back Devin Neal (4) scores a touchdown against the Baylor Bears in the second half at McLane Stadium. Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 47
Projected Win-Loss: 6.2-5.8
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0%
One can’t help but wonder what the Jayhawks’ season would have been had Jalon Daniels not gotten hurt. Of course, you can do that with most teams. Still, the Kansas Jayhawks have shown vast improvements over the last couple of seasons. Can they finish strong and reach a bowl game? It’s certainly on the table.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Oct 29, 2022; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; A West Virginia Mountaineers cheerleader performs during the second quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Rank: 48
Projected Win-Loss: 4.3-7.7
Chance to Win the Big 12: 0%
If West Virginia were ever going to make a move toward contention, this felt like the year. However, the defense has fallen apart and the offense has been too inconsistent. They’ve been good at home, beating Baylor and hanging with TCU, but not great on the road.
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