USFL betting: We're looking to a favorite in Week 4

·Betting analyst
·2 min read

Last week was my first attempt at analyzing the USFL. After a couple of weeks of data collecting, I gave it a shot. USFL wagering: 1. Pam: 0. We will try again! Nobody ever got better at something new by quitting. Here’s what I see for Week 4 of the USFL.

Tampa Bay Bandits vs Birmingham Stallions (-3.5)

Over/Under 40.5 (odds via BetMGM)

The strengths of the Stallions set up really well against the weaknesses of the Bandits. What is one way to keep a team from scoring? Turnovers. Birmingham is first in takeaways with seven forced turnovers, four of which have been interceptions. Tampa Bay leads in giveaways with seven turnovers, five of which have been interceptions. Four of those have come from starting quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, which is more than his two passing touchdowns.

What forces turnovers? Pressure. The Stallions that are second in the league in sacks generated, while Ta'amu is second in the league in sacks allowed.

If interceptions are a risk, can the Bandits find other ways to put up points? Collectively, they only have three rushing scores through three games between Ta’amu, Juwan Washington and B.J. Emmons.

Kicking is for losers but if the Bandits can make their way downfield, we could see more field goal attempts as TB’s Tyler Rausa is averaging two field goals per game while hitting 67%. Forcing field goals instead of giving up touchdowns is good, even better if those field goals result in misses.

Prediction: Stallions -3.5

BIRMINGHAM, AL - APRIL 30: Birmingham Stallions quarterback J'Mar Smith (6) runs with the ball against the New Orleans Breakers during the USFL game on April 30, 2022 at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BIRMINGHAM, AL - APRIL 30: Birmingham Stallions quarterback J'Mar Smith (6) runs with the ball against the New Orleans Breakers during the USFL game on April 30, 2022 at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)