Betting: Prop Queen's Top Plays for NFL Wild Card Sunday
The Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein, gives her best plays for Sunday's slate of NFL Wild Card games.
Video Transcript
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ARIEL EPSTEIN: Happy football Sunday. I'm the Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein. I have a prop for each game today on this Sunday wildcard slate. I'm starting with the 1 o'clock game between the Philadelphia Eagles, who are road dogs, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My favorite prop not only this week, it's been all of the playoffs last year, it's the Bucs linebacker Devin White over 6 and 1/2 total tackles.
The averages are all messed up, because without the linebacker on the Bucs Lavonte David, who's coming off the IR, actually this game, White's only averaging about five total tackles per game. However, with David on the field, White's averaging just under nine total tackles per game.
With this prop if, let's just say, White had a prop of 6 and 1/2 total tackles, well he's gone over it in 9 out of the 12 games with David on the field. White also had at least 10 tackles in every playoff game last season. I'm taking the over, 6 and 1/2 total tackles on White.
For the second game, I'm betting the over, 25 and 1/2 yards on the longest catch by San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Samuel leads the 49ers in longest catches. He also is on a team in San Francisco who, since week eight, had led the league in most explosive plays.
This helps a lot when you're up against the Dallas Cowboys, who allow for the seventh most receiving yards to wide receivers. The Cowboys have also allowed for 42 catches of 25 or more yards. Samuels's gone over the number in 12 games this season, I'm taking his over.
There is one more San Francisco wide receiver. I have to bet the longest catch on, it's the wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, over 21 and 1/2 yards on his longest reception. If I don't bet this and one hits and the other doesn't, or they both hit, I'll be disappointed I didn't take both.
I love Aiyuk on the over, because when he's up against the team bottom ten in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, Aiyuk's gone over 21 and 1/2 yards on his longest catch in four out of those six games. Aiyuk is another deep threat, he has the second-most catches for over 20 yards on the 49ers. Give me the over on him and Samuel-- why not, it's the wild card.
For the last game of the night, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers as double-digit dogs at the Kansas City Chiefs I'm betting the over, 10 and 1/2 yards on the longest catch by Steelers running back Najee Harris. The Chiefs have tightened up their defense since the second half of the season. The one thing that they still haven't figured out: pass catching running backs.
The Chiefs have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs this season, 18 running backs in 17 games have had a catch for at least 11 yards. Harris went over the number in six out of the seven games when facing a defense bottom ten in receiving yards allowed to running backs. I'm betting that over, 10 and 1/2 yards on the longest catch by the Steelers running back.
Here's your Prop Queen recap. I'm betting the over, 6 and 1/2 tackles, on my Super Bowl MVP from 2020, Devin White, the over, 25 and 1/2 yards, on the longest reception for Deebo Samuel, the over, 21 and 1/2 yards, on the longest catch by Brandon Aiyuk, and the over, 10 and 1/2 yards, on the longest reception by Najee Harris.
That's it for me, your Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein, here on this football Sunday. Good luck. Bet $1 on any game, and win $100 free. Sign up now at betmgm.com/yahoospecial.
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