The Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein, gives her best plays for the NBA slate on Thursday, Jan. 27.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Happy Thursday. I'm the prop queen, Ariel Epstein. It's our first NBA prop queen and I am so excited because we can only go up from what happened yesterday. Thank you so much Wendell Carter Jr. for fouling out with nine rebounds on a double-double prop and an over 9 and 1/2 rebound prop. Whatever.
Time to move on to some bigger and better things, like one of the hottest players in the NBA. My first prop, I'm betting an under on him. I'm going-- Oh, I'm going to look crazy if this loses. I may look like a genius, if it hits.
Lakers are traveling to Philly to face the Sixers and I'm betting the under, 33 and 1/2 points on the Sixers center, Joel Embiid. The thing is, Embiid's gone under this number in 8 of his last 12 games. The Lakers defense is getting better they got back Anthony Davis who's one of their best defenders.
Looking back at the last four games where Embiid went over this number, it's solely because he went up against teams with no big men. You may look at the game against the Pelicans. Well, look at the box score. Their big man Jonas Valanciunas didn't play.
That's why Embiid been going over 33 and 1/2 points. Look at the games before that. The games before that with actual big men on the floor, Embiid's key numbers were 31, 32.
This is going to be close. I could see Embiid putting up anywhere between 28-32 points. The thing is, 33 and 1/2 just seems way too high when you have someone like Anthony Davis and the Lakers playing better defense now that he's on the floor. Take that under, 33 and 1/2 points on Joel Embiid.
For the late game, the Golden State Warriors are hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves have been so bad when it comes to rebounding the ball, that's why I'm looking at the Golden State Warriors center Kevon Looney, over 8 and 1/2 rebounds tonight. Looney's played four different games against bottom 10 rebounding defenses without the leading rebounder on the Warriors, Draymond Green.
Every time that he's gone up against these defenses, he's had at least 10 rebounds. I'm betting the over, 8 and 1/2 rebounds on the Golden State Warriors center Kevon Looney. For my last prop, I'm betting the over 3 and 1/2 3-pointers made bad the All-Star of the Golden State Warriors, Steph Curry. Curry's been struggling from 3, don't get me wrong.
It's just a good get right spot. Minnesota in their last five games has ranked 24th in defensive rating against the three. Steph's been shooting just over 37% and he's gone 30 and 13 over 3 and 1/2 3-pointers made this season. Here's a little math equation.
If Curry is averaging just under 13 3-point attempts per game and he's shooting just over 37%, that should be equivalent to just under five 3-pointers made, not 3 and 1/2. He had two bad games. OK, it's a good bounce back spot.
Give me the over, 3 and 1/2 3-pointers made by Steph Curry tonight against Minnesota. Here's your prop queen NBA recap. I'm betting the under 33 and 1/2 points on Joel Embiid, over 8 and 1/2 rebounds on Kevon Looney, and over 3 and 1/2 3-pointers made by Steph Curry.
That's it for me, your prop queen, Ariel Epstein here on this NBA Thursday. Good luck tonight. That $10 and win $200 in free bets by signing up at BetMGM.com/YahooVIP. New customers only, must be 21 or older. Terms apply.